Sebastian Buschjäger, Nuwan Gunasekara, Heitor Murilo Gomescs.LG cs.AI cs.PF
Stream learning is commonly evaluated through predictive performance and adaptation to concept drift. However, sustained operation of a stream learner also requires predictable and bounded resource usage even on long streams. This requirement becomes even more critical when learning moves from servers to near-sensor embedded systems where memory and processing are scarce resources. In state-of-the-art stream learning, however, we perceive a strong focus on concept drift adaptation, whereas resource usage is often an evaluation byproduct. To close this gap, we benchmark seven representative stream classifiers on 13 real and synthetic streams under model-size budgets from 128\,KiB to approximately 8\,MiB. Our benchmark comprises a total of 6,463 experiments. We measure failure-aware accuracy, peak model size, time to budget exhaustion, and prediction-plus-update latency. The results reveal two distinct resource failure modes. Adaptive ensembles can exceed small budgets almost immediately because of their initial footprint, even when their size remains stable thereafter. Incremental trees can fit initially but grow throughout a long stream, with HoeffdingTrees (HT) and Extremely Fast Decision Trees (EFDT) increasing by median factors of 7.37 and 5.87. Explicitly compact methods remain the only viable option under the smallest budgets, but are usually overtaken as larger budgets make adaptive ensembles competitive. Hence, many state-of-the-art methods are only partially applicable in embedded systems or for long-running systems. We therefore call on the stream-learning community to make bounded resource usage a first-class design objective alongside drift adaptation, and propose concrete steps toward this goal, including an API through which stream learners can explicitly expose and respect resource budgets.
Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments where concept drift causes the underlying process distribution to shift over time. While recent work has moved toward online continual learning, existing methods train compact, task-specific networks entirely from scratch, leaving a persistent cold-start problem. Foundation Models (FMs) offer a compelling solution to this problem, but their continual fine-tuning in the process mining domain remains unexplored. We propose COMPASS (Continual Online foundation Model-based PPM with Adaptive SubSpaces), the first framework for online continual fine-tuning of FMs for PPM. COMPASS adapts loss-plateau drift detection to autonomously identify task boundaries in event streams and maintains a unified knowledge subspace including both pre-trained and task-specific directions. We evaluate our approach on nine event streams covering synthetic and real-world concept drift scenarios, across task-free and task-aware settings with multiple backbones and with consistent hyperparameter tuning across all methods. Our approach outperforms three SOTA non-FM competitors and two update strategy baselines, with particularly strong gains on streams exhibiting recurrent drift and complex, long-running cases, while incurring acceptable computational overhead compared to the non-FM competitors.
Electric vehicle (EV) charging loads exhibit strong behavioral heterogeneity and temporal variability, posing significant challenges for online probabilistic forecasting under evolving operating conditions. In particular, persistent charging patterns may differ substantially across stations, while recent behavioral changes can continuously alter the underlying load distributions. This paper proposes a behavior-guided online probabilistic forecasting framework that explicitly characterizes persistent station-specific patterns and recent behavioral changes. A dual-timescale behavior representation is constructed to distinguish long-term charging characteristics from recent behavioral states and quantify their deviations. These behavioral changes are further semantically encoded to guide drift-aware forecasting adaptation, while a delayed-feedback mechanism ensures temporally consistent online updates when observations become available across different forecasting horizons. Experiments on ten heterogeneous real-world charging stations demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms conventional forecasting models and concept-drift-aware online baselines in forecasting accuracy and probabilistic reliability. For 1-h-ahead forecasting, the proposed method reduces MSE and Pinball loss by 15.3\% and 17.8\%, respectively, over the corresponding best baselines. For 4-h-ahead forecasting, the improvements further reach 16.8\% and 22.6\%, respectively, demonstrating consistent performance gains under evolving charging behaviors and extended forecasting horizons.
