The prediction of student engagement from the online tutoring videos is difficult because engagement is a multidimensional construct comprising distinct behavioral, emotional, and cognitive states. A reliable prediction requires bringing together different types of behavioral signals as well as expressive cues. Through our analysis of the CASED dataset, it is clear that engagement prediction gets even harder due to the high inter-person variability as well as the subjectivity of the engagement annotation. To tackle these challenges, we develop a multimodal framework that integrates the implicit spatiotemporal features extracted from pretrained video, audio, and image encoders along with structured behavioral modalities like head pose, gaze, facial action units, emotion, and wavelet-based audio features. We integrate these modalities via a Perceiver IO latent bottleneck. Moreover, student and instructor personalities are modeled as variational posteriors over learnable embeddings to enable partial pooling across participants. We employ evidential regression and spectral-normalized Gaussian process classification heads for uncertainty-aware prediction to further improve robustness and calibration. Benchmark on the CASED challenge test set shows that all participating methods converge near random-chance performance, revealing the difficulty of the dataset. In this highly ambiguous regime, our framework achieves competitive performance while uniquely offering well-calibrated uncertainty metrics, demonstrating that reliable risk-quantification is an essential prerequisite for deploying engagement models in real-world educational tools.
Sherzod Turaev, Mary John, Jaloliddin Rustamov +4cs.AI
Understanding learners' cognitive and affective states underpins adaptive educational systems and effective teaching. Although research links nonverbal cues to internal states, no framework calibrates them to evidence. We present the Nonverbal Syntax Framework, drawn from a systematic review of 908 studies and 17,043 cue-state mappings (Turaev et al., 2026). The framework addresses three challenges: terminological fragmentation (behaviors described inconsistently), evidence heterogeneity (single observations to replicated findings), and state ambiguity (similar patterns indicating multiple states). Normalization consolidated 5,537 state labels into 2,010 canonical states (63.7%) and 11,521 cues into 6,434 normalized cues (44.2%) across nine behavioral channels. Dual-evidence assessment separately evaluates Component Evidence (coverage of cues and states) and Relationship Evidence (independent studies per cue-state link). 52% of "Very High" relationships rest on one paper, so separation enables calibrated rather than overconfident inference from preliminary findings. The framework's four levels comprise a Cue Vocabulary of 6,434 indicators classified as observable/instrumental; State Clusters linking 2,010 states to indicative cues; State Profiles with multimodal behavioral signatures and actionable specifications; and Discriminative Analysis distinguishing 1,215 confusable state pairs. We identify 480 actionable R1-R4 relationships (three or more independent papers), the replicated core of six decades of research, covering 35.5% of mappings across 47 key learning states and 111 distinct indicators. The remaining 91.5% (9,653 single-paper findings) form exploratory hypotheses for replication. The framework gives researchers an empirical foundation for identifying gaps, practitioners evidence-based tools for state inference, and technologists validated features for multimodal detection.