Nowcasting headline macroeconomic indicators, i.e., estimating an indicator's value for the current reference period before its official release, is critical for monetary policy and financial markets, and central banks devote dedicated teams of expert economists to producing such estimates. Large language model (LLM) agents are a promising candidate for this task, combining broad world knowledge with real-time web search and supporting queries at higher frequency than institutional nowcasts. Evaluating their nowcasting capability is, however, challenging: headline indicators such as GDP and CPI are widely reported and likely memorized during pretraining, so any evaluation on historical releases is vulnerable to data contamination. To address this, we introduce LiveMacroEval, a live, contamination-resistant benchmark in which LLM agents produce hourly nowcasts for sixteen major U.S. macroeconomic indicators over a pre-release window closing at each official release. Nowcast quality is assessed through a LiveMacro Score against announcement-window equity returns and a LiveBetting Score from simulated Polymarket-style trading, with Federal Reserve regional-bank nowcasts, the Bloomberg ECOS professional consensus, and an auto-ARIMA baseline as comparators. Over six months with four state-of-the-art LLM agents configured with web search, aggregate nowcast accuracy is broadly comparable to the institutional and professional benchmarks, with performance varying widely across individual indicators. This highlights LLM agents' potential as real-time estimators of macroeconomic conditions.
Data contamination undermines the reliable evaluation of large language models (LLMs) on mathematical problem solving. While rewriting-based evaluation mitigates memorization, existing methods lack guarantees of problem validity and answer correctness. We propose Proof-Verified Benchmark Rewriting (RePro), the first framework to integrate Lean-oriented neural automated theorem provers (ATPs) into benchmark rewriting, which rewrites problems and regenerates answers with correctness ensured by Lean-verified proofs. Experiments on GSM8K and MATH show that RePro's retained rewritten instances achieve 100% well-definedness, feasibility, and answer correctness, while existing methods still produce invalid or incorrect instances. Moreover, several models exhibit accuracy drops on proof-verified rewritten benchmarks, suggesting that their performance is sensitive to surface-level and structural variations and may partly reflect memorization effects. Our source code and data are available at https://github.com/AI4Engi/RePro.
Mustafa Umut Ozbek, Taiwo Ojo, Pooria Madani +2cs.CR cs.LG
Machine-learning-based anomaly detection is increasingly used in industrial control systems (ICS), yet most studies assume that detector training data is trustworthy. In practice, training data may be corrupted through compromised logs, labeling errors, manipulated historian records, or unsafe retraining processes. This paper evaluates the robustness of offline ICS anomaly-detection pipelines on the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) benchmark under training-time contamination. We assess 11 heterogeneous anomaly detectors under three contamination strategies: random injection, similarity-targeted injection, and feature-noise injection. The first two insert attack samples into the nominal training pool, while the third adds bounded Gaussian noise to selected normal training samples. These attacks are contamination-based rather than gradient-driven poisoning methods. Contamination budgets from 1% to 10% are evaluated using clean validation and test sets under a unified offline protocol. The results show that robustness is strongly model-dependent and cannot be predicted from clean-data performance alone. Injection-based contamination causes the greatest degradation, particularly for local-density and distance-based detectors, whereas feature-noise contamination has a comparatively limited effect. PCA, SVM, HBOS, and IForest remain relatively stable, while the tuned neural detectors demonstrate intermediate robustness. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of training-data integrity in ML-enabled ICS monitoring, subject to the evaluated dataset, models, and threat assumptions.
Multilingual translation benchmarks are typically sourced in English and translated into other languages, treating language pairs as the unit of evaluation---a design that is prone to contamination over time and overlooks locale and cultural considerations. We therefore advocate for source-contrastive evaluation and instantiate it with Cultivar, a localised subset of FLORES, which enables locale-specific translation evaluation. When paired with unlocalised counterparts, performance discrepancy allows the probing of data contamination and localisation robustness. We benchmark 32 open-weight models and find that MT-specialised models are less robust, a few models potentially overfit FLORES, and models tend to translate US content better than that of other locales, regardless of language.
The standard check for contamination in LLM backtests is simple: compare scores before and after the training cutoff. We show this check is uninformative. Four flagship models fail it on questions they cannot have memorized: every scored question resolved after their cutoffs. The reason is structural. Models legitimately know more about times near their cutoff, so recency mimics leakage, and we prove no passive backtest can separate the two from genuine skill. Measurement, not just detection, requires information from outside the backtest. We supply it in two forms. A known cutoff identifies leakage at the boundary; a matched clean control identifies it globally and yields a leakage-adjusted score. We also derive where leakage hides: it concentrates on outcomes that surprised the crowd and were well covered in training, and partial memorization is disproportionately rewarded. We validate the estimators against ground truth by planting leakage in twin models, where they recover the injected dose and return null on clean questions. Deployed on frontier models, they detect one cutoff-localized signature and, at the audit's power floor, clear five models whose apparent advantages were recency alone. Backtests need not be discarded; they need one defensible reference.