Learning systems deployed over long periods must adapt not only to statistical changes in incoming data, but also to revisions of the definitions that generate their prediction targets. Conventional concept-drift methods typically infer such changes from observations or prediction errors, even when the underlying policy, rule, or query has been explicitly modified. This paper studies rule-induced concept shift, where the target-defining concept is revised directly, causing previously stored instances to acquire different semantic labels without requiring any change in their observed data. We introduce a provenance-guided incremental learning framework that compiles consecutive concept definitions into a structured rule delta, traces the changed components through historical provenance, certifies records whose previous labels remain valid, and restricts reevaluation to a localized candidate region. Executable revisions are relabeled automatically, ambiguous cases are handled through selective supervision, and the resulting changes are used for incremental predictor repair. A versioned concept memory further supports recurring definitions. We also introduce RuleShift-Bench, spanning financial, demographic, cybersecurity, and graph-structured data with threshold, predicate, logical, relational, recurring, and mixed concept revisions. Across the benchmark, provenance-guided repair attains 92.3% accuracy and 90.2% Macro-F1 while reprocessing 14.7% of the historical collection and retaining 94.6% of affected records. Its average update latency is 179s compared with 993s for complete relabeling and retraining. The results demonstrate that an explicit concept revision can be exploited as a data-maintenance signal, allowing learning systems to update the supervision and predictive state that depend on the change while preserving knowledge that remains valid.
Temporal Domain Generalization (TDG) aims to learn from historical domains and generalize to unseen future distributions under concept drift. Nevertheless, prevailing TDG methods struggle with complex real-world streaming scenarios involving both multi-scale drift patterns (e.g., long-term periodicity intertwined with short-term incremental changes) and local uncertainties, especially in continuous settings where observations arrive irregularly. To address this limitation, we propose FreKoo++, a novel continuous spectral-dynamical framework that pioneers the unification of continuous Koopman modal dynamics with adaptive spectral disentanglement. Specifically, FreKoo++ maps source-domain parameters into a compact latent space, modeling their evolution as a superposition of learnable continuous modes where complex eigenvalues jointly encode oscillatory frequency and temporal growth or decay. This formulation naturally accommodates irregular timestamps and supports arbitrary horizon extrapolation without rigid discrete stepping. Furthermore, we propose a new adaptive soft spectral weighting mechanism backed by stability and spectral regularization, which automatically isolates persistent dominant dynamics from transient noise without relying on manual frequency thresholds. We derive modal approximation and generalization bounds that characterize how amplitude and eigenvalue estimation errors propagate with the prediction horizon. Extensive experiments on both discrete and continuous TDG benchmarks demonstrate that FreKoo++ achieves state-of-the-art performance under complex multi-scale drifts and irregular sampling.
Aurélien Renault, Alexis Bondu, Antoine Cornuéjols +1cs.LG
Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) requires making accurate decisions as early as possible in inherently online and evolving environments. Yet, most existing methods assume stationarity and rely on separable designs, where classification and triggering are optimized independently, an assumption that fundamentally limits their adaptability under drift. In this work, we challenge this paradigm and study ECTS under non-stationary conditions. We provide the first systematic comparison between separable and end-to-end approaches across controlled drifting scenarios. Building on Reinforcement Learning, we introduce DQeND, a unified architecture that jointly learns representation, classification, and triggering decisions, while remaining directly comparable to state-of-the-art separable baselines. Across a wide range of drifts, DQeND demonstrates strong robustness across various non-stationary scenarios, consistently outperforming separable baselines. An ablation study further highlights that jointly updating representation and decision modules is critical to these gains. Overall, our results indicate that end-to-end learning can offer improved adaptation capabilities for ECTS in dynamic environments, and motivate further investigation of alternatives to separable designs.
Streaming systems that maintain a pool of expert models must repeatedly decide whether to reuse an existing expert for arriving data, spawn a new one, or defer. We present a decision layer that makes all three outcomes statistically meaningful. Reuse and spawn are posed as one-sided sequential hypotheses on a conditional (mechanism-level) discrepancy, separated by an indifference zone; defer is exactly the state in which neither betting e-process has accumulated sufficient evidence. We prove finite-time anytime validity for the observable surrogate discrepancy of a predictable discriminator sequence, and an unconditional one-sided transfer to the population quantity in which each side's slack is the excess risk of a single discriminator; an empirically observed downward-bias regularity makes the spawn side exactly conservative. Recency without sacrificing the guarantee is obtained by a restarted e-detector: a bank of unwindowed betting supermartingales at geometrically spaced restart times (O(log t) memory), with the error budget spent over restart instances, which preserves lifetime anytime validity; spending over expert-creation order likewise controls multiplicity for unboundedly many experts. On synthetic multi-concept streams, Electricity, Covertype, and the recurrence-heavy INSECTS benchmark, the instance-accounted restarted bank achieves zero false spawns and zero false reuses after switches and matches or exceeds the retired windowed heuristic (INSECTS-reoccurring accuracy 0.675), making the deployed algorithm and the guaranteed algorithm one and the same.
