Spectral Outliers Reveal Dominant Learned Structure in Transformer Attention

We apply Marchenko-Pastur (MP) random matrix theory to pre-trained attention weights in order to separate each projection matrix into a random-like bulk and a set of spectral outliers. We validate this decomposition causally: zeroing the MP-identified outliers (signal) in Mistral-7B drives HellaSwag, MMLU, and PIQA close to random-chance performance, whereas zeroing a count-matched subset of bulk singular values causes smaller but non-negligible degradation. Across 11 pre-trained transformers we identify five recurring patterns: spectral outliers encode a dominant component of the learned structure; Q projections carry the most outliers; V projections under grouped-query attention lack a clean signal/noise separation; entry-level outliers form structured row-bands in Q and column-bands in O; and specific residual-stream dimensions persist as band outliers across layers in K and O. We close by outlining how these observations could inform parameter-efficient fine-tuning and structured pruning.

The Illusion of Equivalency: Statistical Characterization of Quantization Effects in LLMs

Post-training quantization is widely used to deploy large language models in resource-constrained settings, yet its evaluation relies almost exclusively on accuracy and perplexity. We show that these metrics fail to capture behavioral changes induced by quantization. We introduce correctness agreement, a decision-level metric that measures overlap in correct predictions between a base model and its quantized variants, independent of absolute accuracy. Across multiple models and quantization schemes from 8-bit to 2-bit, we find that behavioral divergence emerges under moderate quantization even when task performance appears preserved. To explain this effect, we analyze quantization as a structural operator on attention weights and quantify layer-wise distortions using statistical and distributional measures. Our results reveal non-linear breakpoints at low bit-widths and show that query and key projections are consistently more sensitive than value and output projections. These findings expose an illusion of equivalence between base and quantized models and motivate behavioral evaluation beyond conventional performance metrics.

A Preliminary Study on Explaining Risk of Code Changes using LLM-Based Prediction Models

Predictions by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models are often received skeptically unless they are paired with intelligible explanations. In the context of just-in-time defect prediction, highlighting small portions of a software change (diff) -- beyond rule-based lints -- where risk may be concentrated has not yet been extensively investigated. In this work, we leverage attention weights from an LLM-based Diff Risk Score (DRS) model to highlight parts of a diff that the model focuses on when predicting risk. We aggregate token-level attention into interpretable code units (lines, hunks, and files), and present the top-K units to developers as a lightweight form of guidance during code review. We evaluate our approach using expert-labeled changes that have caused real outages. Results show that the highlighted snippets cover expert-labeled outage-causing change lines 53.85% of the time when highlighting the top-2 hunks, while requiring developers to review 26.28% of the changed lines on average. Because attention is produced during standard model inference, the approach is scalable for large development workflows and can be surfaced in the code review UI with low additional latency.