ShardMeter: Sharded and Geo-Distributed Training Without the Guesswork

Training large-scale AI models often outgrows a single data center, demanding sharded, multi-cluster, and decentralized training. However, the huge space of resource allocations makes exhaustive benchmarking and manual tuning impractical, while performance depends on tightly coupled factors like model size, GPU memory, batch size, bandwidth, and sharding strategy. We introduce ShardMeter, a lightweight analytical performance model that predicts the end-to-end runtime of transformer-based workloads across arbitrary sharded, distributed, and even decentralized training. Given a model's characteristics and a target hardware topology, ShardMeter estimates per-GPU and per-island throughput, training cost, total wall-clock time, and identifies performance bottlenecks. Our analysis reveals diminishing-return regimes as island size increases, quantifies transitions between compute- and communication-bound scaling, evaluates hyperparameter trade-offs, and models cost-throughput for large-scale decentralized training. ShardMeter exposes these insights to quickly explore the configuration space, choose near-optimal deployment plans, and avoid costly trial and error.

Competing at Every Price Point with Agentic Evolution over a Menu of LLMs

Consider a firm that surveys its competition for a particular agentic task and seeks to offer superior accuracy at every competitor price point. A firm that Pareto-dominated its competitors would leave no rational customer a reason to buy elsewhere. This paper shows a path to this kind of capability via agentic evolution over a menu of LLMs, from training pools of at most 100 examples. Given a priced menu of nine LLM endpoints; brief documentation of the task, objective, and API; a simple seed agent; and an operator-chosen per-problem cost target - usually set at an incumbent's own price - RoboPhD, an evolutionary meta-agent, evolves complete agent programs that attack the public frontiers of two semantically dissimilar tasks point by point: DS-1000 (execution-checked code generation) and PaperFindingBench (LLM-judged scientific document retrieval). Our officially scored submissions hold every Pareto-frontier slot but one on the two tasks' leaderboards, including Pareto domination of both the top-scoring and the lowest-cost competing points.

Task-to-Model Optimization for Enterprise LLM Coding Assistants: A Data-Driven Framework for Cost-Optimal Routing

Enterprise AI coding assistants incur substantial inference spend, and naive token-cost minimization often fails to reduce end-to-end cost once retries, escalations, and developer wait time are included. We present Task-to-Model Optimization (T2MO), a data-driven methodology for optimizing model selection in production coding workflows. We treat each developer session as a task that can be discovered, classified, graded for difficulty, benchmarked in a production-like harness, and routed to the cheapest model able to complete it within quality and latency constraints. The framework is a nine-stage pipeline spanning telemetry instrumentation, taxonomy discovery, difficulty grading, benchmark construction, candidate evaluation, optimal mix derivation, forecasting and version planning, staged routing deployment, and continuous governance. Unlike token-centric routing rules, our objective is cost per completed task, with failure escalation priced in explicitly. We show that this expected-completion-cost objective weakly dominates token-cost minimization under escalation, and we derive the routing boundary, the minimum pass rate a cheaper model must reach on a given cell to be worth deploying. Decisions are organized as a two-level hierarchy of task category difficulty tier, and per-cell displacement opportunities are aggregated into a traffic-weighted savings waterfall that ranks replacement candidates by realized dollar impact. The framework supports developer guidance, spend forecasting, and a staged transition from static policies to shadow-mode classifiers, verified cascades, and ultimately an intelligent router. We describe the methodology, optimization objective, evaluation protocol, and governance loop in a form suitable for production deployment and future empirical study.

ScaleSense: Cost-Intelligent Scaling Framework via Learned Resource Estimation in Alibaba AnalyticDB