Streaming systems that maintain a pool of expert models must repeatedly decide whether to reuse an existing expert for arriving data, spawn a new one, or defer. We present a decision layer that makes all three outcomes statistically meaningful. Reuse and spawn are posed as one-sided sequential hypotheses on a conditional (mechanism-level) discrepancy, separated by an indifference zone; defer is exactly the state in which neither betting e-process has accumulated sufficient evidence. We prove finite-time anytime validity for the observable surrogate discrepancy of a predictable discriminator sequence, and an unconditional one-sided transfer to the population quantity in which each side's slack is the excess risk of a single discriminator; an empirically observed downward-bias regularity makes the spawn side exactly conservative. Recency without sacrificing the guarantee is obtained by a restarted e-detector: a bank of unwindowed betting supermartingales at geometrically spaced restart times (O(log t) memory), with the error budget spent over restart instances, which preserves lifetime anytime validity; spending over expert-creation order likewise controls multiplicity for unboundedly many experts. On synthetic multi-concept streams, Electricity, Covertype, and the recurrence-heavy INSECTS benchmark, the instance-accounted restarted bank achieves zero false spawns and zero false reuses after switches and matches or exceeds the retired windowed heuristic (INSECTS-reoccurring accuracy 0.675), making the deployed algorithm and the guaranteed algorithm one and the same.
Production machine learning systems degrade under concept drift, yet practitioners have little principled guidance on when to retrain. Retraining is costly, retraining budgets are finite, and a retrained model does not take effect instantly: training and deployment latency leave a stale model serving predictions while the data continues to move. We present a controlled empirical study of three practical model-refresh policies (periodic retraining, error-threshold triggering, and statistical drift-triggered retraining with ADWIN) against a no-retrain baseline, evaluated under a unified system model that makes retraining budgets and training-plus-deployment latency explicit. Across 3,933 experiment runs spanning three drift regimes, three budget levels, up to five latency levels, three datasets, and two learning modes, we find that the single most consequential design decision is not the retraining policy but whether the deployed model learns incrementally. With per-sample incremental updates, and for the linear online learner with immediate labels studied here, no policy differs from the no-retrain baseline by a practically significant margin in any of 54 paired comparisons, even at extreme latency. Without incremental updates, policy choice separates outcomes by 15-55 percentage points of post-drift accuracy, and simple periodic retraining significantly outperforms both reactive policies under abrupt and gradual drift, while reactive policies retain an advantage only under recurring drift. We document systematic failure modes of reactive policies and a latency-budget queueing interaction that silently halves effective retraining budgets, and release the full simulator, dataset pipelines, and per-run artifacts for reproducibility.
Daniel Nowak Assis, Jean Paul Barddal, Fabrício Enembreckcs.LG cs.AI
Ensembles of decision trees are well-established methods for data stream classification. In ensemble learning, Hoeffding Trees are widely adopted as base learners, performing periodic split attempts according to the Hoeffding bound. Recent studies, however, indicate that this standard splitting mechanism lacks adaptability, while adaptive trees that trigger splits in response to performance degradation have achieved superior results. In this paper, we identify limitations in the use of adaptive-splitting decision trees as ensemble base learners, showing that change detectors often fail to promote sufficient diversity within ensembles. To address this issue, we propose two novel decision tree models, termed Hoeffding Adaptive Splitting Trees. These models combine the periodic splitting strategy of Hoeffding Trees, which fosters ensemble diversity, with adaptive splitting mechanisms that employ change detection algorithms to identify performance decay and determine split points. Experimental results demonstrate that Hoeffding Adaptive Splitting Trees enhance ensemble performance and achieve state-of-the-art results across a comprehensive evaluation, including benchmark comparisons, computational cost analysis, and concept drift adaptation.
