From Tokens to Semantics: Leveraging Complementary Signals for Hallucination Detection in Black-Box LLMs

When LLMs support public-facing or high-stakes workflows, missed fabrications can harm users and institutions, while false alarms consume limited human-review capacity. When no trusted context or reference document is available, we study two signals accessible through black-box model APIs: semantic entropy, which measures disagreement among sampled response meanings, and uncertainty derived from token log-probabilities. Their failure modes can be complementary: semantic entropy becomes uninformative when responses form one semantic cluster, while token uncertainty can miss consistently confident errors. We extend token-based uncertainty detection by aggregating token-level signals across sampled responses through our TopK method, evaluate the hybrid CoCoA method, which combines target-response uncertainty with semantic dissimilarity, and propose and study two supervised methods: Gated, which routes single-cluster cases to an aggregated-token-feature classifier, and Stacked, which learns jointly from semantic uncertainty and broader token features. We evaluate seven benchmarks, including five public benchmarks (four text datasets and multimodal handwritten-cheque extraction) and two constructed benchmarks (Financial Summaries and Long-Text QA), using four language models. In our evaluation across models and datasets, Stacked gave the best performance in nearly half of the cases, while TopK and CoCoA remain competitive without supervised training labels, although their thresholds require careful calibration. No method is universally strongest. We therefore evaluate performance at false-positive-rate budgets from 1% to 15%, assess their sensitivity to generation and calibration choices, and examine variation across dataset characteristics.

BiG-SURE - Bipartite Graph for Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation of LLMs

Reliable uncertainty estimation is a crucial requirement for deploying large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) in safety-critical settings, especially when the model parameters are not accessible (black-box). We propose BiG-SURE, an uncertainty estimator based on cross-temperature semantic agreement. The method samples low-temperature responses as stable semantic anchors and high-temperature responses as probes under meaning-preserving input transformations. It then constructs an anchor-probe Bipartite Graph (BiG) using NLI-based entailment scores and defines confidence through the normalized squared spectral energy of this matrix, with uncertainty given by its complement. This bipartite graph-based Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation (SURE) score measures whether high-temperature probes remain semantically aligned with the model's stable low-temperature belief or not. We evaluate BiG-SURE on text QA, multilingual QA, and multimodal QA tasks across multiple model families. In these experiments, BiG-SURE improves average abstention AUROC over prior black-box uncertainty estimators, while remaining simple, unsupervised, and applicable to black-box model settings.

POOL: Propagated Uncertainty Over Lookalikes

Black-box large language models need confidence scores that can separate likely-correct from likely-incorrect outputs, enabling systems to prioritize human review, route uncertain cases to stronger models, or choose abstention thresholds on development data. Yet existing confidence estimators face a cost-quality trade-off: verbal confidence is cheap but is often overconfident, while sampling-based uncertainty is more informative but scales linearly with the number of samples per query. We propose \textsc{POOL} (\emph{Propagated Uncertainty Over Lookalikes}),a cost-efficient framework that addresses this trade-off taking inspiration from group-testing.\textsc{POOL} clusters query stems with overlaps, evaluates a base estimator on representative medoids, softly propagates confidence scores to nearby queries, and selectively evaluates high-disagreement cases. We instantiate this framework with \textsc{Hy@}$p$, a hybrid estimator that combines verbal confidence with spectral answer diversity computed from the negative von Neumann entropy of sampled answer embeddings.Across six domains from three datasets and five black-box LLMs, \textsc{Hy@}5 achieves higher average AUROC than verbal confidence and \textsc{Vn@}10 sampling while using half as many samples as \textsc{Vn@}10. \textsc{POOL}-\textsc{Hy@}5 retains 93.5--97.9\% of its AUROC while saving 19.3--39.3\% of generations. On paraphrase-dense workloads, generation savings rise to 73-76\%, showing that semantic redundancy can be leveraged to lower confidence-estimation costs.

Hierarchy-Aware Supervised Uncertainty Estimation for Black-box LLM Taxonomic Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for scientific decision support, yet reliable confidence estimation remains difficult in black-box settings. We study uncertainty estimation for hierarchical taxonomic reasoning generated by a black-box LLM in a long-tailed biodiversity monitoring pipeline. Using proxy features extracted by an open-source tool LLM, we train lightweight supervised estimators with hierarchy-aware supervision to predict rank-wise correctness. Across three tool LLMs, the supervised estimators consistently outperform a token-likelihood baseline for micro discrimination and selective prediction under a single global rejection threshold, improving micro AUROC from 0.57 to 0.75--0.80. The best results are achieved by a rank-specific multi-head design (H3), suggesting that accounting for hierarchical output structure is important when a unified abstention rule is required. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/uoguelph-mlrg/hierarchy-aware-llm-uq

