Aphanta: Diagnosing Task-Aligned Image-Edited Intermediates for Multimodal Reasoning

Explicit visual intermediates can help multimodal large language models (MLLMs) externalize spatial evidence and updated visual states, but their utility depends on whether an image editor can faithfully realize the required transformation. We introduce \textbf{Aphanta}, an automated task-discovery and closed-loop diagnostic framework for the MLLM -> image editor -> MLLM pipeline. Aphanta evaluates three conditions---direct reasoning, reasoning with an editor-generated intermediate, and reasoning with an idealized reference intermediate---to separate potential visual headroom from the practical utility of current editors. Across 20 candidate tasks and multiple editor--MLLM combinations, we find that utility is strongly task-conditioned. Gains concentrate in visual cue injection, grounding, and counterfactual state realization, whereas intermediates requiring symbol-sensitive construction or structural extrapolation are substantially less reliable. On the selected positive-task subset, our consolidated Qwen pipeline improves the mean task score from 0.343 to 0.445 ($+10.2$ points; $+29.7\%$ relative), while the full study also retains filtered and unsuccessful tasks to expose the boundary. These results position image editing as a specialized visual workspace rather than a universal reasoning mechanism, and establish Aphanta as a reusable protocol for measuring task--representation alignment, editor realization, and downstream pipeline utility.

MissDiag: Diagnostic Evaluation of Incomplete-Knowledge Robustness in KGQA and KG-RAG

Knowledge graph question answering (KGQA) and knowledge-graph-based retrieval-augmented generation (KG-RAG) aim to ground answers in explicit graph evidence, but real-world knowledge graphs are often sparse, outdated, and incomplete. Existing robustness evaluations usually report aggregate changes in answer quality after evidence is removed or perturbed, which measures sensitivity to incomplete support but leaves the source of degradation under-specified: the same score change can conflate the type of missing evidence, the response of the evaluated system, and the sensitivity of the answer-matching protocol. To address this gap, we propose \textbf{MissDiag}, a diagnostic evaluation framework for incomplete-knowledge robustness in KGQA and KG-RAG. MissDiag keeps the question and gold answer fixed while applying structurally typed missingness interventions to benchmark-provided support graphs, enabling paired comparisons that decompose robustness changes by evidence type, system response, and evaluation protocol rather than reducing them to a single aggregate score drop. Experiments across multiple system families show that incomplete-knowledge robustness is better understood as a typed degradation phenomenon than as a uniform property: answer-adjacent evidence loss produces the largest observed degradation, source-context removal is often neutral and can be beneficial, and semantic answer matching changes absolute scores while preserving the main typed degradation patterns. By transforming aggregate robustness measurement into typed diagnostic attribution, MissDiag provides a more interpretable basis for comparing, diagnosing, and stress-testing KGQA and KG-RAG systems under incomplete knowledge.

ChartProbe: A Diagnostic Study on Visual Reasoning through Perception, Grounding, and Simple Reasoning

Vision-language models (VLMs) remain unreliable on chart questions that require reasoning over visual quantities, and this weakness is usually attributed to a reasoning deficit and addressed with more reasoning supervision. We ask whether the difficulty lies in reasoning itself, or in the simpler skills that reasoning operates on: reading the plotted elements (\emph{perception}), locating them and binding them to their labels (\emph{grounding}), and performing single-step computations such as ranking, totals, and differences (\emph{simple reasoning}). We introduce \textbf{ChartProbe}, a diagnostic framework whose probes are generated directly from the code that renders each chart, so every gold answer is exact by construction, needs no human annotation, and attributes each failure to a single skill. ChartProbe enables an intervention prior work does not attempt: instead of synthesizing complex-reasoning data, we withhold complex questions and reasoning traces entirely, fine-tune on one simple skill at a time, and measure transfer to held-out complex-reasoning questions. Across three open-weight VLMs, supervising the simpler skills alone produces large gains on complex-reasoning questions the model never trained on: where these skills are weak and the model can be taught to read the image, training them recovers much of complex reasoning at no reasoning-data cost. The gains hold across three out-of-distribution settings: an unseen chart type (pie charts), a human-written benchmark disjoint from our images and templates (ChartQA), and a non-chart visual domain (CLEVR). Complex visual reasoning can therefore improve without complex-reasoning supervision.