Identification of IoT device types from passive traffic is increasingly used for security management in enterprise and ISP networks. However, the performance of machine learning-based classifiers gradually degrades under concept drift as device behavior evolves. Therefore, maintaining classification performance requires periodic retraining with newly labeled deployment traffic. The operational challenge is determining how much and which deployment traffic instances to label for maintaining classification performance. We show that these two decisions should be treated separately. While retraining solely on instances selected by a drift detector is prone to systematically overlooking parts of the emerging behavioral space, uniformly sampled deployment traffic captures more representative behavioral changes. Instead, drift detection is more effective at determining the amount of deployment traffic that should be labeled. We make three contributions. (1) We conduct a two-year longitudinal study of IoT traffic and characterize how behavioral evolution manifests across device classes and how retraining with newly labeled traffic restores classification performance. (2) We develop a conformity-based drift detector that captures class-conditional behavioral models directly from raw traffic features and provides feature-level explanations of behavioral evolution. (3) We demonstrate that adjusting the traffic labeling rate according to the observed behavioral evolution, combined with uniform traffic sampling, maintains classifier performance more effectively than detector-guided sample selection and is beneficial to managing the traffic labeling effort. We further show that this strategy performs comparably to confidence-guided adaptation while providing feature-level explanations. Our evaluation uses 3.8 million IPFIX flow records collected from 21 IoT types over more than 2 years.
Christofer Washington Berruz Chungata, Martin Jurecek, Katerina Potika +2cs.LG cs.AI cs.CR
Concept drift refers to changes over time in the statistical properties of data, as compared to the data that was used to train a learning model. Machine learning models for malware detection or classification are particularly susceptible to performance degradation caused by concept drift, as attackers constantly modify existing malware. In this chapter, we analyze two machine learning-based approaches to automated concept drift detection-a novel approach based on One-Class Support Vector Machines (OCSVM) and a previously-studied technique based on Minibatch K-Means (MK-Means). For comparison we also consider Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), a statistical technique for detecting changes in multidimensional data. We conduct an extensive series of experiments comparing the effectiveness of four learning models, namely, Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting. For each of these models, we consider three distinct scenarios: A static scenario where no model retraining occurs, a periodic scenario where models are constantly retrained irrespective of concept drift, and a drift-aware scenario where models are only retrained when concept drift is detected. Under the drift-aware scenario, we analyze the tradeoff between accuracy and training efficiency using Pareto Front analysis. We find that all three concept drift detection techniques achieve classification accuracy comparable to periodic retraining, while offering substantially greater efficiency in terms of the number of models that must be retrained. In addition, drift-aware retraining based on our OCSVM technique generally outperforms the MK-Means and MMD approaches. Overall, these results provide strong evidence that we can accurately detect concept drift in malware classification models.
Cardiovascular AI models can classify clean elec- trocardiogram (ECG) signals, but real wearable signals change because of motion, breathing, posture, sensor contact, and true clinical deterioration. This paper asks when a model should keep its prediction, change it, or flag uncertainty. We propose a physiologic stability framework, called PECS, that compares changes inside the model with measurable changes in the signal. ECG is treated as the main cardiac signal, photoplethysmography (PPG) adds pulse and vascular information, and respiration is used only when ECG and PPG disagree. We test the framework on PTB-XL at pilot and full scales and on synchronized BIDMC and MIMIC waveform cohorts. The PTB-XL pilot and full- scale analyses selected different domain pairs, and the strongest cross-modal pair also changed across BIDMC and MIMIC, showing that adding every available signal is not always the best choice. PECS outperformed the evaluated drift-detection baseline implementations, reaching drift classification accuracy (DCA) of 0.8786 on expanded BIDMC and 0.9560 on MIMIC. The MIMIC results also showed that respiration can help during disagreement cases, but it should be used selectively rather than as an automatic override. Overall, the results support PECS as a candidate monitoring framework for wearable cardiovascular AI while highlighting the need for scale-aware domain selection and interpretable trust routing
This paper addresses the limitations of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) with respect to insufficient evaluation. They are illustrated through the DetoxAI image recognition system for bias detection and concept unlearning. Then, an example of a human-grounded evaluation of methods for explaining image classification is presented. The paper further explores methods for adapting explanations to evolving data streams with concept drift. Experiences with adapting counterfactuals for this problem are discussed. Finally it is related to the challenges of tracking the co-evolution of data, models, and explanations.\footnote{This paper has been accepted for a publication in J.Nalepa (ed) Explainable AI in Space. Proceedings of EASi 2026 Workshop at IJCAI-ECAI 2026 Bremen, Springer CCIS vol 3107 (2016).}