In this paper, we push the boundary of LLM reasoning by testing them in a Chinese language game, xiehouyu, with novel xiehouyu created by linguists that had not existed before to avoid data contamination. We use multiple-choice questions (MCQ), free-form explanation generation, and new xiehouyu creation to evaluate LLMs' ability to understand and create xiehouyu. In MCQ, we use the delta of accuracy ($Δ_{acc}$) between existing but low-frequency xiehouyu and novel ones as an index for memorization. $Δ_{acc}$ for native speakers is very low, suggesting similar processing mechanisms. However, we found that frontier Chinese models have on average a $Δ_{acc}$ of 23.6\%, while English-centric models tested have a mean $Δ_{acc}$ of 5.1\%, suggesting that frontier Chinese models are likely trained with much larger Chinese data, thus memorizing more low-frequency xiehouyu. For novel xiehouyu, Gemini 3.1 Pro demonstrated remarkable ability with acc 92.6, which is 24\% higher than human accuracy. In xiehouyu creation, those created by LLMs receive much worse ratings than those by humans. These results suggest that claims about the reasoning abilities of LLMs may need careful re-examination considering the data contamination issue, and that LLMs' creativity in language-related tasks may still be behind human experts, at least in Chinese xiehouyu.
Mined code corpora are abundant but uncontrolled: a snippet's semantics, surface "messiness," and difficulty are whatever the wild contained; there is no known-optimal reference to grade against; and any public sample may already sit in a model's training set. We present Spaghetti Architect, a tool that mints code datasets with the control such corpora lack. An anti-optimization transpiler maps a clean, language-agnostic JSON intermediate representation to deliberately redundant, fully-flattened programs in five languages (Python, JavaScript, Go, Java, C++); every program is compiled, run, and checked against a reference oracle, so each instance is correct by construction. The clean IR is a known-optimal reference, messiness is dialed by strictly-nested anti-pattern profiles, each instance is labelled along two orthogonal difficulty axes, intrinsic (problem size) and incidental (presentation at fixed semantics), and contamination is resisted by minting fresh variants from a private held-out seed. We give construct-validity evidence that the quality order moves established complexity and readability metrics, and report baselines on a four-model open ladder: exact match rises with scale, and the intrinsic knob collapses arithmetic-aggregation accuracy of even the strongest model to zero. Further, development-set scores equal freshly re-minted held-out counterparts within $|Δ|\le 0.012$ (comprehension) and $\le 0.011$ (refactoring); on identical programs, refactoring equivalence ($0.73 \rightarrow 0.99$) is scale-invariant while output prediction collapses; and ablating the generator's self-annotations shows they inflate the weakest model an order of magnitude more than the strongest ($-0.173$ vs $-0.017$): the annotated ladder resolves one of three adjacent pairs where the unannotated resolves all three. Open source (MIT), dependency-free, archived under a persistent DOI.
Yuanzhi Liu, Shousheng Zhao, Bo Zhou +2cs.CV cs.AI
Evaluation benchmarks are essential for assessing vision-language models (VLMs), but most multimodal benchmarks are static, making them vulnerable to temporal staleness, data contamination, and costly maintenance. We present MMBench-Live, a continuously evolving multimodal benchmark built by a multi-agent-driven automated pipeline. Our framework treats benchmark evolution as task-guided dataset construction, integrating structured benchmark specification, feedback-controlled real-time data acquisition, and verifiable QA generation with executable reasoning. To maintain cross-version comparability, we introduce a distribution-consistent update strategy that extracts task-related visual patterns from the original benchmark to guide data collection and filtering. Instantiated from MMBench, MMBench-Live contains 5.9K newly generated evaluation instances with a high answer correctness rate, while each update costs about USD 30 and takes 1-2 hours. Extensive evaluations show that MMBench-Live preserves stable model rankings, maintains semantic alignment with the original benchmark, and exhibits weaker contamination-related memorization signals, suggesting a practical and scalable paradigm for sustainable multimodal benchmark evolution. The project is available at https://github.com/PRIS-CV/MMBench-Live.
