Interactive simulations increasingly evaluate policies in markets populated by language-model agents. Their outputs can look economic---prices, profits, consumer surplus, and welfare---without instantiating the behavior named in the claim. We audit this risk in a multi-turn buyer--seller testbed for configurable hotel transactions. An initial implementation reported welfare gains from two marketplace guardrails of +87.4, +35.0, and +28.8 across a Qwen2.5 1.5B--14B ladder. It also gave guarded and unguarded agents different offer schemas and choice procedures. Holding the schema and buyer chooser fixed changes the paired contrasts to +7.2, -13.9, and +23.8. The four largest 14B single-generation effects averaged +229; after three generations per profile-condition, they averaged +37.6 (95% bootstrap interval [-34.2, 109.3]), while generation residuals account for 49.9% of variation in this post-hoc probe. A seller-incentive check is non-monotone: increasing profit pressure produces less profit than the default seller prompt. Scripted positive controls show why this matters. A profit-maximizing seller already attains first-best welfare, so guardrails mostly redistribute and reduce welfare; they create welfare only when the seller is explicitly programmed to force inefficient bundles. We contribute a construct-validity contract separating incentive validity, protocol isolation, stochastic stability, and welfare accounting, and returning INVALID or INCONCLUSIVE before substantive policy claims. In our case, the original estimate is INVALID under protocol isolation, while the controlled study remains INCONCLUSIVE under incentive validity and stochastic stability. The case does not show that guardrails are ineffective; it shows their apparent value is unidentified until the simulated agents and protocol pass these checks.
Frontier-model leaderboards now rank systems based on economic benchmarks, tests of how well models carry out professional tasks from software engineering to banking workflows, and those rankings inform what organisations buy, what regulators scrutinise, and expectations of how work will change. Whether such benchmarks measure a capability distinct from general test-taking, or re-express the one axis along which every benchmark rises as models improve, is a question of construct validity that has not yet been studied. We test it on a hash-pinned leaderboard snapshot of 421 model configurations across twelve benchmarks, four of them economic, treating benchmarks as items and models as respondents in a latent-variable model with four hypotheses and their thresholds fixed before analysis. A single factor explains 74.5% of common variance and tracks model release date (R^2 = 0.505), so the leading axis of capability is substantially a time trend; where prior work controls for scale, compute adds little once date is removed. Removing the date trend lowers that share by 14.9 points, and by 24.1 with one row per base model. Under the dimensionality rule fixed in advance the economic benchmarks form no distinct factor, yet a leave-one-benchmark-out test with factors re-estimated inside every fold shows that a multi-factor representation predicts held-out economic scores better than a single general index (pooled Delta-MSE 0.037, 95% bootstrap interval [0.019, 0.055]). Economic benchmarks therefore add incremental predictive information to a largely date-driven general factor, and the evidence does not support treating them as a distinct latent capability. Leaderboards remain a sound guide to overall progress, but most of the gap between models released months apart is calendar, so a small gap between contemporaneous models should be date-adjusted before being read as a capability difference.
Elena Badillo-Goicoechea, Fengfeng Hestat.ML cs.LG
Music recommendation relies primarily on two signals: user-item interactions, which fail in the cold-start regime, and intrinsic musical content, available for any recording. We argue that a third, largely untapped signal is both richer and more principled: critical adjacency, the pairwise relation established when an expert critic explicitly links two artists in long-form prose. It encodes deliberate judgments about which artists belong together. Prior work established its internal validity, showing it recovers coherent, interpretable communities and can match collaborative filtering in user-satisfaction simulations, with no user data. What has been missing is external validation: whether this critic-sourced relation is grounded in the music itself versus sociological context. We test it against acoustic content, reframing the question as one of construct validity. Representing artists as empirical distributions over 80 low-level Essentia acoustic descriptors and modeling pairwise proximity via marginal optimal-transport (Wasserstein) distances, we evaluate how far critical adjacency is sonically recoverable under a cold-start, artist-disjoint split. Our ensemble recovers these edges at out-of-sample AUC of 0.767 (95% CI 0.761-0.775). Recoverability rises monotonically with critical consensus, reaching 0.865 on multi-source attested edges. Stratified evaluations align with sociological models of genre: tightly bounded, scene-based genres show higher recoverability than broad industry umbrella terms. Critical discourse is thus a rich source of information for recommendation, decomposing into a reproducible "sonic core" and a "sociological remainder" driven by narrative positioning, subcultural context, and canonical placement. The work offers both a scalable cold-start discovery mechanism and a sociologically grounded approach to MIR and MRS research.
LLM-as-a-judge evaluation is usually assessed by agreement and robustness to surface perturbations, but reliability does not establish construct validity. We formalize construct validity for an evaluator as a two-dimensional profile: invariance S, the probability that a verdict is unchanged under construct-preserving edits, and construct sensitivity R, the probability that it changes under minimal construct-changing edits. We show that S and R are independent and that no scalar summary preserves all relevant comparisons. We measure the profile across 7 judges and 4 domains using 7 construct-changing intervention types and 5 register-only controls, with intervention direction determined by human annotators and generation, verification, and judging assigned to disjoint model families. At matched invariance S >= 0.90, judges average S = 0.945 but R = 0.319. Sensitivity also differs between scope and strength edits: R_scope = 0.383 versus R_strength = 0.262, a +0.121 gap with the same sign for all 7 judges. We further audit five public label sets and find that surface-only predictors reproduce 55%-67% of labels in paired mode, including 67.4% of MT-Bench human votes. These results show that high judge agreement can coexist with weak sensitivity to changes in the construct being evaluated, motivating joint reporting of invariance and sensitivity and auditing the validation set itself.