Tabular model performance degrades when feature distributions change over time or the relationship between features and outcome variables change over time, known as data drift and concept drift, respectively. These issues are challenging to mitigate in real time because labeled data may not be immediately available, or re-training a model could be impractical. While tools exist to reduce drift, they are typically bespoke to neural network architectures and adapt how models are trained. In this paper, we offer an alternative post-hoc method to reduce concept drift, which is applicable to a variety of models, from trees to neural networks to tabular foundation models. This new tool is especially useful when constraints, such as high model accuracy, bounded inference time, or model size requires users to choose between different models for their specific use-cases. Our algorithm fits the base model separately on each labeled training period, measures how its parameters evolve against a single anchor model pooled over all of those periods, compresses those changes with a low-rank factorization, and extrapolates each latent factor forward with a damped, regularized forecast. On the 18-dataset Drift-Resilient TabPFN benchmark, evaluated under that benchmark's own protocol and metric, the extrapolation improves every base family it is applied to, and achieves performance competitive with the state-of-the-art Drift-Resilient TabPFN with seconds of training. In contrast, Drift-Resilient TabPFN requires pre-training on millions of synthetic datasets over approximately 1,300 GPU-hours, and is orders of magnitude slower in inference (depending on the model). In the discussion, we explore the promise and challenges of extending this tool to other modalities.
Digital Twins rely on surrogate models to mirror physical systems in real time, yet these models can degrade as operating conditions evolve, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Maintaining surrogate fidelity under drift, particularly when models must also capture aleatoric uncertainty, remains an open challenge. Existing adaptive frameworks lack principled mechanisms for detecting when updates are needed, for efficiently adapting models from limited streaming data, and for certifying that updates genuinely improve predictive performance. Here we present an adaptive Digital Twin framework that integrates a Fisher score--based multivariate drift detector, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient continual learning, and a Mann--Whitney $U$ test for online statistical validation. The framework monitors surrogate-model confidence via Fisher score vectors, triggers targeted fine-tuning of fewer than 1% of model parameters upon drift detection, and statistically certifies predictive improvement before deploying the updated surrogate. Applied to a stochastic linear system and a directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process as case studies, the framework successfully detects distributional shifts with short delays and restores both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification under abrupt and incremental drift. These results establish a statistically rigorous and computationally tractable pathway for sustaining the trustworthiness of neural-network--based Digital Twins throughout their operational life cycle.
Drift detectors that work tend not to explain themselves, and drift detectors that explain themselves tend to fail in high dimension. We close that gap for Gaussian mixture models (GMMs): each fitted component is a named "regime," and the fraction of a stream window matching no regime -- its unexplained mass -- is a drift signal that is simultaneously its own explanation. We identify why this statistic collapses in high dimension and repair it. Under a correct component a normal point in d dimensions lies about sqrt(d) sigma from the mean, so once d exceeds 9 essentially every point exceeds a fixed 3-sigma radius: window-level ROC-AUC is exactly 0.50 on Satellite (d=36) and Optdigits (d=64). Calibrating the radius to sqrt(chi-squared_d(0.99)) removes the collapse -- AUC 1.00 and 0.89 -- while leaving low dimensions unchanged. Across seven public benchmarks, five seeds, and eight model-free detectors spanning the kernel, classifier, projection, density-difference, transport, likelihood and partition families, the repaired statistic is best or tied-best on five of seven datasets at 10% window contamination (its two losses are Pendigits, where the whole field beats it, and Optdigits), and as contamination becomes sparse the sample-level detectors fade toward chance while it degrades most gracefully: at 2% its mean AUC across the benchmarks is 0.86 against at most 0.73 for any model-free detector (1.00 vs. MMD's 0.72 on KDD-http) -- while alone among them reporting which regime the data left and how far outside it the window lies. We delimit its scope honestly: unexplained mass detects and explains novel-regime drift but is blind by construction to in-support re-weighting of known regimes, where distribution-level tests are required and explain nothing; and the underlying density model's EVT-calibrated false-alarm rates degrade above d of about 36. All code and experiments are released.