Cloud-native serverless data warehouses achieve fine-grained elasticity by decoupling storage from compute, yet determining the optimal resource allocation for highly heterogeneous ad-hoc queries remains a formidable industrial challenge. Our analysis of production workloads in Alibaba AnalyticDB exposes a costly ``provisioning trap'': the fear of catastrophic resource depletion drives users to blindly over-provision resources, wasting immense monetary budgets without alleviating non-CPU bottlenecks (e.g., I/O saturation). To break this impasse, we propose ScaleSense, a proactive, query-level resource scaling framework. Specifically, it features a multi-faceted query encoder that jointly models plan topologies and hardware specifications. Crucially, a quantile-based resource predictor estimates multi-dimensional physical footprints, acting as a reliable safety net for optimal resource scaling. An auto-scaling controller then navigates the performance-cost Pareto frontier, dynamically tailoring allocations to specific business priorities without requiring model retraining. Evaluations on over 1.36 million production queries show that ScaleSense achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy with good prediction interval coverage. By achieving a 76.7% relative improvement in optimal resource configuration selection over the best baseline, this approach addresses the critical performance-cost trade-off while maintaining low-overhead inference latency, confirming its practical performance in production deployments. Under the performance-optimization policy, ScaleSense satisfies user-defined performance requirements while reducing monetary cost by up to 5.22x.

Vehicle routing problem using deep reinforcement learning - A case study about truck planning in the industry

As an important component of the supply chain industry, transportation has experienced rapid development in the past decade with the assistance of digital platforms and intelligent algorithms. Within the field of transportation research, Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) has remained a persistent and enduring challenge. In the realm of management science, experts, and scholars from both the industrial and academic sectors have continuously explored optimization models and algorithms to effectively address routing problems, from the classical Traveling Salesman Problem to the more general Vehicle Routing Problem. These models and algorithms are applied in real-world industrial scenarios to achieve cost optimization and reduce carbon footprints. However, due to the complexity of real-world problems, numerous specific constraints are often added, and challenges such as information opacity, uncertainty, and irrational human behavior may arise. Therefore, deploying and optimizing mathematical models for VRP in practical scenarios while maintaining optimal results poses numerous challenges. This paper discusses and provides solutions for three different logistic use cases involving external truck network design. Through these industrial case study, the paper introduces how deep reinforcement learning-based vehicle routing optimization has been implemented. As a result, it can be observed that the routes optimized by reinforcement learning agent have over 10% total cost compared to baseline results. Furthermore, the paper proposes that in future research, DRL algorithms for vehicle routing problems could be generalized into more variations of VRP.

Cache-Aware Prompt Compression:A Two-Tier Cost Model for LLM API Caching

Production LLM deployments combine two cost-reduction primitives: prompt caching (a discounted rate for re-used token prefixes) and prompt compression (fewer tokens sent). The compression literature has standardized on query-aware methods that produce a different compressed prefix per query, mechanically invalidating the prefix-strict cache on every call. We characterize this cost empirically on Anthropic's Sonnet 4.6 API and find caching is far from the rho=1.0 ideal the literature assumes: Sonnet's cache has a two-tier architecture with a sharp threshold near 3,500 tokens, below which the hit rate plateaus at rho~0.83 across 30-call sessions. Our cost model predicts, and experiments confirm, that under realistic rho, query-aware compression beats naive caching at high compression ratios (r>=6). We propose Cache-Aware Prompt Compression (CAPC), pairing query-agnostic compression with explicit cache_control plus a tier-preserving ratio bound that prevents over-compression from pushing the cached prefix into the hot tier. CAPC is the cheapest strategy in 16/16 configurations on LongBench-v2, with mean savings of 49% over cache-only, 64% over query-aware compression, and 90% over vanilla, at quality within 0.05 of the uncompressed baseline. We validate CAPC on three production workloads: an enterprise tool-using assistant with a 94k-token schema prefix (51.7% cost reduction at r=3); a graphify knowledge-graph RAG pipeline across two codebases (9.3x vs cache-all on FastAPI, 2.4x on httpx); and the public tau-bench retail benchmark (50 tasks), where CAPC is the cheapest of four strategies with reward exactly equal to vanilla (both 36/50, p=1.00) while query-aware compression is the most expensive at +40.1% over vanilla -- the first production confirmation of the crossover model's negative-ROI prediction on a public benchmark.

