Differentiating Through Dual Prices: End-to-End Policy Learning Under Capacity Constraints

Many social services assign scarce resources, such as housing assistance or hospital interventions, to people who arrive one at a time: each arrival must receive a decision immediately, and the long-run usage of every resource must stay within its capacity. We study how to learn such an assignment policy from logged observational data. The standard pipeline is decision-blind: fit one outcome model per arm by regression, price each capacitated resource from the fitted models, and assign each arrival the arm whose predicted outcome minus price is largest. We instead train the outcome models end-to-end, differentiating an off-policy estimate of the deployed policy's value through the dual prices themselves. We study two formulations: an exact nonconvex one, and a convex relaxation whose optimum always satisfies the capacity constraints in expectation and which is suboptimal by at most a term linear in the smoothing temperature and logarithmic in the number of arms. Every method is evaluated in a queueing simulation with resources replenished at their capacity rates. Across six datasets, the two end-to-end variants take the top slots on a deployment-adjusted value index at every delay cost, including zero; when capacities are binding, decision-blind baselines frequently violate them and incur much longer queueing delays. On the largest dataset, a hospital cohort of seventy thousand patients, end-to-end training also achieves significantly higher policy value, a margin that survives a capacity-matched neural baseline. Flexible decision-blind regression remains the stronger pure predictor where ground truth is measurable; end-to-end training is best suited to settings where resources are genuinely scarce and feasibility matters.

Scores Are Not Decisions: Cost-Aware Stopping for Tool Acquisition in LLM Agents

As LLM agents increasingly depend on diverse external services such as search engines, databases, and connectors, agent harnesses face a fundamental tool-selection challenge: acquiring too few tools leaves the task under-informed, while too many adds cost, context load, and privacy exposure. Routers and retrievers can rank candidate tools by relevance, but a ranking alone does not determine how many are worth selecting. Existing approaches leave acquisition under heterogeneous costs unaddressed. We formulate this decision as cost-aware marginal decision-focused stopping (CAM-DF) over ranked tool prefixes, with CAM-DF-lite as a compact interpretable variant. We train directly on the offline gap between stopping now and the best continuation: its sign labels the decision, its magnitude weights each error by the payoff at stake. We prove this objective is Bayes-aligned with the stopping target and that score-only rules are suboptimal under heterogeneous costs. We evaluate on 1,343 tasks across five tool-use domains. On $τ$-bench Retail, CAM-DF attains the highest payoff among deployable methods, with gains over a predict-then-threshold baseline across all five ranking sources and two cost regimes. Our approach is state-of-the-art under heterogeneous costs and high cost pressure, with larger gains under weaker rankings. In live execution, CAM-DF exposes the agent to 37\% fewer tools than full access while maintaining comparable task success. The CAM-DF family is a lightweight pre-execution plugin that turns existing tool rankings into lower-cost acquisition decisions without fine-tuning the underlying LLM.

Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch

The increasing uncertainty from flexible demand and renewable generation has made distributionally robust optimization (DRO) an important tool for robust power system dispatch. DRO relies on forecast scenarios to construct ambiguity sets, but conventional scenario generation pipelines are often trained in an accuracy-oriented manner and may neglect spatial correlations among uncertainties. This mismatch can produce ambiguity sets that are statistically plausible but suboptimal for downstream operation. This work proposes a decision-focused generative framework for correlated scenario generation in DRO-based dispatch. Instead of training generative models solely to fit the historical uncertainty distribution, the proposed framework optimizes generated scenarios according to their induced downstream operational cost. The proposed framework is tailored to mainstream generative models, including variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models, while capturing the joint distribution of uncertainties across buses. To improve computational tractability, we further develop a differentiable scenario selector that selects decision-relevant scenarios from a generated pool and can be trained within the same decision-focused pipeline. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively reduces 0.80%-2.02% operational cost across different generative models compared to accuracy-oriented methods.

The Decision Geometry of Covariance Estimation for the Global Minimum-Variance Portfolio under Heavy Tails

The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.

A Solver-Free Training Method for Predict-then-Optimize

We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task. Directly minimizing the empirical decision regret is intractable for linear programming and combinatorial optimization since the decision mapping is piecewise constant, and the gradients are zero almost everywhere. While existing methods address this by smoothing the differentiation process, they suffer from scalability issues, since a computationally expensive solver call is required for every gradient evaluation. To address this, we propose a decision-focused learning pipeline based on a measure transformation principle, which yields a new surrogate loss that is completely optimization-solver-free during training. We establish theoretical guarantees, including Fisher consistency and excess risk bounds. Empirically, our method achieves decision quality competitive with state-of-the-art methods while reducing training time by orders of magnitude.

Scaling Decision-Focused Learning to Large Problems with Lagrangian Decomposition

Decision-focused learning has shown great promise for addressing predict-then-optimize problems, particularly in the presence of under-specified models. However, its practical deployment is often hindered by high computational costs and limited scalability, as it requires solving a constrained optimization problem for each training instance at every iteration. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that incorporates Lagrangian decomposition into the decision-focused learning paradigm. Specifically, we introduce a new surrogate objective along with two loss functions for evaluating and training the underlying prediction model. We further propose two variants of our approach, which offer different trade-offs between computational efficiency and solution quality. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated with standard decision-focused learning methods, including Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO+) and Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). Through experiments on two standard benchmarks, the multi-dimensional knapsack problem and quadratic portfolio optimization, we demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive performance while remaining amenable to parallelization. In particular, it consistently outperforms traditional decision-focused learning methods on large-scale instances, involving up to eight times more variables than those typically considered in related work. The implementation is available at https://github.com/corail-research/DFL-LD.

Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making. However, a major misalignment persists: predictive models are typically optimized in terms of standard statistical metrics in isolation from the algorithmic tasks they inform. We highlight this incongruity in the high-stakes domain of organ allocation by demonstrating that any algorithm relying on (even highly accurate) survival predictors optimized for standard metrics -- such as the Concordance index (C-index) -- can yield arbitrarily poor outcomes when used for allocation, failing to guarantee utility better than a uniform random selection. To bridge the gap between survival analysis and policy optimization, we introduce a decision-focused learning approach based on optimizing normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG), a mainstay metric in information retrieval. We establish the utility of NDCG in survival analysis by proving that it translates to guarantees on the performance of allocation. Empirically, we propose a bootstrapping approach to optimize the NDCG of existing survival models. Unlike prior work, we also address the challenge of right censorship when evaluating ranking. On historical heart transplant data from the US, our method dramatically boosts the NDCG of baseline models by 50-100%, which translates to tens of thousands of additional life years gained annually when deployed for transplant allocation. We anticipate that our framework will find broader applications in decision making with predictions.