Matthias Weiß, Athreya Hosahalli Prakash, Maurice Artelt +3cs.LG cs.AI
Connected vehicles are autonomous cyber-physical systems whose behavior must be continuously monitored during operation to detect deviations from normal operation before they propagate into failures. Such evaluation is challenging because the systems themselves evolve: over-the-air updates, configuration changes, and shifting workloads alter the definition of normal behavior, causing static diagnostic methods to degrade silently over time. Existing approaches typically address either automated model adaptation or operator integration in isolation, rather than as a single coordinated supervisory loop. This paper presents an online anomaly detection framework for autonomous CPS that integrates three coordinated mechanisms. A factorized deep Q-network with self-attention selects the most suitable detector from a candidate pool for each monitored service, exploiting inter-service dependencies in the microservice topology. An ensemble of three statistical drift detectors monitors the input distribution and raises an alarm only when all three concur, prioritizing precision over recall. A human-in-the-loop retraining mechanism, built around a pending transition buffer and a 60/40 prioritized replay strategy, allows the operator to incorporate expert knowledge while preserving the system's learned response to prior data distributions. The framework is evaluated on a connected-vehicle testbed running an automated valet parking application across seven backend microservices. The attention-augmented agent achieves an F1 score of 0.69, compared to at most 0.11 for any single detector applied uniformly. Following a real software update that induces measurable concept drift, F1 drops to 0.52; after operator-triggered retraining, performance recovers to 0.65 on the new distribution while remaining at 0.69 on the prior one, demonstrating sustained adaptation without catastrophic forgetting.
Héctor Laria, Yiping Han, Julian D. Santamaria +4cs.CV
Adapting pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, whether to learn new visual concepts or erase unwanted ones, is routinely evaluated on its intended effects alone. We argue this framing is incomplete. Through sparse autoencoder analysis and zero-shot classification, we demonstrate that adaptation systematically damages semantically unrelated concepts in ways that aggregate metrics structurally cannot surface: when damage is severe enough for FID and KID to respond, the model is already nearly unusable; when the model remains functional, FID and KID stay flat while specific classes silently suffer worst-case zero-shot accuracy drops of up to 18.9 points and concept-level distributions shift dramatically. This pattern appears at both ends of the adaptation spectrum (concept customization and concept unlearning), suggesting it is a systematic consequence of weight-level modification rather than an artifact of any particular method. To surface this hidden drift before deployment, we introduce DriftScope, a prompt-level diagnostic tool that takes any two model checkpoints and returns a ranked list of tokens whose visual concepts have shifted most between them. DriftScope optimizes a soft prompt to attribute drift at the token level without requiring access to real data or model internals. The result is an interpretable, concept-level audit that aggregate evaluation cannot provide.
Yousuf Moiz Ali, Jaroslaw E. Prilepsky, João Pedro +4cs.LG eess.SP
We propose a hybrid active-online learning framework for label-efficient concept drift adaptation in optical network failure detection. Using margin-based selective labeling, our method achieves nearceiling accuracy and AUC scores while querying only 3.4% of streaming samples, with negligible latency overhead compared to static inference.
Online learning is crucial for handling complex data streams in big data applications. Recent research has begun to focus on dynamic scenarios, i.e., non-stationary environments. However, a crucial yet often overlooked aspect is label latency, where new data may not receive labels in time due to the slow and expensive labeling process, thus hindering rapid adaptation to dynamic environments. To resolve this impasse, we propose Dual-Track Geometry Online Learning (DT-GOL), a novel framework that shifts from temporal compensation to spatial reasoning to bridge the supervised latency gap. By modeling the delay challenge as a semi-supervised task, we leverage real-time topological evolution of features as a reliable geometric surrogate for unobservable conceptual changes to achieve proactive supervised adaptation within the delay window. Unlike rigid self-training, we introduce a dynamic evidence calibration mechanism that distills geometric information into soft labels that perceive uncertainty, effectively mitigating the confirmation bias inherent in hard pseudo-labels. Furthermore, to resolve the stability-plasticity dilemma, we design a decoupled dual-track architecture in which a master learner serves as a stable anchor, updated strictly from delayed ground truth, while a transient branch leverages soft geometric knowledge for low-risk forward adaptation. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DT-GOL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods, especially in scenarios with concept drift.