Controlled Memory Interference in Continual LLM Agents

Long-term memory enables AI agents to maintain continuity across sessions, personalize behavior, and evolve through accumulated experience. Yet memory evolution is not simply a process of storing more information: new experiences may reinforce, revise, or interfere with existing memory states. Existing systems mainly emphasize memory construction and relevance-based retrieval, but several memories may remain simultaneously relevant while differing in state, temporal validity, or authority. We introduce Controlled Memory Interference (CMI), a controlled diagnostic and data-generation framework for studying how agent memory evolves under different memory relationships. Across controlled memory evolution, benign accumulation has limited effects, whereas relationship-specific interference sharply suppresses update plasticity with little stability gain, either by blocking target-memory exposure or by disrupting its downstream use. Lexical and Dense retrieval exhibit distinct interference pathways, while poisoning is more sensitive to update-authority cues than to recency alone. Beyond diagnosis, CMI provides targeted examples for interference-aware memory learning, improving the distinction between valid updates and interference-inducing memories while preserving performance on original memory tasks. These findings show that memory evolution is shaped not only by memory scale, but also by interactions among accumulated experiences. More broadly, memory interference emerges as an important factor for reliable continual agent memory systems.

An Intervention-Based Framework for Shortcut Diagnosis in Spoofing Countermeasures

While deepfake audio detection systems achieve high performance in controlled benchmarks, their reliability often diminishes in the wild. Prior work shows that dataset-specific artifacts contribute to this gap. Yet, systematic tools to identify which acoustic properties a model exploits as shortcuts remain limited. We propose an intervention-based diagnostic framework, grounded in a directed graphical model, that formally distinguishes confound-driven shortcut dependencies from legitimate domain shift. We operationalise this through controlled acoustic perturbations targeting non-speech structure, spectral content, and signal energy, complemented by corpus-level distributional analysis. Evaluating XLS-R-300M with RawGAT-ST across ASVspoof challenges datasets, we quantify model sensitivity to specific intervention types. Results reveal that non-speech interventions produce the largest performance shifts, confirming non-speech intervals as a dominant shortcut.

SciReC: Diagnostic Evaluation of Multimodal, Multi-Turn Relational Reasoning with Adaptive Interaction

Relational reasoning requires the process of perceptual understanding, comparing, and integrating the underlying relationships between concepts. This ability consists of multiple categories, such as analogical, structural, and cause-effect, each capturing a different aspect of higher-order understanding. To examine the performance of multimodal large language models (MLLM) on these relational inference tasks, we developed SciReC, a model-adaptive multimodal academic dialog benchmark. As the relational reasoning process involves multiple representations and various factors (visual understanding, exhibiting knowledge, and memory recall), we propose DMRA, a deficit-based diagnostic framework that quantifies the contribution of these components to identify the primary cause of unsuccessful cases. Claude 4.6 achieved the best performance on the overall relational score with 73\%, followed by GPT 5.4 with 68\%. Performance trends indicate that open-source models achieve their lowest scores on spatial relations, while proprietary models struggle more with hierarchical and sequential relations. Across domains, model performance is lowest on Astronomy and highest on Psychology. The results of DMRA reveal that relational reasoning is the primary source of error across all models, followed by memory limitations.

Temporal Preservation over Processing: Diagnosing and Designing Spatiotemporal Single-Stage Video Detectors

Single-stage video object detectors are increasingly deployed in time-critical applications, yet it remains unclear whether these models genuinely reason over temporal context or merely exploit a single informative frame-a gap hidden by standard metrics, which reward correct predictions regardless of how they are reached. We address this from two complementary directions: first, we propose TemporalLens, a model-agnostic diagnostic framework probing temporal dependence through controlled perturbations, structured occlusions, temporal shuffling, redundancy injection, and resolution degradation, revealing whether a detector actually uses information across time. Applied to stacked-frame 2D detectors and our YOLO-3D architecture, it exposes behavioural differences invisible to mAP: stacked 2D models collapse when the target frame is removed, while spatiotemporal models recover predictions from earlier frames, a signature of real temporal reliance. Second, we detail YOLO-3D, a modular real-time spatiotemporal detector built on YOLOv8, and show that simply preserving temporal depth through the backbone is the dominant performance driver (+3.7 pp mAP@50 at 32 frames averaged across scales). Together, the diagnostics and architecture turn "does this detector reason over time?" into a measurable, actionable question.