Security evaluations of tool-using agents often equate stored labels with behavioral facts. We audit a preserved campaign by tracing 10,200 execution rows to 180 model-bound requests, 45 semantic requests, and 15 observable stimuli. Two schema treatments were delivered, but the planned external payload-family corpus was not. The historical grader exhibited direct treatment leakage: treatment metadata gated the ATTACK_SUCCESS class, so fixed behavior could change class under treatment relabeling. A treatment-blind reconstruction corrects 58 historical ATTACK_SUCCESS or HIJACK_ATTEMPT labels to authorized benign completions while preserving three verified protected-data transfers and one separate unauthorized-forwarding case. The locked v2 census contains exactly zero ATTACK_SUCCESS records, while the forwarding case remains a HIJACK_ATTEMPT at a semantic boundary concerning objective completion. A dual-reviewer blinded concordance review of all 96 requests deemed structurally interpretable by locked v2 produced identical reviewer-consensus classes but differed from the locked codebook on four construct-boundary cases. We contribute a seven-link Integrity Chain and an executable, scope-bounded endpoint-integrity linter. The result is a campaign-bounded measurement audit, not a population attack-rate, model-ranking, defense-efficacy, or causal estimate.
High-stakes English proficiency tests treat standardized, unaided performance as evidence for score interpretations about academic English proficiency. This interpretation remains meaningful, but as target language use domains increasingly involve generative AI, the extrapolation from unaided test performance to academic communicative readiness becomes less self-evident. This conceptual validity argument reframes AI as a score-interpretation problem in high-stakes language testing, not only an operational issue of scoring, feedback, security, or misconduct. Synthesizing current literature in three uneven layers, the paper shows that most work treats AI as assessment infrastructure, while far less theorizes its implications for construct validity and extrapolation warrants. It defines AI-mediated construct drift as the misalignment that arises when communicative abilities required in the target domain change through AI mediation while test constructs remain anchored to an unaided-performance model. It proposes bounded AI mediation as a validity-oriented design principle: a standardized condition in which all test takers access the same institutionally controlled AI assistant, with predefined assistance boundaries, logged interactions, and tasks that distinguish comprehension support from answer generation. The paper argues that score interpretations should be narrowed and supplemented when used to support claims about AI-mediated academic communication.
A national language model offers a linguistic community its own instrument for measuring what its citizens say and value. Portugal's AMALIA, a publicly funded 9B-parameter model for European Portuguese, appears competitive on agreement alone: asked to code the moral foundation of authority, it agrees with trained human coders to within six F1 points of open models eight to thirteen times its size. Yet agreement is reliability, not validity. For theoretical constructs that must be inferred rather than read from surface features, the question is whether the model follows the construct's theory or reaches the right code by correlated shortcuts. We test this with the recovery gap: the loss in performance when a holistic prompt is decomposed into the codebook's atomic clauses and recombined by the theory's explicit rule. If calibration closes that gap, some portability should survive across models and languages; where it does not, the construct-model instrument is the likely locus of failure. We ask whether a calibrated English instrument transfers to AMALIA-9B and to European Portuguese. For one construct and one corpus, it does not. Decomposition recovers only about half of AMALIA's holistic performance, and error analysis suggests reliance on surface correlates, especially moral outrage near authority figures. An open multilingual LLM closes the gap on the same Portuguese corpus under the same instructions, pointing away from the corpus as the main explanation. AMALIA can still screen and pre-code at scale, but it cannot yet measure this construct well enough to stand alone. The study is a single counterexample, not a verdict on national models; it argues that sovereign-LLM benchmark batteries should test not only agreement with human coders, but the evidential route by which that agreement is warranted.
When a large language model (LLM) codes a construct in text as a human annotator would, that agreement makes the LLM a reliable coder. Yet reliability leaves construct validity untouched. The instrument may be theory-naive, reaching the code through a correlate that meets none of the demands the construct's theory makes, and no current method tells that apart from genuine measurement. We propose grain calibration as a method that closes the gap. It decomposes a construct into clause-level components, tests each against the text with extractive evidence, and combines the results through an explicit, theory-derived rule. Because the rule is stated rather than lodged in one opaque pass, its structure is evidence about the process rather than the output. It shows which components settled a code, and, when the code is wrong, whether a component was missed or an adjacent construct mistaken for it. Validation shifts from scoring an instrument's outputs against an annotator to showing that the instrument runs on the construct its theory specifies.
David Vella Zarb, Rustem Turtayev, Taywon Min +2cs.CL
Safety evaluations often infer latent motivations from behavioral patterns, but the construct validity of these inferences is unclear. We study this problem in alignment faking, where models comply with training objectives more often when they infer training pressure. This behavior is commonly interpreted as strategic self-preservation, but it may also reflect sensitivity to the model's inference about the expectation of researchers conducting the evaluation. We introduce a symmetric intervention framework for distinguishing these competing hypotheses. Instead of directly intervening on "scheming" or "sycophancy", we target instrumental processes entailed by each hypothesis: consequence-tracking and researcher-expectation tracking. We then compare how interventions on these processes affect the alignment faking. We study four openweight model organisms using synthetic document fine-tuning, activation steering, and prompting. Under synthetic document fine-tuning, Llama-3.1-70B, Llama3.1-405B, and Qwen-2.5-72B are more sensitive to expectation-tracking than consequence-tracking interventions. Activation steering on Llama-3.1- 70B supports the same broad picture, and prompt interventions broadly align with SDF profiles. Overall, alignment-faking behavior can be causally sensitive to evaluation-context expectations despite scheming-consistent scratchpads. Scheming and strategic-deception evaluations therefore need construct-validity checks, and symmetric instrumental interventions provide one such test.