Machine learning systems deployed in dynamic environments frequently operate under nonstationary data distributions, where controlled distribution shift can progressively degrade predictive performance. However, many widely used tabular benchmark datasets lack explicit temporal structure, limiting reproducible evaluation of drift adaptation methods. This work proposes a cluster-induced distribution shift simulation framework that transforms static tabular datasets into controlled evolving data streams through structured perturbations across featurespace partitions. Using this framework, six adaptation strategies are systematically evaluated: static learning, sliding-window retraining, global ADWIN retraining, cluster-local ADWIN retraining, random subspace drift detection, and feature-partitioned drift detection. Experiments are conducted on five benchmark datasets covering both classification and regression tasks using diverse predictive model families, including linear models, k-Nearest Neighbours, tree ensembles, boosting methods, and adaptive online learners.
Machine learning algorithms deployed for evolving streaming environments must handle the non-stationary data distributions, commonly referred to as concept drift. The presence of concept drift poses a major challenge for many real-world applications because it can severely degrade their predictive performance, hindering their ability to support robust decision-making. Consequently, the timely and efficient detection of drift events is critical for sustaining high accuracy over time. This study examines theoretically the concept drift characteristics and numerous drift detection algorithms across several categories. Furthermore, we evaluate their performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets exhibiting diverse streaming scenarios and drift characteristics, such as abrupt and gradual changes. This study aims to enhance understanding of the complex notion of concept drift characteristics and behavior of drift detectors, along with their applicability to diverse contexts.
Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution. We study online distributional prediction under drift and adversarial corruption. Our approach represents each candidate law through a latent cluster geometry: a variable-size configuration of centers that organizes probability mass and induces a predictive distribution. A Gibbs quasi-posterior over these configurations yields an online predictor by posterior averaging, and the resulting variable-dimensional posterior can be sampled with reversible-jump MCMC. The method therefore avoids specifying a parametric streaming law while retaining a structured latent space for uncertainty, regularization, and comparison. We evaluate performance by cumulative Wasserstein-1 regret against the time-varying true law. The analysis separates two effects: corruption perturbs the loss-based posterior update, whereas drift makes long-horizon posterior memory stale. We address the latter with a restarted variant that temporally localizes the same quasi-Bayesian update. The resulting high-probability bounds decompose into a PAC-Bayesian complexity term, a corruption-sensitive posterior perturbation term, and a dynamic optimal-transport term driven by \(A_T^{\mathrm{OT}}=\sum_{t=2}^T W_2^2(p_{t-1}^*,p_t^*)\). Under bounded support, stable latent geometry, predictive-map regularity, oracle realizability, localized restart windows, sublinear transport action, and sublinear corruption budget, the restarted predictor achieves sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret. These guarantees require no parametric model for the stream, drift mechanism, or corruption process.
Data acquisition is a major bottleneck for learning in real-time streams: analysts must decide on the fly which labels to purchase while respecting a rolling budget. However, existing online active learning rarely unifies pricing, information gain, and rolling budget constraints under concept drift. We introduce QueryMarket, a market-inspired framework that queries each incoming data point based on its estimated utility to the model and its price. Within this framework, we propose OVBAL (online variance-based active learning), which integrates data pricing with information-driven selection by estimating each sample's marginal utility via a D-optimality criterion with exponential forgetting and executing cost-aware purchases under rolling budget constraints. OVBAL yields a simple, fully online decision rule that adapts to nonstationary streams and heterogeneous label costs. Experiments on synthetic data and a real-world solar power generation forecasting task show that OVBAL is particularly effective under seller-centric pricing and yields a more favorable long-run error-cost trade-off in the real-world task under both pricing schemes.
Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Bruno Casal Laraña, Nádia Soares +1cs.LG
When working with real-world temporal data, it is common to encounter features whose distribution is changing over time. The naive employment of Machine Learning models on this unstable data might lead to rapidly degrading performance, especially if the new distribution is much different from what was previously seen during training. In order to cope with this problem, it is critical to automatically identify features that are changing over time. With these features detected, data scientists and other practitioners will be able to mitigate the issue (for instance, by applying data transformations), deploying more robust models that retain high performance for longer periods of time. In this paper, we describe which temporal changes a feature should not suffer from, and propose TEDD, a technique to a) identify when a dataset might lead to an unstable Machine Learning model and b) automatically detect which features cause such lack of robustness. In order to achieve it, we leverage a regression model to highlight which features contribute to a good prediction of an instance's timestamp. We compare our approach to other methods in real and synthetic data, testing their detection capability on all simple change patterns. We show that our method: detects all types of basic changes, both for numerical and categorical features; can detect multivariate drifts; returns a comparable value measuring the amount of change of each feature; requires no parameter tuning; and is scalable both on number of features and instances of the dataset.
The expansion of the digital domain has resulted in a substantial increase in digital communication, with email emerging as one of the most prominent channels. The proliferation of email communication is apparent in both professional and personal contexts, thereby creating numerous vulnerabilities for malicious actors to exploit. Spam emails, a form of unsolicited correspondence often bearing malicious intent towards recipients, have been an ongoing challenge for email users since the inception of email technology, and this problem has been exacerbated by the growth of the digital landscape. Email spam filters are integral components of email clients, engineered to identify potentially harmful messages and alert users to their malicious content. Phishing, frequently the initial phase of malware-based attacks, is evolving rapidly, with malware becoming increasingly sophisticated over time. A widely adopted approach for detecting malicious activity within malware and spam domains is the application of machine learning. Our aim is to assess the impact of the evolution within the spam email domain on these machine learning-based detection systems and to explore strategies for mitigating associated performance degradation.
Mingchen Ma, Guyang Cao, Jelena Diakonikolas +1cs.LG
We study the problem of learning a drifting concept in the presence of Massart noise. In this framework, an online learner has access to a history of independent samples whose labels are noisy versions of a target concept that may change from round to round. The goal is to output, in each round, a hypothesis with small prediction error. We study the complexity of this learning problem for the fundamental class of margin-separable linear classifiers (halfspaces). On the positive side, we give a computationally efficient learner achieving error $η+ \tilde O(Δ^{1/3}/γ)$, where $η$ upper bounds the Massart noise rate, $Δ$ is the drift rate, and $γ$ is the margin. Interestingly, in the realizable setting, an adaptation of our techniques yields an efficient learner with an improved error rate over prior work. On the lower-bound side, we provide formal evidence of an information-computation tradeoff, strongly suggesting that our algorithm's performance is essentially optimal. Specifically, while the information-theoretically optimal error scales with $Δ^{1/2}$, we prove that $Δ^{1/3}$-scaling is unavoidable for low-degree polynomial tests, even in the special case of random classification noise.
Vitor Cerqueira, Heitor Murilo Gomes, Marco Heyden +2cs.LG stat.ML
Data stream mining is fundamentally challenged by concept drift, where distributional changes can degrade model performance. Despite the proliferation of drift detection methods, progress in the field is hindered by inconsistent evaluation practices: studies rely on oversimplified synthetic data generators, adopt incompatible metrics, and lack transparency in hyperparameter selection, making fair comparisons difficult. We address this gap with a novel benchmarking framework comprising three contributions: (1) a drift simulation method that injects controlled distributional changes into real-world datasets via Monte Carlo trials, enabling supervised evaluation while preserving real-world data complexity; (2) an evaluation protocol for drift detection with timing-aware criteria, including the derivation of new metrics (e.g., F1 detection score, normalized detection time) that are comparable across streams; and (3) we advocate for a leave-one-dataset-out hyperparameter optimization protocol for drift detection methods that promotes configuration robustness across heterogeneous stream dynamics. We benchmark 14 widely used drift detection methods on 7 realworld datasets across 4 drift types (class prior, label swap, feature permutation, feature filtering), each under both abrupt and gradual transitions. Our experimental results provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current drift detection approaches while establishing baseline performance metrics for future research in this area. All code and experiments are publicly available.