A Diagnostic Framework and Multi-Evaluator Audit of Evaluator-Driven Preference Dynamics in Self-Adapting LLM Agents

Measurements of proprietary LLM evaluators can become invalid within weeks -- we document one case and provide the diagnostic framework to detect it. We introduce EPC -- comprising the Multimodal Preference Collapse Index (MPCI), evaluator-indexed coupling matrix, and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) -- and apply it across eight experimental conditions (N=112 main + N=10 ablation = 122 unique repetitions, all reported). Coupling coefficients range from 0.00 to 1.18 across per-condition means (CV approx 0.9, n=8 conditions). Four conditions show strong coupling (N=36; GPT-4o May, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen3.7-plus, DashScope 30r); four collapse to near-zero (N=76; GPT-4o June, qwen-plus N=30, symmetric LR, DeepSeek self-eval). The May-to-June GPT-4o drift -- an N=8 re-replication inverting the study's conclusion -- is the most informative measurement: a diagnostic instrument detecting its own instability demonstrates the fragility it was designed to measure. Self-evaluation (97% zero, JSD=0.003) consistently collapses, though floor effects are possible. Output-format confound analysis finds per-strategy aggregate rho=0.89 but per-instance rho=0.219 (p=0.093); PCI reported as preference-convergence metric. We release EPC with all data. The finding is not any single coupling magnitude but the pattern of version-conditional instability that makes single-snapshot evaluator studies unreliable.

The Divergence Hypothesis: Unmasking Lexical Interference and Label Bias in Mental Health NLP

Computational mental health (CMH) classifiers often degrade under distribution shift because human annotators and distant-supervision pipelines reward different linguistic signals. We introduce TSS (Triple-Stream Stress probe), a multi-channel diagnostic framework that decomposes text into (A) lexical character n-grams, (B) a small, mostly content-free morpho-syntactic channel, and (C) a 154-feature psycholinguistic style channel. Across four English datasets (N=12,906), TSS reveals a lexical interference effect: adding lexical features to the style channel reduces Macro-F1 on human-labeled data (mean drop 0.072, p<10^-4) but not on auto-labeled data. We propose Degree of Divergence (DoD), a difference-in-differences statistic adapted from econometrics for label-source auditing, with instance-level bootstrap inference; the headline estimate is DoD(BC-A) = 0.0374, 95% CI [0.0097, 0.0651], p=0.0032. A platform-stratified Twitter-only DoD (which removes the Reddit vs. Twitter contrast) reproduces the pattern with bootstrap inference: DoD-Tw(BC-A) = +0.096 (p<0.001) and DoD-Tw(AC-A) = -0.089 (p<0.001). Interventional masking (pos_only) retains ~95-99% of Channel C's performance after destroying content words on human datasets, indicating that the style channel does not rely primarily on lexical surface form. TSS is positioned as a diagnostic audit framework, not a clinical screening tool: it flags label-source-specific shortcut learning before generalization claims are made.

Forecasting Is Not Attribution: Localizing Decoder Bypass in Graph-Based Neural Marketing Mix Models

