SimCast-S2S: An Efficient Generative Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting via Transfer Learning from Climate Simulations

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting has substantial financial and societal impact, yet remains challenging because of weak predictive signals, high associated uncertainty, and the computational cost of operational systems, which constrains simulation fidelity. We introduce SimCast-S2S, a generative latent-diffusion framework for probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting that addresses three major bottlenecks in data-driven prediction. First, because S2S prediction requires uncertainty quantification rather than only deterministic point forecasts, SimCast-S2S is the first data-driven system that uses a diffusion-based generative pipeline for S2S prediction, enabling effective sampling from the underlying conditional distribution. Second, since generating large probabilistic ensembles is computationally costly in physical space, SimCast-S2S instead operates in a compact latent space learned by variational autoencoders, enabling efficient large-ensemble generation. Third, diffusion models typically require large training datasets; SimCast-S2S overcomes this via transfer learning with low-rank adaptation (LoRA), pretraining on large ensembles of climate simulations before fine-tuning on limited reanalysis data. On reanalysis data, SimCast-S2S outperforms deep learning baselines, including convolutional neural networks and U-Net architectures. Notably, despite using only a subset of atmospheric input variables and no post-processing, bias correction, or calibration, SimCast-S2S remains competitive with, and in many cases outperforms, state-of-the-art operational systems such as the ECMWF-S2S baseline. These results indicate that latent generative modeling combined with simulation-to-reanalysis transfer learning offers an efficient and scalable path toward data-driven probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting.

Scaling Storm-Resolving Atmospheric AI Simulation to the Entire Planet

Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost -- roughly one MWh per simulated day on exascale supercomputers -- that limits long-duration simulation. We introduce STRATA (Storm-resolving Tile-based autoRegressive Atmosphere Transformer Architecture), the first autoregressive AI emulator for global storm-resolving atmospheric dynamics. STRATA is trained on the highest-resolution atmospheric dataset yet used for global AI emulation: 17 days of SCREAM physics-model output at 4.9-km resolution (~25 million grid cells) sampled every 10 minutes. Our central premise is that on 10-minute timescales atmospheric dynamics are predominantly local, so training on small spatial tiles trades scarce global temporal samples for abundant local spatial samples and enables global rollout via overlapping-tile blending. STRATA combines 3D patch embedding and local 3D neighborhood attention, a novel Stereographic Rotary Position Embedding (StereoRoPE) for grid-invariant encoding, and a pixel-space de-aliasing decoder that suppresses patch-scale rollout artifacts. An iso-FLOP scaling study reveals that km-scale emulation requires ~10x more FLOPs per grid point than coarse-resolution AI weather models, consistent with the higher information density of convective-scale dynamics. Trained on only 17 days of data, STRATA produces stable 24-hour global rollouts with realistic km-scale dynamics across diverse regimes, though large-scale biases develop with lead time. It achieves 48 simulation days per megawatt-hour -- about 50 times better energy efficiency than the SCREAM physics model -- and 741 simulated days per wall-clock day at 512 H100 GPUs. Code and dataset are publicly available.

U-Net-Accelerated Quality-Diversity Optimization for Climate-Adaptive Urban Layouts

Optimizing urban layouts for climate adaptation requires balancing building density with cold-air ventilation. Because physics-based climate simulations are computationally expensive, planners typically evaluate fewer than ten manual designs. \gls{qd} algorithms offer a way to systematically illuminate the design space, but they require surrogate models to be practical. In this paper, we replace a slow, regulatory physics simulator with a spatial deep-learning surrogate (U-Net) inside an offline MAP-Elites loop. We systematically compare this spatial approach with a traditional \gls{gp} surrogate across different training-data strategies (quasi-random Sobol sampling vs.\ active \gls{qd} bootstrapping). Our results reveal that scalar \gls{gp} surrogates fail catastrophically when trained on random samples, requiring expensive, actively generated \gls{qd} archives to generalize. In contrast, the spatial inductive bias of the U-Net allows it to learn the underlying physics mapping robustly ($R^2 = 0.996$), completely independent of the training data source. This allows offline \gls{qd} optimization to achieve highly accurate fitness rankings ($ρ= 0.994$) using only a one-time batch of random training samples. The resulting pipeline, deployed in the open-source OpenSKIZZE tool, generates thousands of diverse, climate-evaluated building layouts in under ten minutes.