Auditing Question-Order Effects in Large Language Models with the QQ Equality: Mechanism Characterization and a Saturation Caveat

Question-order effects in human survey data have been reported to approximately satisfy the QQ (quantum question) equality, a parameter-free prediction of the standard projective quantum question-order model. We develop this equality into an audit framework for sequential binary judgments of autoregressive large language models (LLMs). Theoretically, we characterize mechanism families that satisfy QQ robustly, show that classical repetition can reproduce the equality exactly, and combine QQ with the rank-2 Contextuality-by-Default criterion through $|q_{QQ}| \le \mathrm{OSS}$. This separates order sensitivity, QQ imbalance, and residual contextuality rather than treating them as interchangeable signatures. Methodologically, we introduce a committed multi-turn forced-branch protocol that reconstructs order-conditioned joint distributions from next-token log-probabilities under counterbalanced label mappings and pre-specified health gates. A first-signal pilot on an open-weight instruction-tuned model reveals the central measurement problem. Although all pre-specified health gates passed, the binary-conditioned distributions were near-deterministic for 17 of 18 item pairs under the direct-evaluation framing and 7 of 8 under the persona framing. Label assignment materially changed several mapping-specific QQ verdicts, and no item was certified as residually contextual. Thus, under the tested conditions, the observed QQ outcomes did not uniquely identify a response mechanism in the presence of a saturated and label-sensitive measurement interface. The main implication is methodological: next-token probabilities should not be interpreted as survey-response distributions without first establishing adequate dispersion. We therefore argue that saturation screening and label counterbalancing should precede structural interpretation in distribution-level audits of LLM judgments.

A cubical formalisation of topos causal models: intervention, forcing, and a contextuality obstruction

Topos causal models recast causal inference inside a topos: a causal world is a presheaf, an intervention is a sub-model named by a characteristic map into the subobject classifier $\Om$, and reasoning is Kripke-Joyal forcing in an intuitionistic internal language. We give the first axiom-free machine-checked account of this 1-topos core, in Cubical Agda over a previously verified probability monad and do-calculus; the framework is otherwise developed on paper, with central claims stated rather than proved. Three of our results go beyond faithful transcription. We exhibit a contextuality obstruction the programme does not treat: pairwise-consistent local causal data with no global model, detected by a degree-one holonomy class. We delimit the claim that interventions are modelled by the subobject classifier: an intervention and an observation name the same subobject, so $\Om$ fixes the target of a do-operation but not the operation itself, which is surgery on the kernels --- where, on a confounder, the interventional and observational laws differ. And we settle the modal unit --- inflationarity is derivable from $j\top = \top$ and naturality, not a fourth axiom. We also machine-check the classifier of sieves with its classification theorem, the pullback collating local mechanisms, and the Kripke-Joyal forcing clauses. The development assumes no axioms and typechecks under Agda's \texttt{--safe} flag, with the ordered field discharged at $\mathbb{Q}$; type-level sheafification and a directed do-calculus are future work.

Quantum Logic as the Logic of Contexts

Quantum logic is usually presented as a non-classical departure from ordinary reasoning forced on us by quantum mechanics, with classical logic kept as the secure starting point. We argue for the opposite order of explanation in a finite and fully computable setting. The free orthomodular lattice on two generators has ninety-six elements, the direct product of a six-element non-distributive factor and a sixteen-element Boolean factor. Reading the first factor as a register of contexts and the second as Boolean content, we obtain a calculus whose elements are context--bit-vector pairs and whose operations act component by component. With this calculus we establish three results. First, we classify the six layers by commutativity, identifying the central kernel of context-neutral propositions together with a dual central layer in which all complementary contexts are present. Second, we show that orthocomplementation rearranges the layers exactly as the complementation of the small factor rearranges its elements, which makes the duality among the layers rigid rather than accidental. Third, we prove that the operation forgetting the context is a surjective homomorphism of orthocomplemented lattices whose quotient is the classical Boolean algebra, so that classical logic is a six-to-one, information-losing image of the contextual calculus.