Marketing mix models are used to forecast business outcomes and to attribute those outcomes to marketing channels, but these goals are not equivalent. We study a failure mode in graph-based neural MMM called attribution bypass: a high-capacity decoder can obtain low forecasting error through target autoregression, dense communication, co-movement, context, or latent memory while failing to route counterfactual sensitivity through the graph used as the attribution object. We introduce DICE-MMM as a bounded diagnostic and training framework. We do not claim that observational neural MMM identifies causal effects. Instead, DICE separates three questions often conflated in graph-based MMM: graph recovery, forecasting accuracy, and whether the trained decoder's perturbation-induced influence is graph aligned. Stage 1 trains a graph encoder with a restricted graph-mediated decoder. Stage 2 freezes the selected encoder and trains a graph-safe latent decoder whose cross-node communication must pass through the supplied graph. Decoder use is evaluated with CIG, AR-CIG, and graph-swap tests. Across controlled R/d/T swaps and an external multi-graph rawlog stress test, DICE improves stable graph recovery over CausalMMM. The experiments show that forecasting accuracy is not an attribution certificate: in a sparse-target benchmark, no-graph and full-graph decoders achieve MSE@7 around 0.004 while AR-CIG nAUPRC remains near or below zero, whereas an oracle graph reaches 0.807 +/- 0.129 at comparable MSE. Frozen graph-swap localizes the bottleneck: the same DICE-hard-trained decoder moves from nAUPRC -0.044 +/- 0.006 under learned graph inputs to 0.894 +/- 0.027 with the oracle graph. The contribution is a stress test and failure-localization framework showing that low MSE can hide attribution bypass and that the unresolved bottleneck is graph-support selection, not forecasting or decoder capacity.

ToolSense: A Diagnostic Framework for Auditing Parametric Tool Knowledge in LLMs

Large language models deployed as agents over large tool catalogs face a critical tool-retrieval bottleneck. As embedding-based retrieval approaches rely on compact encoders that may under-capture specialized tool semantics, parametric tool retrieval addresses this by encoding each tool as a virtual token appended to the LLM vocabulary, fine-tuned in two stages (memorization then retrieval SFT) to use the LLM as a retriever, achieving strong performance on standard ToolBench retrieval benchmarks. Yet these benchmarks use verbose, fully-specified queries, and their evaluation applies constrained decoding that restricts outputs to valid token paths, neither reveals whether the model actually understands its tools. We introduce \textbf{ToolSense}, an open-source LLM-powered diagnostic framework that takes any tool catalog as input and automatically generates three benchmarks: a Realistic Retrieval Benchmark (RRB) with queries at three ambiguity tiers, an MCQ probing benchmark, and a QA probing benchmark. Applying ToolSense to ToolBench (~47k tools) and evaluating five parametric model training configurations reveals a knowledge-retrieval dissociation: on RRB queries, several configurations collapse by ~50-64 percentage points compared to fully-specified ToolBench benchmarks, falling below the embedding-model baseline. Additionally, despite strong retrieval performance, some models score near-random on factual probes, suggesting a knowledge-retrieval dissociation. We open-source the ToolSense framework and the ToolBench diagnostic benchmarks at https://github.com/SAP/toolsense.

When Offline Selectors Cannot Beat the Best Single Model: A Diagnostic Study on edX Dropout Prediction

Different predictors often excel on different inputs, so picking the best one per instance promises higher accuracy than committing to a single model. In practice, selectors trained from logged data routinely fail to beat the strongest single predictor. Three causes typically go unseparated before more tuning is applied: a mismatched learner, a state that does not predict which model wins, or buffer-to-deployment label shift. A three-stage diagnostic rules them out on a shared buffer. Stage~1 estimates a local ceiling on oracle recovery from $k$-NN label consistency. Stage~2 asks whether paired BC and offline-RL learners (BC, DQN, and CQL across penalty weights) reach that ceiling. Stage~3 ablates the selector state to test whether richer features would raise it. The combined verdict points to the most promising next step: tuning the learner, redesigning the state, or collecting new data. We apply it to selecting among five dropout-prediction models on edX clickstream data. Across 16 windows, the oracle beats the strongest single base model by 9.7 accuracy points on average, yet BC, DQN, and CQL land in the same test-accuracy band below it (robust to a tenfold buffer sweep and $N{=}2{,}000$ held-out examples). The bottleneck is local representational ambiguity: CQL closes the imitation gap without a deployment gain (not conservatism), regret clusters tightly across learners (not tie-breaking), and the three learners converge on test accuracy (not shift). The next iteration should change the state or collect new data, not tune the offline learner further.