Accurate cloud resource forecasting is essential for proactive resource provisioning, maintaining Quality of Service (QoS), and reducing operational costs in dynamic cloud environments. The existing forecasting approaches predominantly estimate future CPU workload directly from historical resource traces, which often overlook the relationship between customer service demand and subsequent resource consumption. This study proposes a two-stage integrated forecasting model that explicitly models this dependency by first forecasting customer service requests, expressed as Transactions Per Second (TPS), and subsequently estimating future CPU workload from the TPS forecast. Both the forecasting component and resource prediction component employed the XGBoost model within a cascaded learning architecture, complemented by adaptive online retraining using an expanding-window strategy to address concept drift in continuously evolving cloud workloads. The proposed work was evaluated using real-world traces collected from a private cloud environment comprising ten applications. Experimental results demonstrate robust forecasting performance by achieving Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) below $7\%$ for most applications, with the best-performing application achieving an MAE of $0.7372$, RMSE of $1.1866$, SMAPE of $3.57\%$, and an R2 of $0.9185$. Horizon-wise drift analysis confirmed stable recursive forecasting behavior with controlled error accumulation across a 60-step prediction horizon. Compared with the conventional direct CPU forecasting method, the proposed two-stage integrated model gives improved forecasting robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretability, making it well-suited for proactive resource management and intelligent auto-scaling in cloud computing environments.
Yutong Zhao, Noga H. Rotman, Gianni Antichi +1cs.NI cs.DC cs.LG
AI training workloads are growing rapidly, making their time, energy, and infrastructure costs increasingly important. In shared cloud clusters, training and fine-tuning jobs compete with co-running workloads for network resources, while network mechanisms and ML training choices are typically optimized separately: networking controls how bytes move, whereas ML systems control when and how much communication occurs. We argue that this separation leaves end-to-end performance on the table. We present ML-for-ML, a cross-layer perspective in which network-side and ML-side knobs are selected jointly under a shared time-to-target-loss objective. Our preliminary prototype shows that by co-optimizing the ML and network parameters, we reach the target loss up to 42% faster.
In cloud computing, the public cloud service providers (CSPs) can provide cloud storage as the primary service while providing additional machine learning (ML)-based services by using the clients' data in storage. This business model extends the border of cloud computing services and brings in new business growth possibilities. Although it is promising, the model also brings in security concerns since the public commercial cloud cannot be fully trusted. For example, the public commercial clouds may sell clients' sensitive data to the government or other companies. To address the security concerns, an immediate solution is to require clients to encrypt their datasets before outsourcing to the cloud. However, if a database is formally encrypted, then the database contains only pseudorandom numbers, making it impossible to enable ML over it. In this project, we propose MLQENABLER (ML Queries Enabler) scheme to enable secure ML queries over encrypted database in cloud storage. MLQENABLER employs an index-aid approach to achieve security and ML capability simultaneously. Our initial experiments show that MLQENABLER achieves an acceptable security level while incurring only a slight ML performance degradation.
Jack Bell, Giacomo Carfi, Gerlando Gramaglia +3cs.AI
Cloud virtual machines are often overprovisioned, creating avoidable cost and operational inefficiency. We present CLOUDADV, an interactive engineer-facing advisory system for cloud instance sizing under workload drift. The system combines zero-shot time-series forecasting with bounded recommendation generation across day-, week-, and month-scale planning horizons. For each query, CLOUDADV constructs a structured decision context from historical utilization, forecast summaries, current VM metadata, candidate instance options, pricing, and explicit sizing heuristics. A higher-capacity LLM is used offline to generate reference recommendations, while a smaller production model is evaluated on the same prompts to assess deployment-time alignment under latency and cost constraints. Evaluation prioritizes downstream recommendation quality using simulated Azure cost savings and ex-post exceedance, with rolling-origin forecast accuracy reported as a secondary diagnostic against classical and supervised baselines. In a case study of seven production VMs, the reference recommendations reduce simulated monthly cost from about \$1,503 to \$708, yielding \$795/month in savings (52.9%) under conservative heuristic constraints, while the highest observed exceedance rate among downgraded cases is 1.5%. Although Chronos-2 does not minimize every forecasting metric, it often induces recommendation patterns similar to those of a supervised per-VM baseline. These results suggest that zero-shot foundation models can support decision-aligned provisioning in non-stationary cloud environments while reducing the operational burden of repeated per-tenant retraining, revalidation, and redeployment.
