Safety Screening for Voltage Control in Active Distribution Grids via Distributionally Robust Conformal Screening

Deploying a new control policy for voltage control in active distribution grids requires evidence that physical limits will be satisfied before the policy is tested on the physical grid. This assessment is difficult for two reasons. First, simulations cannot capture every disturbance, modeling error, and device interaction present in the real grid. Second, historical measurements reflect operation under existing control policies, whereas a new policy may drive the grid into different operating conditions. To address these challenges, we propose Distributionally Robust Conformal Safety Screening (DR-CSS), a policy-agnostic framework for pre-deployment, scenario-by-scenario screening of a new control policy using historical data and a nominal simulator. For each new scenario, the simulator predicts a future voltage trajectory for the whole grid; DR-CSS then constructs a conformal safety interval around this prediction using historical simulation-to-reality errors. The interval is further enlarged to account for closed-loop changes induced by the deployment of the new policy and its interactions with the remaining controllers. To the best of our knowledge, DR-CSS is the first framework in power systems to combine historical data from an existing control policy with an imperfect simulator for pre-deployment safety screening of a new policy. Experiments on the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 141-bus systems evaluate the deployment of learning-based voltage control policies and show that DR-CSS identifies all unsafe test scenarios. To reduce unnecessary warnings on safe scenarios, we adapt the safety intervals to different operating conditions and gradually introduce new policies with recalibration after each stage. These extensions increase the informational value of the safety screening and support safer deployment decisions in active distribution grids.

Certified Safety Radii in Forecast-Error Space for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Small Signal Stability-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow via Lifted Spectrahedral Containment

Directly robustifying small-signal stability in AC optimal power flow is challenging since the stability boundary in the original uncertainty space is implicit, highly nonconvex, and changes with the operating decision. This paper exploits an alternative geometry. For a fixed model-specific stability certificate admitting suitable physical lifts, the small-signal stability requirement becomes an affine positive semidefinite constraint in the lifted variables, thereby defining a convex certified safe region. Instead of approximating the nonlinear instability boundary itself, we optimize a sample-wise safe radius in the original uncertainty space and certify, in the lifted space, that the entire power-flow image of the corresponding uncertainty ball is contained in the convex stability region. To this end, a componentwise Perron certificate guarantees existence, uniqueness, and Jacobian regularity of the target AC power-flow branch throughout each ball. An adjoint elimination then provides an exact affine-quadratic representation of the stability-relevant quantities, while rigorous matrix remainder bounds convert their nonlinear variation into finite robust PSD constraints. The resulting radii are certified lower bounds on the distances from empirical samples to failure and can therefore be coupled directly to the distance-based reformulation of a Wasserstein distributionally robust chance constraint, without directly approximating the instability boundary. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

Generative Neural Networks for Sinkhorn Distributionally Robust Hypothesis Testing

This paper studies the Sinkhorn distributionally robust hypothesis testing (SDRHT) problem, seeking a robust detector against least-favorable distributions in Sinkhorn discrepancy-based ambiguity sets centered at the empirical distributions. Existing approaches solve this problem by solving large-scale conic programs, which are not scalable. To overcome this, we propose a generative framework that learns least-favorable distributions and supports efficient training and end-to-end sampling. For the Sinkhorn discrepancy-based ambiguity sets, we first derive an equivalent conditional-KL-divergence representation with respect to kernel-smoothed reference distributions. This property allows us to prove strong duality for both constrained and unconstrained minimax SDRHT formulations. Based on the closed-form optimal detector and Brenier's theorem, we reformulate the max-min dual formulation as a maximization problem over convex potentials whose gradients characterize invertible transport maps between kernel-smoothed distributions and their least-favorable counterparts. We efficiently approximate these potentials using Hyper Input Convex Neural Networks (HyCNNs) equipped with stochastic gradient estimators and prove the representation power of HyCNNs and the distributional universality of their induced transport maps. Numerical results show that the proposed method achieves superior accuracy and robustness across different sample sizes and dimensions, while avoiding the scalability limitations of classical SDRHT methods.

