Structured tabular data dominates clinical medicine, yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect real-world properties like complex survey sampling, demographic oversampling, and subgroup fairness. We introduce the NHANES Accelerometry Cardiometabolic Benchmark, derived from NHANES 2003-2006, comprising 1,381 adults with hip-worn accelerometry, fasting laboratory biomarkers, dietary intake, and anthropometrics. We evaluate three tabular learning methods -- ridge regression, XGBoost, and the foundation model TabPFN v2 -- to predict glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) from activity phenotypes and lifestyle covariates. TabPFN v2 achieves the best overall performance (HbA1c R^2=0.156, CRP R^2=0.383), while triglycerides remain largely unpredictable (R^2 < 0.05), consistent with known genetic dominance. We apply split conformal prediction to generate distribution-free 90% prediction intervals and evaluate demographic coverage equity across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Marginal coverage aligns with the 90% target for CRP and HbA1c but falls below for triglycerides. At the subgroup level, we observe localized undercoverage (e.g., HbA1c for Mexican American participants), illustrating the gap between marginal guarantees and the conditional coverage required for clinical fairness. Code and data are at https://github.com/felizzi/nhanes-accel-cardiometabolic-benchmark.
Digital biomarkers for depression have largely relied on static acoustic descriptors, pooled summary statistics, or conventional machine learning representations. Such approaches may miss nonlinear temporal organization embedded in conversational vocal dynamics. We hypothesized that depression is associated with altered recurrence structure in vocal state trajectories, reflecting changes in how the vocal system revisits acoustic states over time. Using the depression subset of the DAIC-WOZ corpus with 142 labeled participants, we modeled frame-level COVAREP trajectories as nonlinear dynamical systems and derived recurrence-based biomarkers from 74 vocal channels. Logistic regression with feature selection and stratified cross-validation evaluated classification performance. Recurrence-based biomarkers achieved a mean cross-validated AUC of 0.689, exceeding static acoustic baselines, entropy-dynamics features, Hurst exponent features, determinism features, and Lyapunov-like instability proxies. Permutation testing indicated statistical significance with $p=0.004$. Pooled cross-validated predictions yielded AUC 0.665 with a 95\% bootstrap confidence interval of [0.568, 0.758]. These findings suggest that depression may be characterized by altered recurrence structure in conversational vocal dynamics and support nonlinear state-space analysis as a promising direction for digital psychiatric biomarkers.