Predicting temporal Quality of Service (QoS) data is critical for optimizing network services and rationalizing resource allocation in cloud computing and service-oriented systems. Existing mainstream methods have achieved promising predictive performance. However, their purely data-driven manner limits their ability to capture non-stationary temporal patterns, thereby leading to accuracy degradation when temporal QoS data exhibits fluctuations. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel Extended Kalman Filter-Enhanced Latent Feature Analysis (EKL) model to perform efficient and accurate temporal QoS prediction from the perspective of bidirectional model-data-driven learning. Its main idea is three-fold: a) designing a model-driven feature producer to obtain the temporal latent features to capture the intricate temporal pattern following the principle of an Extended Kalman Filter; b) building a data-driven feature producer based on the alternating least squares algorithm to identify time-invariant latent features describing intrinsic user-service characteristics; c) exploiting a density-oriented parallel strategy that achieves workload balancing by sorting users in accordance with their service invocation density, which effectively elevates computational efficiency. In addition, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis to formally prove the convergence of the proposed EKL. Experimental evaluations conducted on real-world temporal QoS datasets reveal that our proposed EKL surpasses existing state-of-the-art models with respect to both computational efficiency and prediction accuracy for missing temporal QoS data.
Managing cloud infrastructure efficiently, especially in environments of large cloud providers or hyperscalers, requires optimizing the use of physical resources to minimize costs and maximize performance. Selecting the right virtual machine (VM) sizes is crucial to achieving cost efficiency in these dynamic environments. However, traditional VM allocation and scheduling approaches often fail to account for the fluctuating and unpredictable nature of VM utilization, leading to inefficiencies such as over- or under-provisioning of resources. High-quality interval prediction helps accurately capture uncertainty in cloud resource demand and supports cloud operators in efficient instance provisioning. As an effective and reliable framework for constructing prediction intervals (PIs), conformal prediction (CP) is used for mid- and long-term forecasting tasks in cloud computing environments. This study proposes a new data-driven PI construction approach using bootstrapping conformal prediction for modern, dynamic, data-driven Right-sizing Recommendations (RSR) to enhance provisioning for diverse application workloads on hyperscalers. By learning workload utilization patterns, identifying correlations across multiple time series, and predicting medium- to long-term utilization trends, this research seeks to improve the efficiency of cloud and data center operations through an AI/ML-based provisioning pipeline. Our study demonstrates that AI-driven models, powered by machine learning regression techniques and evaluated using backtesting, achieve promising forecasting results for cloud resource utilization. Additionally, we rank the selected models to identify top-performing approaches for long-life VM candidates. The proposed framework enhances right-sizing recommendations and supports more cost-effective resource allocation in dynamic cloud environments.
Driven by conservative over-provisioning to guarantee service reliability, resource utilization in cloud data centers remains at low levels. To mitigate this, the forecast-then-optimize paradigm has emerged to optimize consolidation by anticipating future demands. While emerging time series foundation models promise to enhance this paradigm through zero-shot generalization, existing benchmarks focus solely on prediction error metrics. The actual decision utility of these advanced models remains unverified, rendering their practical value for downstream tasks uncertain. To bridge this gap, we propose CloudCons, a comprehensive end-to-end benchmark designed to evaluate forecasting models within the specific context of cloud resource consolidation. We build high-quality datasets that cover diverse workloads from Huawei Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Google Borg, capturing distinct service characteristics ranging from synchronized diurnal rhythms to stochastic, pulse-like bursts and high-frequency noise. We conduct an extensive evaluation of statistical, deep learning, and foundation models. Our experiments reveal a pivotal finding: while foundation models demonstrate superior zero-shot forecasting accuracy, this advantage does not inherently translate into better decision utility. Of practical significance, we systematically analyze how the selection of predictive quantiles acts as a critical lever. We provide actionable guidelines for calibrating these selections to balance the trade-off between resource efficiency and service reliability, offering vital insights for real-world deployment decisions.