An Auto-Scaling Approach for Serverless Environments Based on a Multi-Expert Consensus Mechanism

Serverless computing provides automatic resource management and pay-per-use execution, but effective autoscaling remains challenging because of dynamic workloads, cold-start latency, and dependencies among functions. We present a dependency-aware autoscaling framework that integrates graph-based bottleneck identification, short-term workload forecasting, multi-model consensus, and cost-aware scaling control. Serverless applications are represented as directed dependency graphs, and structurally important functions are identified using weighted degree centrality. Resource demand is predicted using lightweight MLP, LSTM, and CNN models. Their outputs are combined through a performance-weighted probabilistic ensemble inspired by Bayesian model averaging. The controller further incorporates cold-start awareness and cost comparison to select among scale-up, scale-down, and hold actions. Experiments using real workload traces show that supervised forecasting substantially outperforms unsupervised clustering for autoscaling decision generation. The proposed ensemble achieves 99.88 percent prediction accuracy and reduces prediction error compared with representative hybrid forecasting methods. Evaluations across multiple cloud pricing models also demonstrate consistent infrastructure cost reductions while maintaining performance targets. The results show that combining dependency analysis, multi-expert forecasting, and cost-aware control provides a robust and practical solution for serverless autoscaling.

Cost-Optimal Foundation Model Deployment Portfolio for Transportation Management

Foundation models, including large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs), are increasingly used for transportation management center (TMC) tasks such as anomaly detection, incident reporting, and traveler information. Deploying multiple such models across TMC functions raises a portfolio question: which model should serve each function, in which deployment mode, and under what shared hardware budget? We formulate this as the Foundation Model Deployment Portfolio (FMDP) problem, a mixed-integer program minimizing total cost of ownership (TCO) subject to per-function quality, latency, and safety constraints over shared GPU capacity. We prove the problem NP-hard by reduction from the 0-1 knapsack problem and propose a polynomial-time greedy heuristic. In an illustrative case study with five TMC functions and 19 candidate (model, mode) pairs, FMDP identifies a mixed portfolio costing $34/mo (97% below the cheapest feasible all-closed-API baseline) by routing four functions to open-source APIs and the one function whose quality floor no open-source model meets to a closed API. Break-even analysis shows that on-premise GPU investment becomes reasonable only above approximately 309 vision queries/hour or if API prices double.

CLOUDADV: Decision-Aligned Instance Sizing with Zero-Shot Foundation Models under Drift

Cloud virtual machines are often overprovisioned, creating avoidable cost and operational inefficiency. We present CLOUDADV, an interactive engineer-facing advisory system for cloud instance sizing under workload drift. The system combines zero-shot time-series forecasting with bounded recommendation generation across day-, week-, and month-scale planning horizons. For each query, CLOUDADV constructs a structured decision context from historical utilization, forecast summaries, current VM metadata, candidate instance options, pricing, and explicit sizing heuristics. A higher-capacity LLM is used offline to generate reference recommendations, while a smaller production model is evaluated on the same prompts to assess deployment-time alignment under latency and cost constraints. Evaluation prioritizes downstream recommendation quality using simulated Azure cost savings and ex-post exceedance, with rolling-origin forecast accuracy reported as a secondary diagnostic against classical and supervised baselines. In a case study of seven production VMs, the reference recommendations reduce simulated monthly cost from about \$1,503 to \$708, yielding \$795/month in savings (52.9%) under conservative heuristic constraints, while the highest observed exceedance rate among downgraded cases is 1.5%. Although Chronos-2 does not minimize every forecasting metric, it often induces recommendation patterns similar to those of a supervised per-VM baseline. These results suggest that zero-shot foundation models can support decision-aligned provisioning in non-stationary cloud environments while reducing the operational burden of repeated per-tenant retraining, revalidation, and redeployment.

Cluster, Route, Escalate: Cascaded Framework for Cost-Aware LLM Serving

Efficient deployment of large language models (LLMs) in production forces a trade-off between accuracy and cost. Operators often default to a single model that is either expensive for easy queries or insufficient for hard ones. To address this challenge, we propose a two-stage cascaded solution. Stage 1 clusters incoming queries and assigns each cluster to its most cost-effective model. The cost budget for this routing process is set by an interpretable hyperparameter, tuned offline. Stage 2 adds a quality estimation (QE) cascade; when an output from Stage 1 is judged low-quality, the query is escalated to a stronger model. This ensures only hard or low-confidence cases reach the expensive models. On the test datasets, the cascaded system retains 97-99% of the strongest model's accuracy while reducing Time Per Output Token (TPOT). It requires only task-correctness labels and adapts to changes in the model pool without manual reconfiguration.

