Airport landside traffic centers connect terminal arrivals with taxis, ride-hailing vehicles, private cars, buses, metro services, parking facilities, and terminal-area roadways. Peak arrivals can create coupled congestion across passenger queues, vehicle queues, pickup berths, storage areas, and access roads. This study proposes a QUBO-inspired computational framework for bottleneck diagnosis and dynamic dispatch in this setting. Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport serve as case airports. A five-minute state model links passenger arrivals, vehicle supply, pickup berth service, vehicle storage, and road capacity. Bottleneck diagnosis uses service intensity, road demand saturation, bottleneck frequency, queue severity, shadow-price leverage, and a composite congestion severity index. Two dispatch schemes are tested under consistent demand inputs: finite-action model predictive control and quadratic-unconstrained-binary-optimization-inspired simulated annealing. In the strong-peak baseline scenario, the QUBO-inspired method reduces the final passenger queue from 3445 to 2477 passengers at Shanghai Pudong and from 2053 to 1482 passengers at Hangzhou Xiaoshan. Case results indicate different dominant bottlenecks. Shanghai Pudong is more affected by road saturation, whereas Hangzhou Xiaoshan is more affected by pickup berth service. Robustness tests under demand, supply, service, road-capacity, modal-share, and random-noise perturbations show retained queue-reduction benefits under the tested uncertainty levels.
Checkpoint staffing requires accurate forecasts of when screening demand will occur, yet flight schedules record departure times rather than passenger arrival times at security checkpoints. This study develops a framework that converts known flight schedules into temporally aligned signals for forecasting hourly checkpoint throughput. Using 2023-2024 Transportation Security Administration throughput data and Cirium Diio flight schedules for Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, domestic and international seat capacity was distributed across pre-departure hours using truncated Poisson kernels. A Temporal Fusion Transformer then combined these schedule-derived arrival-intensity signals with historical throughput, scheduled activity, and temporal variables. Models were trained chronologically, with July-December 2024 reserved for testing, and evaluated against recurrent neural network and long short-term memory models across five random seeds. For direct six-hour forecasts, the proposed model achieved a weighted mean absolute percentage error of 9.33%, compared with 12.16% for the recurrent neural network and 11.37% for long short-term memory, while also producing the lowest errors during peak periods. With six-hour recursive updates, errors remained between 10.60% and 11.04% across 24-96 hour horizons, although longer horizons contained fewer valid forecast origins. By transforming scheduled departures into interpretable pre-departure screening-load signals without requiring passenger-flight matching, the framework supports advance staffing, lane-opening, and multiday checkpoint planning. Because observed throughput reflects realized processing rather than unconstrained arrivals, the forecasts should be interpreted together with local staffing, capacity, queue, and wait-time information.
Alex Porcayo, Yutian Pang, Maria Thomas +1cs.LG eess.AS
Airport surface operations increasingly constrain performance at high-throughput hubs. This study examines arrival taxi-in decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (KATL) and proposes a two-stage, data-driven decision aid that mirrors controller workflow. Stage I predicts the runway exit selected by an arriving aircraft. Stage II predicts whether, given that exit, the aircraft will cross the active departure runway at a designated point or use the end-around taxiway. Models are trained using ASDE-X surface trajectories, aircraft characteristics, ramp destinations, short-horizon traffic rates, and weather across multiple look-back windows. We benchmark nine classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and evaluate accuracy, macro-F1, precision-recall behavior, confusion matrices, Brier score, and Expected Calibration Error. Across east and west flows, XGBoost and LightGBM outperform Random Forest. Stage I achieves 0.86-0.89 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.40-0.50, while Stage II achieves 0.70-0.74 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.28-0.55. Feature-importance analysis shows that approach speed is the main driver of exit choice. Departure rate, crossing rate, ramp destination, and, for west flow, the selected exit are the strongest predictors of crossing versus end-around routing. Minority classes remain harder to predict because of feature-space overlap, as shown by t-SNE and UMAP analyses. The proposed framework supports controller situational awareness through calibrated, explainable predictions while preserving human responsibility for final routing decisions.