Multi-Source Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Graph Learning

Network topology inference from graph signals is central to graph signal processing with applications in neuroscience, sensor, and social networks. In practice, target-domain samples are scarce while heterogeneous source-domain data are abundant. Fusing these sources is challenging: Euclidean averaging works for homogeneous sources but degrades sharply as inter-source divergence grows, collapsing distinct geometries into an inflated, biased consensus. We exploit the Wasserstein metric's distribution-preserving properties to counter heterogeneity while preserving each source's intrinsic geometry. We propose MS-WDRO, a multi-source Wasserstein distributionally robust graph learning framework that fuses heterogeneous sources via their weighted Wasserstein barycenter, a geometrically principled nominal distribution, then builds an ambiguity ball around it to hedge residual uncertainty. Minimizing worst-case risk yields a tractable regularized Laplacian estimator solved efficiently via a provably convergent ADMM scheme. We establish non-asymptotic guarantees: a finite-sample concentration bound for the empirical barycenter, a pooling bias lower bound proving naive aggregation is suboptimal, and an out-of-sample excess risk bound decaying at a parametric rate with only logarithmic dependence on source count. To calibrate hyperparameters governing robustness, sparsity, and source fusion, we unroll the solver into a differentiable architecture trained end-to-end, achieving data-adaptive calibration beyond cross-validation while retaining interpretability. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and the multi-site ABIDE~I neuroimaging dataset show MS-WDRO consistently outperforms seven baselines in graph recovery, sample efficiency, and downstream diagnostic utility, with the largest gains in the sample-scarce regime.

Generalised Transportability via Causal Abstractions

Transporting a causal conclusion from a source study population to a target one is a fundamental problem in causal inference. The theory of transportability provides a criterion for when this is possible: given experimental data from the source and observational data from the target, it determines whether a target query is identifiable and does so completely; i.e. if the query can be transported, the criterion finds the exact formula. However, it works one query at a time and returns an expression rather than the value itself. It is also silent in two practically important regimes: when the query is not transportable and when no target data exist at all. To tackle both, we take a model-level perspective grounded in Causal Abstraction theory. Source and target share variables, graph, and interventions, differing only at a known set of mechanisms, which makes transportability a special case of same-level abstraction. Thus, instead of asking whether one query transports, we ask whether a single map aligns the source and target across their interventional behaviour. We characterise when such a map exists in both the Markovian and semi-Markovian settings; when it does, every target query transports at once. Our main contribution lies in the approximate case. When no exact map exists, the best approximate one still yields certified query intervals, recasting abstraction error as a quantitative notion of approximate transportability. We formulate model-level transport as distributionally robust optimisation over mechanism and environment perturbations of the unseen target and derive certificates for both challenging regimes: bounds for non-transportable queries, and guarantees under target-agnostic settings. We evaluate our framework on synthetic Markovian and semi-Markovian benchmarks and a real ecological dataset, and we show that the certified intervals bracket the true interventional query.

The Sample Complexity of Distributionally Robust PAC Learning under Cressie--Read Divergences

We study distributionally robust PAC learning for the $0$--$1$-loss, where adversarial perturbations of the data distribution are constrained by a Cressie--Read divergence of order $k>1$ and radius $ρ\geq 0$. For hypothesis classes with VC dimension $d$, we establish realizable and agnostic sample-complexity bounds tight up to constant and logarithmic factors, respectively; ordinary empirical risk minimization attains both rates up to logarithmic factors. For target accuracy $\varepsilon\in(0,1)$ and confidence $δ\in(0,1)$, their respective orders are \[ \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon}, \frac{ρ^{\frac 1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}) \qquad\text{and}\qquad \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon^2}, \frac{ρ^{\frac1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star\vee 2}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}), \] where $k_\star={k}/{(k-1)}$. For every fixed $ρ>0$, robustness changes the realizable $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-1}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow0$. In the agnostic case, for $1<k<2$, robustness changes the $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-2}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$, whereas for $k\geq2$ the exponent remains the classical $2$, with nontrivial $ρ$-dependence. Building on the known scalar reduction of robust $0$--$1$ risk to ordinary classification error, our analysis reveals a scale-sensitive interaction between the statistical estimation of classification error and its amplification by robustness, sharply explaining the transition in the agnostic rate. We extend the previously studied $χ^2$-divergence case to every Cressie--Read order $k>1$, close its upper--lower gaps, and recover standard PAC learning rates as $ρ\to0$, unlike previous bounds that fail to interpolate correctly in this limit.