DocHRL: A Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Framework for Cost-Optimised Document Classification

Real-world document classification pipelines typically apply the same sequence of models to every incoming document, regardless of its complexity or type. This leads to inefficient use of compute and human resources: simple documents are over-processed while difficult ones may not receive enough scrutiny. We introduce DocHRL, a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that learns to adaptively and dynamically select the most cost-effective classification policy on a per-document basis. DocHRL formulates document classification as a sequential decision problem with a two-level policy hierarchy: a top-level policy selects among broad options (vision classifiers, LLMs, OCR, and human-in-the-loop review), while option-specific sub-policies choose the concrete model or tool to invoke. The reward signal is the negative total expected cost, which captures inference cost, cost of misclassification, and cost of human labelling. Trained with Proximal Policy Optimisation on the RVL-CDIP benchmark, DocHRL achieves a macro F1 of 0.973 across 16 document classes while reducing average per-document cost to 2.74 normalised units compared to substantially higher costs incurred by fixed standalone classifiers. Our results demonstrate that cost-aware reinforcement learning can simultaneously improve classification performance and operational efficiency in document understanding systems.

Memory as a Wasting Asset: Pricing Flash Endurance for Embodied Agents, and the Limits of Doing So

A robot's flash endurance is a non-renewable stock: every persisted write spends one of a few thousand program/erase cycles and never refills, yet no fielded robot memory system prices which memories are worth an erase cycle. We treat embodied memory as depreciating capital and price that stock with a single endurance shadow price $η$, which makes cost-minimizing placement across a RAM / on-board NVM / cloud hierarchy a threshold in a wear-augmented per-byte index. The index is cost-optimal whatever the sign of the value-write association $χ$; only when $χ> 0$ does the optimum turn non-monotone, sending a robot's most valuable memories off its flash. The pivot is thus empirical, and we measure $χ$ on real robot logs at a pre-specified gate: its sign is a property of the deployment regime -- positive on recurrent long-horizon manipulation ($\hatχ \approx +1.0 \times 10^{-3}$, replicated at full power), null on a shorter-horizon suite, and negative on non-recurrent teleoperation. Two boundaries scope the result. The endurance budget is dormant on premium 3,000-P/E TLC at datasheet prices and binding on the commodity QLC/eMMC ($\sim$1,000 P/E) that cheaper edge robots run. And where it binds, a learned wear-aware controller only ties price-based routing on task value, because realized value is tier-invariant across RAM, NVM, and cloud: the rent governs device lifetime and cost, not task performance. Whether wear-aware placement improves task value remains open -- $χ$ is measured against a value proxy, and the non-monotone optimum, while proven, is not yet observed in data.

Cost-Optimal LLM Routing with Limited User Feedback under User Satisfaction Guarantees

Inference costs for large language model (LLM) applications are rapidly growing, driven by surging demand and rising infrastructure cost. Users expect high-quality responses, and in commercial settings this is formally codified in Service Level Agreements (SLAs), creating a fundamental tension between cost and quality. Recent progress on cost-aware LLM request routing has shown potential to resolve this tension, but existing approaches rely on complete feedback signals, offline training, extensive per-workload tuning, and most lack SLA guarantees or inference-time adaptivity. We introduce SLARouter, an online routing algorithm that learns a cost-optimal policy from the sparse, one-sided user feedback available in production systems. SLARouter provides theoretical guarantees for both cost optimality and strict SLA compliance. Experiments across a wide range of LLM benchmarks show that SLARouter satisfies SLA constraints without the need for per-benchmark tuning, reducing operating cost by up to 2.2x over existing baselines.