While reinforcement learning (RL) significantly enhances LLM reasoning, its efficacy is severely undermined by Pre-RL data overlap, where RL datasets overlap with pretraining or SFT corpora, causing models to exploit shortcuts by memorizing correct answers and fabricating post-hoc reasoning. To address this, we introduce HIPPO, a novel RL framework that integrates hint-injected aggregation with a tailored pairwise reward model. By utilizing hint injection to deliberately trigger overlap-induced behaviors, the resulting traces naturally serve as explicit anchors for pairwise comparison. This provides highly discriminable preference signals, enabling a lightweight judge model to reliably distinguish genuine reasoning deduction from shortcut-driven rationalization, while the pairwise formulation ensures stable and robust optimization compared to standard PRMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HIPPO yields substantial improvements over standard baselines and generalizes effectively to out-of-distribution general tasks, showing it extracts authentic, transferable reasoning skills rather than superficial shortcut patterns.
Benchmark-based evaluation is the dominant paradigm for assessing large language model (LLM) capabilities, yet data contamination inflates reported performance and undermines fair comparison. Existing decontamination methods are evaluated solely through aggregate accuracy, which can obscure substantial differences in per-sample model behaviour, and many require access to an uncontaminated model. In this paper, we propose a sample-level evaluation framework for decontamination that complements accuracy-based assessment with distributional distance metrics, measuring how closely a decontaminated model recovers the output distribution of an uncontaminated model on each sample. Building on this framework, we introduce Uncertainty-Based Decontamination (UBD), a family of methods that leverage deep ensembles of the contaminated model to estimate per-sample memorization without requiring a uncontaminated model or knowledge of which samples are contaminated. UBD estimates a per-sample correction scalar from ensemble uncertainty, which is used to construct a debiased target distribution that suppresses the inflated probability mass on correct answers induced by contamination. This target is then used either as a post-hoc output correction (debiasing) or as a soft training signal for parameter update (unlearning). Experiments on MMLU-Pro and MATH-MCQA across multiple LLM backbones demonstrate that UBD produces per-sample output distributions substantially closer to those of an uncontaminated model than paraphrasing or choice-permutation baselines, while preserving model performance on uncontaminated data.
We show that replacing the standard MSE denoising loss in diffusion models with a nonlinear transformation induced by an f-divergence yields a simple robust training surrogate that empirically improves performance under data contamination, with small additional computational overhead. The theoretical foundation rests on a local divergence construction: under the Gaussian reverse-kernel structure of DDPM, each per-step likelihood ratio follows a lognormal distribution parameterized by a scalar mismatch, so the conditional f-divergence at each step reduces to a one-dimensional function of the denoising error. Summing these local divergences yields a training objective that unifies diffusion training as divergence induced weighted denoising, where the derivative of the induced divergence acts as a residual-space influence weight that controls the contribution of each sample. Bounded-influence divergences (Hellinger, negative exponential) suppress large error samples, with Hellinger yielding an explicit exponential weight, connecting the framework to robust M-estimation. Empirically, on CIFAR-10 under 30% contamination, NED reduces FID from 93.0 (KL) to 77.5, while also outperforming standard robust losses such as Huber and clipped MSE.
Whether LLMs scoring well on vulnerability benchmarks genuinely reason about security or merely pattern-match on contaminated data remains unresolved. We present CWE-Trace, a framework for LLM vulnerability detection built from 834 manually curated Linux kernel samples spanning 74 CWEs. The framework enforces a strict temporal split (pre-2025 historical set / post-cutoff leakage-free set), preserves context-aware vulnerable--patched pairs, and introduces two diagnostic metrics: the Directional Failure Index (DFI) and Hierarchical Distance and Direction (HDD). We evaluate eight vanilla LLMs and 15 LoRA fine-tuned variants across non-targeted detection, targeted detection, and CWE classification. Our analysis yields two key results. First, data contamination provides no measurable advantage. Function-level analysis shows that 84% of nominally contaminated samples carry no usable memorization signal: vulnerable functions are absent or cross-mapped across datasets, and ~31% of contaminated samples carry CWE misclassification. Second, backbone directional priors dominate fine-tuning. Models exhibit stable, systematic failure modes (DFI ranging from -85.5 to +94.8 pp) that persist from historical to post-cutoff data and resist correction. Fine-tuning shifts the output threshold without changing the decision policy. This is calibration without comprehension: output distributions adapt to training data while the underlying security reasoning remains absent. The weakest backbone at binary detection (DeepSeek-R1) gains the most in coarse CWE classification, revealing that detection and understanding are decoupled capabilities. The best detection score reaches only 52.1% (+2.1 pp above chance); exact CWE ranking remains below 1.3% Top-1 accuracy, confirming that current LLMs lack reliable security reasoning for systems software, regardless of fine-tuning strategy.
