Structured pruning uses surrogate objectives because direct task evaluation over every feasible mask is too expensive. Most evaluations report average surrogate error or rank correlation on broadly sampled masks. These summaries do not directly test the mask chosen by the surrogate. We introduce PruneShift, an evaluation framework that separates broad predictive fidelity, fidelity near selector outputs, and the quality of the selected pruning decision. We first prove that Spearman and Kendall agreement can approach one while normalized selection regret remains maximal. We then derive sufficient conditions based on uniform error, selector suboptimality, decision margin, density ratio, and comparison mass. The analysis also yields a finite pool certificate with an explicit excess cost bound. Four studies test different links in this argument. External TextbookQA confirmation is heterogeneous: 7 of 20 simultaneous intervals favor the surrogate-selected mask, 6 favor its fixed comparator, and 7 cross zero. On a fixed Natural Questions pool, strict improvement holds in one of four settings. A controlled QQP experiment supports the proposed coverage mechanism in all 16 prespecified endpoints, although the sufficient bounds are conservative. Finally, a restricted OSSCAR reconstruction study on OPT-125M shows better local than broad fidelity in 68 of 75 primary endpoints. Independent fixed-mask confirmation is inconclusive in 24 of 25 endpoints and favors the comparator in one. These results show why predictive fit, decision reliability, and pruning method quality require separate evidence.
Quantization is known to hurt below four bits, but nobody can say which of a model's decisions will change at a given bit-width. This matters most where a model acts rather than answers: a compressed agent stops calling its tools and, one bit lower, loses roughly half its safety refusals, while benchmark scores barely move. Prior work assumes the added noise has a roughly fixed size, which would make confident decisions safe. We measure the decision instead: the margin, the picked option's score minus its best alternative's, tracked before and after quantization across 16 models from 8 families under round-to-nearest, seven under AWQ, two under GPTQ and one under GGUF, at 8 down to 2 bits. The damage is proportional, not fixed in size: the margin is multiplied by a factor that collapses with bit-width (median 0.86 at 4 bits, 0.33 at 3, 0.00 at 2), which we call margin shrinkage. Contraction removes the protection a large margin affords; the model's own biases pick the direction: at 3 bits the decision to call a tool collapses toward inaction while the choice of which tool is untouched. No additive account, including one whose noise grows with the margin, wins a single damaged whether-to-call or safety cell (378 of 378). Given a condition's own constants the relation predicts held-out flip rates to a median 1.7 points, calibrated per decision (error 0.004 over 161,744 predictions), no flip used in the fit. Borrowed constants are wrong by 18-33 points at 3 bits, so the paired margin set has to be measured per model and bit-width: it locates breaking decisions without replacing measurement. At 4 bits the measurement is anchored to behaviour (the most likely token over the whole vocabulary is one of the item's two options in 85% of tool items); we treat the 2-bit floor as where the instrument stops measuring. No label-free repair we tested recovers more than one more bit does.