EviDAG: Auditable Causal DAG Authoring with Biomedical Literature

Constructing causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is a core step in biomedical causal analysis, yet it remains a largely manual process. Analysts must connect study variables to prior literature, evaluate uncertain causal claims, and preserve sufficient provenance for expert review. We present EviDAG, a browser-based system for authoring causal DAGs as auditable, evidence-linked artifacts from biomedical literature. Given free-text descriptions of study concepts, EviDAG creates a reproducible literature snapshot, uses an LLM-based reasoning module to generate structured pairwise causal judgments, links literature-supported judgments to verbatim evidence excerpts, and assembles the judgments into a constraint-checked graph. Each proposed edge includes confidence estimates, provenance, and a reviewable rationale. The interface supports study specification, progress monitoring, evidence review, graph comparison, adjustment-set computation, and export. In evaluations against both compact benchmark DAGs and reference DAGs derived from published literature, EviDAG achieves high edge recall on the literature-based cohort while retaining verifiable evidence trails absent from LLM-only baselines. EviDAG thus reduces the burden of causal DAG curation while making the resulting assumptions auditable, supporting the design, analysis, and interpretation of biomedical studies.

A Causal DAG Prior for Synthetic Time-Series Classification Datasets

A Prior-data fitted Network learns the posterior predictive induced by its training prior; bringing this paradigm to multivariate time-series classification therefore calls for a synthetic generator that produces complete labelled datasets with temporal structure. We introduce a causal prior that synthesizes each dataset from a randomly sampled DAG over typed nodes across two modalities (tabular attributes and time series), natively producing multivariate, multi-class TSC datasets with cross-modal causal structure across channels, timesteps and labels, a regime not addressed by existing synthetic priors. To validate the prior, we finetune TabPFN v2.5 with minimal adaptations and evaluate on 75 UCR/UEA datasets within TabPFN's operating regime. Finetuning on our generator significantly outperforms both the unmodified upstream model and a tabular-only ablation of the same prior (Wilcoxon signed-rank $p=3.0\times 10^{-8}$ on ROC-AUC), isolating the contribution of the cross-modal temporal structure.