Static visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks age quickly: Once the items leak into training corpora, scores can reflect memorization rather than genuine visual ability, thus obscuring real progress. Rebuilding high-quality benchmarks such as V*Bench requires substantial human annotation, yet each static release can quickly become another leaked artifact. We propose ReKey, a live benchmark protocol that randomly regenerates the answer-bearing local detail, or visual key, in real images at evaluation time. Using human-validated edit slots, ReKey samples fresh instances with new answers, construction-grounded labels, and controlled visual-search difficulty. On V*Bench, the ReKey regenerated benchmark reveals a sharp score jump across eight frontier vision-language models (VLMs): The original items score 9.5--18.8 percentage points higher than the regenerated variants. By making the visual key renewable, ReKey keeps evaluation fresh as models and training data evolve.
Search Agents -- large language models augmented with search tools -- have intensified the need for future-proof evaluation benchmarks. Existing benchmarks such as BrowseComp rely on static knowledge, making them vulnerable to test-set contamination and parametric memorization. Consequently, models can achieve high scores through fact recall rather than genuine retrieval, obscuring true browsing competence via reasoning shortcuts. In this paper, we introduce EvoBrowseComp, an evolving benchmark of 400 English and 400 Chinese contamination-free complex questions synthesized via live-web traversal. To collect these questions, we design a three-agent collaborative framework: (1) a QA synthesis agent that retrieves fresh knowledge from the live web to synthesize QA pairs; (2) an information filtering agent that filters retrieved knowledge in terms of credibility and popularity to block parametric shortcuts; and (3) a high-level guidance agent that formalizes questions into reasoning graphs to reduce logical redundancy and shortcuts in synthesized QA pairs. Because the framework supports fully automated synthesis, EvoBrowseComp can be regularly updated to prevent data contamination and maintain temporal freshness. Extensive experiments confirm its great difficulty, requiring broad horizontal search. It establishes a scalable paradigm for auto-updatable, high-difficulty benchmarking that keeps pace with both evolving world knowledge and advancing agent capabilities.
Rishit Dagli, Abir Harrasse, Luke Zhang +4cs.LG cs.CL
Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace a model's predictions back to its training data. The gold standard for TDA relies on causal interventions, observing how a model changes when data is added or removed, but repeated retraining is computationally challenging for Large Language Models (LLMs). Consequently, most approaches approximate this effect in the parameter space using gradients. However, tracking gradients across billions of parameters is not only prohibitively expensive but relies on local approximations. In this work, we propose a shift: rather than estimating parameter changes, we model the functional effect of training data in the activation space. We introduce STRIDE (Steering-based Training Data Influence Decomposition), a framework that formulates TDA as a sparse recovery problem in the spirit of compressive sensing. STRIDE learns lightweight "steering operators" that mimic the behavioral shift caused by training on data subsets. By measuring how these operators perturb test predictions, we recover individual training example influences via sparse linear decomposition. STRIDE achieves state-of-the-art for LLM pre-training attribution while being an order of magnitude ($13\times$) faster than previous art. We further validate its practical utility through downstream applications including data selection, data contamination, and qualitative analysis.
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning abilities across a wide range of tasks, but data contamination undermines the objective evaluation of these capabilities. This problem is further exacerbated by malicious model publishers who use evasive, or indirect, contamination strategies, such as paraphrasing benchmark data to evade existing detection methods and artificially boost leaderboard performance. Current approaches struggle to reliably detect such stealthy contamination. In this work, we uncover a critical phenomenon: a model's generated reasoning steps actively mask its underlying memorization. Inspired by this, we propose the Zero-CoT Probe (ZCP), a novel black-box detection method that deliberately truncates the entire Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process to expose latent shortcut mappings. To further isolate memorization from the model's intrinsic problem-solving capabilities, ZCP compares the model's zero-CoT performance on the original benchmark against an isomorphically perturbed reference dataset. Furthermore, we introduce Contamination Confidence, a metric that quantifies both the likelihood and severity of contamination, moving beyond simple binary classifications. Extensive experiments on both previously identified contaminated models and specially fine-tuned contaminated models demonstrate that ZCP robustly detects both direct and evasive data contamination. The code for ZCP is accessible at https://github.com/Yifan-Lan/zero-cot-probe.