Cryptocurrency markets generate high-frequency, multi-source data that is expensive to work with unless a team already has commercial-grade streaming and warehousing infrastructure in place. This paper describes a fully open-source pipeline that reproduces the behavior of a cloud-native, event-driven system -- file arrival triggering a message, a message triggering compute -- entirely on commodity hardware, using Apache Kafka and a filesystem-watching poller in place of managed cloud triggers. The pipeline partitions historical Gemini exchange data into hourly and minutely files, ingests them asynchronously through two independently grouped Kafka consumers (one for audit logging, one for Spark-triggered ETL), and lands cleaned output in a PostgreSQL warehouse with historical and aggregated schemas plus asset-specific data marts. We use the resulting Bitcoin data mart to compare a seasonal ARIMA model against a single-layer LSTM network for price forecasting, and separately apply Random Forest and Gradient Boosting classifiers, with additional engineered features, to the public Ethereum fraud detection benchmark introduced by Farrugia et al. We report the architecture, the modeling methodology, and the resulting metrics, and we are explicit about the limitations of comparing forecasts issued at different horizons and of evaluating fraud detection on a static, already-labeled dataset.
We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs. Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifact reconciliation, documentation, and source packaging, not trading decisions. The strongest later-period evidence, conditional on extensive predecessor search, is negative: an unchanged ten-pair mandatory-daily selector lost 6.72\% over 19 July cycles at an assumed 31-bps completed-cycle cost, with 3 wins and 16 losses. In short model-specific July evaluations, the validation-selected local-minimum policy returned -1.79\%, while the local-maximum sell-to-cash/re-entry policy underperformed continuous holding by 2.80\%; their gross mean advantages of 11.11 and 12.21 bps were below even the 21-bps stress. A Gurgul-inspired, OHLCV-only daily adaptation attained minimum/maximum ROC AUC of 0.874/0.896 but average precision of only 0.134/0.116 and lost 44.30\% over seven cycles, versus -41.20\% for buy-and-hold. A forensic audit also downgraded an earlier One4All "30-day holdout": its dates had influenced prior architecture work, its four-hour outcome horizon was not purged at split boundaries, it used same-close entry, and its raw result directories were absent. Across the tested, mostly exploratory protocols, event-ranking performance did not establish positive executable policy value. Every operational decision remains NO\_TRADE.
Arthur G. Bubolz, Abreu Quevedo, Giancarlo Lucca +3cs.LG cs.CE
The growing use of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset and investment tool has sparked strong interest in understanding its market behavior. This study presents a new approach to analyze Bitcoin market sentiment by combining on-chain and financial data with social media posts. Unlike models that aim to predict prices, this work focuses on explaining market sentiment using blockchain transactions, historical price data of Bitcoin, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications. The method merges sentiment trends with on-chain and financial metrics, normalized into a dataset for detailed market analysis. Multiple machine learning models were tested using cross-validation, with Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) emerging as the most reliable model for classifying sentiment, achieving an average F1-score of about 0.84. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a game theory-based method for model interpretability, was used to quantify the contribution of on-chain features to the model's predictions, improving transparency. The results indicate that this data combination yields meaningful predictive signals and insights, supporting data-driven cryptocurrency analysis and future improvements with deep learning.
We present a convolutional variational autoencoder for cryptocurrency implied-volatility surfaces, together with a deployable predictor that combines it with a quadratic smile re-fit through a deterministic per-tenor routing rule. Trained on 6,034 fully-filled hourly Binance Options surfaces of BTC and ETH spanning May-October 2023 and parameterised on a common $6 \times 7$ tenor-delta grid, the model attains a hidden-cell surface-completion RMSE in the 0.94-1.56 vol-point range across both markets and mask rates 10-50%. The hybrid predictor attains 0.83 vol points at 50% masking against 7.00 for the smile re-fit alone, an eightfold reduction obtained at no additional inference cost. Under structurally-correlated hole patterns that emulate the withdrawal of an entire tenor of strikes, the smile re-fit incurs 9.6-13.1 vol points of error while the learned model remains at 1.5-1.9, isolating a regime in which the generative model is the only viable predictor. Joint training on BTC and ETH improves the in-distribution model on both markets by 9-27% relative to the better-performing single-symbol counterpart, indicating a substantially shared vol-surface manifold across the two largest cryptocurrencies over the observation window. The hybrid is calendar- and butterfly-arbitrage-free at the listed strikes, a property that the parametric smile re-fit alone fails at high mask rates. The per-snapshot reconstruction error of the trained model flags the late-October ETF-anticipation rally and the August $17$, $2023$ flash crash as elevated-error periods without supervision. All training and evaluation infrastructure is released to support reproducible follow-on work.
Sarah Allen, Pranay Anchuri, James Austgen +22cs.CR cs.AI
The intersection of crypto x AI is spawning papers, products, online posts, and companies. All the surrounding buzz, though, obscures what exactly has been done, what the opportunities and challenges are, and what open questions deserve attention. This survey paper asks what AI can do for blockchain-based technologies (broadly construed as "crypto") (crypto x AI), and vice versa (AI x crypto). We systematize existing work, summarize key takeaways, highlight open research questions, and offer a perspective on pervasive industry misconceptions, concluding that AI and crypto are still in the very early stages of meaningful integration.
Damian Lebiedź, Robert Ślepaczukcs.LG cs.NE q-fin.ST q-fin.TR stat.ML
This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To address this need, this research introduces novel concepts. To construct a robust system, we developed a hierarchical "Filter-then-Rank" pair selection methodology and a proprietary "Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean" execution model. The system employs a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to govern execution decisions within strict deterministic risk management boundaries. Evaluated on 1-hour interval data from the Binance USD-M Futures market, the optimized RL policy achieved an out-of-sample performance that substantially outperformed the heuristic baseline. A stationary circular block bootstrap robustness check confirms that the agent's risk-adjusted outperformance is statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Although falling marginally short of the stricter 5 percent threshold, this result highlights the extreme idiosyncratic variance characteristic of digital assets. Ultimately, this thesis contributes to the quantitative finance literature by introducing a hybrid architecture that combines statistical arbitrage with DRL execution policies. Furthermore, it delivers a novel framework for safe reinforcement learning via deterministic shielding, proving that anchoring a neural policy to statistically robust boundaries successfully mitigates severe divergence risks.
Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.