Improved Confidence Estimates for Black-Box Large Language Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs). Existing methods, from verbalized confidence to ones requiring multiple generations, are often zero-shot and produce scores quantifying uncertainty without the need for labelled data. Nonetheless, in practice one must always evaluate their performance on a dataset of interest before deployment. In this work we show that, by leveraging this dataset, we consistently outperform these existing scores. Specifically, we build simple classifiers that predict LLM response correctness by using these scores and the correctness of similar queries as features. Our method produces minimal computational overhead, making it a cheap and straightforward enhancement for UQ in LLMs for real-world applications.

Dead text or binding clause? Measuring and restoring constraint influence in black-box LLM dialogues

Multi-turn dialogues let users revoke constraints as easily as impose them, but revocation does not reliably take effect: models keep enacting withdrawn requirements (occasionally beneath comments asserting their removal), a failure we call \emph{behavioral relapse}, or revocation inertia. No existing instrument measures this influence per clause, predicts it before delivery, or repairs it under matched budgets. \sysname{} closes the three gaps through the model API alone: a contract ledger pairs every constraint with an executable checker, records revocations as tombstones, and compiles the net constraint state ahead of time into a single specification; a sequential ablation probe measures per-clause adherence and incremental behavioral effect; a repair ladder operates under token- and attempt-matched budgets. On \dataname{} (\NTasks{} HumanEval tasks, \NClauses{} verified checkers), relapse at an 8B operating point climbs from \ScaleDelayedMTwo{} to \ScaleDelayedMEight{} as constraint load grows, while stronger models sit at floor. Under matched checkers, model, and budget, ahead-of-time compilation significantly reduces relapse against a no-ledger verifier-retry baseline (\RestoreDiff{}, 95\% CI \RestoreDiffCI{}, $p$ \RestoreDiffP{}); adaptive ladder interventions stacked on top add no detectable gain (95\% confidence excludes gains $\geq$ \LadderExcludedGain{}). The probe predicts relapse before delivery (AUROC \AurocPrimary{}); a one-sentence tombstone note recovers about a third of the compilation effect and survives a placebo control. At \CostDeliveryFactor{} delivery overhead and \CostTotalHedged{} of API compute for every result, revocation failure becomes a measurable, predictable, and repairable property of dialogue state rather than an invisible one.

Interpreting Black-Box Large Language Models with Sentence-Level Energy Landscapes

The widespread adoption of proprietary Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed strictly through closed APIs has created a critical challenge for responsible deployment: a fundamental lack of interpretability. To address this, we propose a model-agnostic, post-hoc attribution interpreter operating at the sentence level. Our approach trains an Energy-Based Model (EBM) as a surrogate to capture the LLM's internal conceptual consistency between prompts and responses. This energy landscape guides the training of a lightweight interpreter network. Uniquely, our interpreter operates as a standalone tool; once trained, it quantifies the influence of prompt sentences on a user-specified target output without requiring further API queries to the LLM. By globally training a local interpreter across diverse inputs, our framework captures broader generation patterns and mitigates instance-specific biases. Experiments demonstrate that our EBM accurately simulates the target LLM, allowing the interpreter to effectively identify the prompt sentences most influential in generating specific target outputs.

MC-PDD: Masked Corpus-Level Pretraining Data Detection for Black-Box Large Language Models

Pretraining is fundamental to the development of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the opacity of pretraining data complicates model analysis and raises ethical, legal, and fairness concerns. Detecting whether specific datasets were used during pretraining is, therefore, critical. Existing state-of-the-art methods typically rely on access to model probability distributions, making them unsuitable for closed-source LLMs that provide only input-output interfaces. To address this limitation, we introduce Masked Corpus-level Pretraining Data Detection (MC-PDD), a novel method inspired by the masked language modeling paradigm. MC-PDD masks highly specific tokens in each text and prompts the LLM to predict the missing content. It then assesses whether the difference in prediction hit rates between a candidate corpus and a reference non-member corpus is statistically significant. Based on this comparison, MC-PDD determines whether the candidate texts were likely included in the model's pretraining data. Experimental results demonstrate clear and consistent differences in prediction hit rates between pretrained and unseen data across three datasets, for both open-source and closed-source LLMs. Despite operating under a stricter black-box setting, MC-PDD achieves performance comparable to existing detection methods. Our approach enables practical applications such as model auditing and data copyright verification using only standard API access. Upon acceptance, we will publicly release the code and datasets.