Achieving First-Order Statistical Improvements in Data-Driven Optimization: From No-Free-Lunch to Amplified Decision Perturbation

Recent proliferation of data-optimization integration has led to a range of methods that aim to improve the statistical performance of data-driven optimization decisions. However, while many of these methods are motivated intuitively from a robustness or regularization perspective, their resulting statistical benefits are often unclear and, even if available, are established on a case-by-case basis. We provide a systematic dissection of data-driven optimization formulations using the view of "directionally perturbed" empirical optimization (EO). Specifically, this umbrella of formulations, which we call "EO+", covers many existing data-driven optimization methods, including regularization, distributionally robust optimization, transfer learning, and analogous methods for contextual optimization. On the one hand, we argue that without additional, correctly specified, side information, any EO+ method can result in at most second-order improvements. This provides a negative conclusion, namely ``no free lunch is possible", on the statistical power of EO+. On the other hand, we show that when leveraging side information that is geometrically effective, achieving first-order improvements is possible by choosing hyperparameters that are significantly larger than what is typically suggested in the literature. Moreover, we construct a principled methodology based on excess risk estimation, via either system knowledge or bootstrap resampling, to maximize the first-order gain. We demonstrate how this gain connects to the control-variate principle, a variance reduction technique in the Monte Carlo simulation literature, which helps explain why geometrically effective side information is necessary.

Generative Distributionally Robust Optimization

Generative models are increasingly adopted in distributionally robust optimization (DRO), but existing approaches trade off model compatibility and adversarial structure: methods that accept arbitrary samplers do not restrict worst-case laws to a generator family, while generator-parameterized adversaries rely on model-specific access such as likelihoods, scores, or training data. We propose Generative Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), a principled framework that accepts any sampleable conditional generator as the nominal model and restricts worst-case laws to a chosen conditional generator family. The key is the sampler-Sinkhorn pairing: samplers represent the conditional laws exactly, while Sinkhorn divergence compares their induced distributions without likelihood access and can be estimated from samples alone. The resulting population problem admits a direct finite-sample approximation and differentiable primal-dual implementation at the active decision context. For Lipschitz losses, the population Sinkhorn radius bounds downstream degradation. Across explicit and implicit generators, our method reduces rare-context inventory regret by 60% and SocialGAN navigation collisions by 50% relative to nominal decisions.

Robust Chance-Constrained Optimization using a Continuous Parameter Space Wasserstein-2 Ambiguity Set of Gaussian Mixtures

We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.

Decision Making Needs Uncertainty Quantification [Lecture Notes]

Many signal processing systems ultimately exist to {act}. Whenever the state variable that determines the action to be taken by a decision maker, or agent, is uncertain, the way that uncertainty is represented decides how well the agent performs and how much its performance can be trusted. This lecture note develops, from first principles and within a single decision-theoretic setting, the link between the {objective} and the knowledge of an agent and the form of uncertainty representation that is sufficient to act optimally. To start, assuming a known environment distribution, we show that a risk-neutral agent needs the posterior distribution over the state, whereas a risk-averse agent can rely without loss of optimality on a {prediction set} and a worst-case decision rule. We then turn to the case in which the environment is unknown, and identify three complementary approaches to address the resulting epistemic uncertainty: calibration of a fixed predictor, credal (ambiguity) sets with distributionally robust optimization, and Bayesian inference over model parameters. The common thread is that reliable decisions require an uncertainty representation matched to the decision objective and to the knowledge profile of the agent, together with a guarantee that certifies the utility the agent will actually obtain.

HABIB_TAZ at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Disentangling Formal Logic from Content via Synthetic Training and Multi-Objective Optimization

While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in many general NLP tasks, their formal reasoning capabilities are often compromised by content effects, demonstrating a measurable bias towards real-world plausibility. In this paper, we present our system for SemEval-2026 Task 11, which evaluates the ability of models to disentangle formal logic from content across 12 languages with and without distractor premises. We address this challenge using mDeBERTa-v3 networks fine-tuned on a synthetic, rule-based dataset of syllogistic schemes to avoid the semantic noise of LLM-augmented data. To explicitly decouple plausibility from logical structure, our training pipeline employs a multi-objective loss function combining Adaptive Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), a scheduled differentiable bias penalty, and KL-Divergence consistency regularization. Our system achieved #1 ranks and perfect Ranking Scores (100.0) with 0.00% bias and 100.0% accuracy on Subtask 1 (English), Subtask 2 (Noisy English), and Subtask 3 (Multilingual). On the highly complex Subtask 4 (Noisy Multilingual), the system achieved the 6th rank with 89.06% Accuracy and F1-score, alongside a limited 2.89% Bias and a 37.78 Ranking Score. Our dataset generation engine and codebase are publicly available to facilitate future work on robust logical reasoning.

