Majority voting over LLMs is widely assumed to benefit from diversity, and diversity measures are used to choose which models to combine. We ask whether five such measures track diversity or mainly re-express capability, auditing them as predictors of majority-vote gain over the best member across 31,900 subsets of 30 LLMs on MMLU-Pro (29 on TruthfulQA) under explicit capability controls. Three findings emerge. First, latent complementarity is ubiquitous: oracle gain is positive in 100% of subsets, yet simple voting beats the strongest member in only 9.98% of all canonical size-3 subsets (18.71% with held-out best selection); the pooled size-2-4 rate is 1.27%, partly reflecting deterministic even-size voting behavior. Second, a joint-correctness proxy (strict diversity) is nearly collinear with one minus mean accuracy (size-3 Spearman rho = +0.991 / +0.988); raw diversity-gain associations are strongly capability-entangled and, with one exception, unstable under control. Third, three linear contingency-table statistics are algebraically non-separable; after capability control, the empirically stable remainder is a modest residual pairwise co-failure association in which more shared error corresponds to lower gain. This direction is robust, but its magnitude is configuration-dependent. Joint rawspace linear regressions treating strict diversity, disagreement, and double-fault as independent predictors are rank-deficient by construction.
Diversity in LLM mathematical reasoning is critical for exploration, but common diversity metrics mostly capture surface-level variation rather than differences in how a problem is solved. We address this gap by introducing approach-level diversity: variation in strategies across correct solutions to the same problem. Using a human-calibrated LLM judge framework, we show that prior diversity measures are unreliable proxies for approach-level diversity, and this mismatch carries over to diversity-aware RLVR, where target metrics are preserved while approach-level diversity declines. Investigating when approach-level diversity helps and whether it can be directly induced, we find that approach-diverse candidate sets improve test-time scaling. However, optimizing an LLM judge diversity reward during training causes the policy to exploit judge-specific preferences rather than broaden its approaches, leaving direct optimization of approach-level diversity as an open problem. Together, our work introduces the notion of approach-level diversity and uncovers a systematic divergence between surface- and approach-level signals, marking a step toward LLMs that reason in genuinely diverse, human-like ways.