Frustratingly Simple Black-Box Adaptation of Language Models via Logit Bias

Many organizations aim to adapt language models for internal use, both to improve performance on domain-specific tasks and to address privacy concerns around sensitive data. However, such adaptation remains non-trivial: it often requires operationally challenging fine-tuning of open-source models or ad hoc prompt optimization. We study a minimal alternative based on a simple API-level control: allowing users to bias the model's logits with a user-defined vector. We develop a black-box method for learning a single context-independent logit-bias vector, added at every decoding step, without modifying model weights or requiring gradients. Starting from a KL-regularized reinforcement learning (RL) objective, we characterize when such a fixed logit-bias vector can approximate the optimal prefix-dependent correction and derive a closed-form inverse-propensity estimator from rollouts, rewards, and token probabilities. Empirically, this simple decoding-time intervention improves over base models on mathematical and reasoning benchmarks while using far fewer trainable parameters than conventional fine-tuning. Our results suggest that learned logit bias is a lightweight mechanism for adapting language models under minimal access requirements.

Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.