Brick: Spatial Capability Routing for the Mixture-of-Models (MoM) Paradigm

Defining query difficulty is one of the hardest problems in deployment engineering. Existing LLM routers rely on surface features such as domain labels, keywords, and token count, ignoring the within-domain variance that actually determines model success. Frontier models cost ten to one hundred times more than local open-weight models, so at production scale even small per-request savings become a direct cloud-bill lever. We present Brick, a multimodal router that scores each model on six capability dimensions, combines this with a per-query difficulty estimate, and dispatches via a cost-penalized geometric rule. A continuous preference knob lets operators slide between max-quality and max-saving profiles at deploy time. On a benchmark of 5,504 queries, Brick at max-quality reaches 76.98% accuracy, beating the best single model (75.02%) and all tested routers. At a neutral cost-quality profile, Brick achieves 74.11% accuracy at 4.71x lower cost than always using the strongest model. At min-cost, it cuts cost 22.15x with 11.85 points accuracy loss. Median latency drops from 51.2s to 22.8s.

What Should a Skill Remember? Quality-Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents

Large language model agents increasingly rely on skills: reusable procedural documents encoding workflows, tool use, implementation patterns, validation checks, and domain rules. Skill rewriting is often treated as prompt compression, but shorter skills can make agents more expensive by removing sparse operational anchors that prevent exploration, debugging, and recovery. We study skill rewriting through this economic lens. Our controlled framework profiles skill structure, rewrites skills using information-preservation strategies, and evaluates the rewrites under fixed task instructions, environments, and verifiers. Experiments on SkillsBench reveal distinct quality--cost trade-offs across strategies: API/code anchoring, workflow guarding, and rule/formula anchoring benefit different task families, with no universally dominant template. In the main held-out evaluation, the learned policy reduces total cost by 7.0\% and downstream agent-token cost by 6.0\%; in frozen cross-model transfer, the corresponding reductions average 14.7\% and 13.7\%, while verifier quality is preserved. These results position skill design as cost-aware operational knowledge engineering rather than prompt compression. Resources: \href{https://github.com/1Reminding/Skill_EE}{SkillEE}.

Cost-Aware Speculative Execution for LLM-Agent Workflows: An Integrated Five-Dimension Method

LLM-agent workflows chain model calls and tool invocations, and spend most of their wall-clock time waiting on upstream operations before downstream ones can start. Speculative execution can reclaim that idle time by launching a downstream operation with a predicted upstream input, but here each speculation costs real money (per-token billing) and its success probability is hard to estimate and drifts over time. This paper presents a method organized around five design decisions: (D1) start a downstream operation before its upstream completes; (D2) price each speculation in real dollars at separate input and output rates; (D3) expose a single operator dial for latency versus cost; (D4) decide via an expected-value rule with a failure-weighted cost term and a preference-adjusted threshold; and (D5) estimate the success probability with a Bayesian Beta-Binomial posterior whose prior is keyed to a dependency-type taxonomy. Variants of these ideas appear in recent work; the combination, with every decision logged in dollars, is what is new. The rule fires only on edges passing an admissibility precondition (side-effect-free, idempotent, or stageable behind a commit barrier), since a wrong speculation is rolled back by re-execution, which refunds tokens but cannot un-send an irreversible side effect. We specify the runtime mechanics, a closed-form result that the rule self-limits as the upstream branching factor grows, a five-stage calibration pipeline (offline replay, shadow, canary, online calibration, drift-triggered kill-switch), and a workload-fit rubric over eight production archetypes. Contrast tables against the four closest published systems (DSP, Speculative Actions v2, Sherlock, B-PASTE) show differentiators on every dimension, and a synthetic validation suite confirms the predicted decision boundary, probability threshold, posterior recovery, and streaming-cancellation behavior.

Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in workflows for generating formal proofs in Lean. These workflows often decompose problems into smaller lemmas, sample many proof attempts, and use compiler feedback to guide search. However, they can be prohibitively expensive, often spending substantial compute on attempts that ultimately fail. In this work, we address this problem with an action routing agent that consists of a data plane and a control plane. The data plane generates natural-language lemma decompositions, formalizes them in Lean, and samples proof attempts for the resulting theorem and lemma targets. The control plane observes previous failed Lean attempts, estimates both the likelihood of success and cost of another attempt, and decides whether to continue proving the current target or restart from a new breakdown. On a subset of PutnamBench, our agent decreases the cost by $25.8\%$ over a fixed-step baseline on average, preserving performance while using substantially less compute. These results suggest that failed Lean trajectories provide actionable signals for cost-aware resource allocation in agentic theorem proving.