Reza Khanmohammadi, Simerjot Kaur, Charese H. Smiley +2cs.CL
LVLMs are increasingly used to read financial charts, tables, and documents, where a single misread figure can move a decision and the most authoritative-looking answer is sometimes one the model produced without reading the exhibit. The operational question is therefore trust, not accuracy: which answers can be acted on, and which escalated to a reviewer. We evaluate seven confidence estimators, three inference-only and four trained internal probes, across five open-weight LVLMs and four conditions from three financial visual question-answering benchmarks, one bilingual; every probe is trained only on natural images and applied to finance without adaptation, so the results measure out-of-distribution transfer. Three findings hold. First, the scarce property is calibration, not ranking: the inference baselines rank correct above incorrect answers competitively but are badly overconfident, calibration error far above what a threshold can tolerate, and only the trained probes produce a thresholdable score. Second, reliability is structured rather than global, along two axes a practitioner can read directly: the best estimator shifts with both model and task, none leading more than eight of twenty (model, condition) cells, and a controlled bilingual contrast exposes an apparent language robustness as a composition artifact that dissolves once models are read one at a time. Third, cast as deferral under an error budget, how much can be safely automated is set first by the model's competence and only narrowed by its confidence, so deferral clears a real share of the easiest condition and almost none of the hardest, near zero at a strict 5% budget. Two trained probes carry the calibration a deferral policy needs, and among them only the grounding-aware one lowers its confidence on answers a model gives without using the figure, separating detected non-grounding from a fluent guess.
Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human. We study whether verbalized confidence can support risk-controlled deferral, evaluating eleven instruction-tuned models from three families, 0.5B to 14B parameters, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA with 25,168 local predictions. Three theoretical results delimit what calibration can provide: strictly monotone calibration preserves the risk-coverage frontier and error-detection AUROC; temperature scaling cannot calibrate models whose confidence stays above one half while accuracy falls below it; and a Clopper-Pearson procedure converts a 200-question calibration set into a finite-sample risk certificate under an i.i.d. deployment assumption. Empirically, eight of 22 model-task pairs hit the temperature-scaling infeasibility floor within one percentage point of the predicted bound. Platt scaling reduces ECE to as low as 0.02, yet certified autonomy at a 20% risk budget is granted to only three model-task pairs and to none at 10%. We also identify and repair an answer-ordering artifact in the multiple-choice form of TruthfulQA. Calibration gives confidence semantics; certified deferral determines when small models are safe to use.
Agentic systems have widened the gap between producing candidate outputs and reviewing them. This paper asks a practical architectural question: should domain specialization be built into an evaluator's weights, or into the rule that decides when its judgment can be trusted? We study 99,952 public, rubric-conditioned examples. Supplying the correct rubric improves locked-test accuracy by 2.11 points over a response-only control; replacing it with an unrelated rubric costs 2.66 points. Dividing the same training corpus among eight criterion-family LoRA judges, however, loses 10.05 points and cuts audited coverage at a 5% risk target from 24.44% to 5.43%. Matching the bank's stored capacity with one rank-64 adapter does not reproduce this loss. Nor is the result explained by learning rate or optimizer steps. Initializing the family adapters from a shared, trained judge recovers test accuracy to 76.85%, 19.94 points above scratch training at the same learning rate (95% interval 18.88-21.02). The result changes when specialization governs deferral rather than judgment. On RewardBench 2, learned correctness heads route examples through a 0.6B-4B-8B cascade without changing any reward score. Across 20 locked repartitions, the cascade attains 89.40% accuracy, compared with 84.75% for 8B alone, at 0.415 normalized parameter compute. Every run passes an exact one-sided 95% risk audit; margin-based rules remain near 84.8% accuracy while using at least 0.94 compute. These results suggest a qualified design rule: share the learning of judgment until there is enough data to justify a split, and place domain-specific adaptation in an audited release boundary.
LLM agents following the ReAct paradigm are promising enablers of complex multi-step tasks, including multi-hop question answering, code generation, and control of physical AI systems. Yet, when deployed at the edge, they must tightly manage their reasoning budget while remaining reliable and deferring to a cloud-side model only when local uncertainty is too high to act safely. We propose Think Short, Defer Smart (TSDS), a framework that synergistically integrates a lightweight convergence probe, which halts on-device reasoning once the intended action has stabilized, with a perplexity-based deferral rule that escalates uncertain actions to a cloud-side model. Both mechanisms are jointly calibrated on end-to-end episode trajectories via a multi-objective Learn-Then-Test (LTT) procedure, providing simultaneous finite-sample guarantees on expected episode reward and cloud-call rate. We evaluate TSDS on four ReAct benchmarks spanning arithmetic reasoning (GSM8K), multi-hop question answering (HotpotQA), code generation (MBPP), and multi-step embodied planning (household robot), and compare against thought-calibration-only and calibrated-deferral-only standalone baselines. TSDS reduces per-episode thinking compute by 43%-65% over deferral-only baselines across HotpotQA, MBPP, and the household robot task, while maintaining certified reward and cloud-call rate guarantees.
Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents, but reliable agentic behavior requires more than next-token prediction. At inference time, it is preferred that an agent can decide whether to proceed with its current reasoning, defer to a stronger model, request additional information, invoke external tools, or abstain under the given setup. Existing approaches address these decisions through prompt-level routing, external orchestration, or task-specific fine-tuning, which primarily rely on input-side signals, and are often costly and difficult to maintain as model backbones evolve. We ask whether such control decisions can be inferred directly from a model's latent generation process. We introduce Multi-Head Latent Control, a lightweight layer that reads hidden-state trajectories from a frozen LLM or VLM to produce deployment-time control signals. A Capability Head predicts whether the current model can solve the instance or should defer to a stronger collaborator, while a Resolution Head predicts appropriate resolution decision Clarification, Tool Use, Abstention, or Direct Answering. Both heads are trained only on latent traces from the same frozen LLM backbone, enabling post hoc adaptation without modifying the model. Across language and vision-language settings, Multi-Head Latent Control consistently improves the quality-cost tradeoff of multi-model systems, enabling early handoff from partial generations and more accurate intervention decisions. In routed execution (small + large model), it reduces large-model usage by up to 90.7 percent on AndroidWorld and 27-53 percent on average across benchmarks, while retaining most of large-model performance. Additionally, the learned control signals improve tool-use decision quality, yielding up to +158 percent relative score gain and 65.5 percent fewer missed-required tool calls.
Deep networks now subtype brain tumors on MRI about as well as specialist readers, yet accuracy is not what keeps them out of the clinic. What matters at the point of care is whether a model's confidence can be trusted to flag the cases it is likely to misclassify and defer them to a human. Deterministic estimates cannot: an auxiliary confidence head trained alongside the classifier collapses to a near-constant output that says nothing about correctness. This study proposes an uncertainty-first pipeline for four-class brain tumor MRI (glioma, meningioma, pituitary, no tumor) that reads predictive uncertainty from Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout over T = 20 passes and turns the resulting entropy into an explicit rule for deferring uncertain cases to a radiologist. We partitioned 7,200 images by perceptual-hash cluster, closing the near-duplicate leakage that inflates accuracy under naive splitting, and evaluated the pipeline on ViT-B/16 and ResNet-50 across five seeds along three axes: discrimination, calibration, and selective prediction. Both discriminate strongly (macro-AUC 0.994; accuracy 0.962 and 0.964), and no seed separates them (0 of 5 significant, p < 0.05), so the result is driven by the uncertainty pipeline, not the network. A single temperature scalar pulls the deterministic softmax into tight calibration (expected calibration error 0.016-0.020), and deferring the most uncertain 5% of cases lifts accuracy on the rest to about 0.98 on both (area under the risk-coverage curve 0.010-0.011). MC-Dropout uncertainty here is thus calibrated, non-collapsing, and directly actionable through a concrete deferral rule, providing an architecture-agnostic basis for calibrated, defer-to-human brain tumor MRI triage under internal validation.
Specialist epilepsy expertise is scarce in resource-constrained settings, making LLM-based decision support attractive for frontline clinicians managing longitudinal treatment. Such systems must adapt to local prescribing practice and know when to defer. We study this problem in Ugandan pediatric epilepsy care, predicting anti-seizure medication regimens from longitudinal unstructured clinic notes. Standard prompting achieves non-trivial agreement with physician prescriptions, but neurologist review shows that many errors reflect distribution-miscalibrated prescribing defaults rather than failures to parse the local record. We introduce MANANA, a non-parametric prompt-learning framework that learns local prescribing guidance from a small patient-level training set. MANANA converts observed prescription errors into auditable prompt memories, instantiated in single-agent and multi-agent variants, and improves over classical ML models, direct LLM prompting, and prompt-optimization baselines across two independently collected Ugandan cohorts. We further propose Bayesian prompt averaging, which converts the learned prompt trajectory into prescription likelihoods and an uncertainty-based deferral signal. On the independently collected held-out cohort, this improves visit-level top-3 prescription accuracy by 4-8 percentage points over prompt-optimization baselines and enables selective prediction: the system can auto-handle the most confident half of cases at 95% precision, or the most confident quarter at 99% precision, while deferring lower-confidence cases for specialist review.
Recent work has shown that well-optimized individual decision trees can match complex black box models in some settings, primarily in noisy domains. For the remaining settings, however, complex ensembled compositions of trees often achieve higher accuracy at the cost of interpretability, leaving practitioners with difficult modeling decisions along an accuracy-interpretability tradeoff. Ideally, we would like to classify as much of the data as possible with one or a small number of trees, achieving interpretability for most samples while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We introduce Multistage Defer Trees: a sequence of sparse decision trees that each make predictions for most samples, while deferring a small proportion to the next tree in the sequence or, ultimately, to a black box. We demonstrate that we can train this model class to match the performance of complex tree-based ensembles while routing most samples through only one or a small number of sparse decision trees. We discuss a range of techniques for training these models while maintaining simplicity. Our method expands the accuracy--interpretability frontier in settings where single-tree methods remain insufficient, demonstrating that even when complex models are necessary, they need not be fully opaque.
Learning to Defer (L2D) enables a model to predict autonomously or defer to an expert, but prior work largely assumes flat label spaces. We study the first L2D setting with hierarchical multi-label decisions, motivated by medical-imaging workflows in which findings are organised by clinical taxonomies. In this setting, deferral is a delegation action rather than a label assignment, so treating it as an independent per-label decision can produce deferral incoherence, including taxonomic contradictions, delegation violations, and deferrals of labels already implied by the model's own assertions. We formalise coherent hierarchical deferral under a Selective-Exclusion handoff contract, characterise the Bayes-optimal coherent deferral rule, and show that even nodewise Bayes L2D can be action-incoherent. We then propose two remedies: exact coherent projection, a dynamic-programming decoder over the coherent action set, and Taxonomic Belief Propagation (TBP) with Recursive Policy Optimisation (RPO), a contract-aware joint action model trained through the same recursion used at inference. Across real-reader and controlled-expert medical-imaging benchmarks, naive binary-relevance L2D exhibits non-trivial incoherence. Projection removes it exactly, and fast TBP+RPO drives incoherence near zero while retaining strong utility.