Distributionally Robust and Safe Imitation Learning

Imitation learning (IL) has achieved remarkable success in complex decision-making tasks. However, its performance is highly sensitive to distribution shifts, which can pose significant safety risks. We propose a distributionally robust and safe IL framework that explicitly addresses both policy-induced and uncertainty-induced distribution shifts. Our approach develops a unified framework leveraging Taylor Series Imitation Learning (TaSIL) to mitigate policy-induced shifts and distributionally robust adaptive control to handle uncertainty-induced shifts. This architecture enables the formulation of an IL problem that optimizes performance under distributional uncertainty while systematically accounting for safety constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) case study where the UAV performs a task in an uncertain environment while avoiding unsafe regions.

Learning Predictive Ambiguity Sets for Decision-Focused Distributionally Robust Optimization

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

PeTeR: Post-Training Robustification of Probabilistic Circuits

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) can model complex joint distributions while supporting exact and efficient computation of many inference queries. However, standard likelihood-based PC learning is vulnerable to overfitting and fragile generalization when confronted with data noise, small sample sizes, or distribution shifts. This can be mitigated using distributionally-robust optimization which consider worst-case distributions within a Wasserstein ball of the empirical distribution, but current methods are limited to training a model from scratch in this framework. Instead, we propose PeTeR: a novel, data-free post-training framework designed to robustify pre-trained PCs against distribution shifts without retraining from scratch. Empirical evaluations across multiple density estimation benchmarks demonstrate that PeTeR effectively robustifies baseline models against both random and adversarial perturbations, achieving competitive or superior performance to data-dependent robust learning baselines.

Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch

The increasing uncertainty from flexible demand and renewable generation has made distributionally robust optimization (DRO) an important tool for robust power system dispatch. DRO relies on forecast scenarios to construct ambiguity sets, but conventional scenario generation pipelines are often trained in an accuracy-oriented manner and may neglect spatial correlations among uncertainties. This mismatch can produce ambiguity sets that are statistically plausible but suboptimal for downstream operation. This work proposes a decision-focused generative framework for correlated scenario generation in DRO-based dispatch. Instead of training generative models solely to fit the historical uncertainty distribution, the proposed framework optimizes generated scenarios according to their induced downstream operational cost. The proposed framework is tailored to mainstream generative models, including variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models, while capturing the joint distribution of uncertainties across buses. To improve computational tractability, we further develop a differentiable scenario selector that selects decision-relevant scenarios from a generated pool and can be trained within the same decision-focused pipeline. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively reduces 0.80%-2.02% operational cost across different generative models compared to accuracy-oriented methods.

Distributionally Robust Linear Regression With Block Lewis Weights

We present an algorithm for the group distributionally robust (GDR) least squares problem. Given $m$ groups, a parameter vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and stacked design matrices and responses $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{b}$, our algorithm obtains a $(1+\varepsilon)$-multiplicative optimal solution using $\widetilde{O}(\min\{\mathsf{rank}(\mathbf{A}),m\}^{1/3}\varepsilon^{-2/3})$ linear-system-solves of matrices of the form $\mathbf{A}^{\top}\mathbf{B}\mathbf{A}$ for block-diagonal $\mathbf{B}$. Our technical methods follow from a recent geometric construction, block Lewis weights, that relates the empirical GDR problem to a carefully chosen least squares problem and an application of accelerated proximal methods. Our algorithm improves over known interior point methods for moderate accuracy regimes and matches the state-of-the-art guarantees for the special case of $\ell_{\infty}$ regression. We also give algorithms that smoothly interpolate between minimizing the average least squares loss and the distributionally robust loss.

Sampler-Robust Optimization under Generative Models

Modern stochastic optimization pipelines increasingly rely on learned generative models to represent uncertainty, while downstream decisions are evaluated almost entirely through Monte Carlo scenarios. This shifts the operational object of uncertainty from an explicit probability law to the sampler induced by the learned generator. Reliability therefore depends on two errors: sampler misspecification and finite-simulation error. We propose Sampler-Robust Optimization (SRO), which optimizes decisions against the worst-case sampler induced by perturbing the learned generator. This sampler-first formulation aligns with simulation-based decision pipelines and admits a sharpness-aware interpretation: it favors decisions whose performance is stable under generator perturbations, rather than merely under the nominal sampler. Under a coverage assumption, we show that the empirical worst-case objective provides a high-probability upper certificate for the true population objective, with finite-simulation error partially absorbed by the robustification used to guard against sampler misspecification. The framework accommodates generative models with or without explicit densities and admits efficient minimax procedures. Portfolio-optimization experiments show that SRO produces more stable decisions and improves out-of-sample performance under distribution shift.