Landau theory of quenched criticality in linear in-context learning

In-context learning (ICL) allows a pretrained model to infer a new task from examples supplied in its prompt without updating its parameters. In linear models of ICL, the prediction error develops a double-descent singularity when the number of pretraining samples becomes comparable to the number of learnable parameters. We formulate this interpolation singularity as a critical phenomenon of a quenched disordered system. By comparing annealed and quenched descriptions of the same linear ICL model, we identify the connected sample-to-sample fluctuations of the learned parameters as the microscopic origin of the singular error. A Landau potential is constructed by integrating the cavity self-consistency equation for the renormalized ridge parameter $ξ$. The role of (magnetization) order parameter is played by $ξ$, while the bare ridge parameter $λ$ becomes its conjugate magnetic field. The normalized sample complexity $τ$ acts as a temperature and the double-descent singularity occurs at the critical temperature $τ_c =1$. The Landau susceptibility is precisely the quantity that diverges in the fluctuation contribution to the prediction error. The order parameter is closely related to the fraction of zero eigenvalues of the empirical relaxation matrix in the ridgeless limit, which define flat directions in the learning dynamics. The Landau theory is generically cubic in the order parameter with critical exponents $(β_{\rm cr},δ_{\rm cr},γ_{\rm cr})=(1,2,1)$. In the large-context regime, there appears a pseudogap-like regime characterized by suppressed order parameter. Predictions of the Landau theory are independently confirmed from numerical solutions of the original learning problem with good quantitative agreement. Our results pave the way for solid statistical-physics understanding of the interpolation criticality in linear in-context learning.

(Mis)Understanding Benign Overfitting in Equity Return Prediction

Highly overparameterized models often predict well despite interpolating training data in complex domains, challenging the classical bias--variance tradeoff. We investigate whether this ``benign overfitting'' phenomenon extends to equity return prediction. Consistent with recent statistical theory, we document two key phenomena: first, a double descent pattern in the ridgeless model's prediction risk; and second, that while the optimal ridge model consistently outperforms its ridgeless counterpart, this performance gap becomes negligible at large parameter-to-observation ratios. Ultimately, however, both models fail to outperform a simple historical average. This empirical evidence aligns with our asymptotic results under the null hypothesis of zero slope coefficients, suggesting that standard equity predictors lack true forecasting power---even within highly flexible, nonlinear machine learning architectures. These findings reconcile modern and classical machine learning in asset pricing: in the absence of a true signal, they asymptotically collapse to the historical average benchmark.

High-dimensional ridgeless least squares interpolation under spiked covariance structures

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the out-of-sample prediction risk of the high-dimensional ridgeless least-squares estimator when the feature dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow proportionally. We consider a generalized spiked population covariance model with multiple latent factors, where the number of spiked eigenvalues may remain finite or increase with $n$, and the spiked eigenvalues may be bounded or diverge at arbitrary rates. Beyond characterizing the impact of covariance spectra, we reveal a new mechanism underlying benign overfitting: the prediction behavior of ridgeless interpolation is fundamentally governed by the alignment between the regression coefficient $\boldsymbolβ$ and the spiked eigenspaces of the population covariance matrix. In particular, we show that the signal energy distributed along latent spike directions determines whether interpolation leads to benign, tempered, or catastrophic overfitting. Our theoretical framework establishes sharp prediction risk limits under minimal moment conditions, requiring only finite fourth moments rather than Gaussianity. We characterize how the number, strength, and geometric structure of the spikes jointly influence the double-descent phenomenon. These results provide a unified understanding of when latent covariance structures facilitate or hinder generalization in overparameterized regression.

Double Descent in Gradient Boosting Decision Trees via Split-Candidate Scaling

Double descent is commonly studied by scaling an explicit capacity parameter, such as neural-network width. For gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs), however, an analogous single-axis capacity parameter has not been established. We propose the number of split candidates as an operational capacity parameter for GBDTs. Holding other training controls fixed, increasing the split-candidate budget refines the feature-quantization grid and expands the dictionary of root-to-leaf paths from which boosting selects its updates. To analyze this expansion, we construct an empirical tree-kernel diagnostic that summarizes how candidate-induced paths group the training examples. A regime in which the empirical kernel rank grows toward the sample size and very small positive eigenvalues emerge exposes noise-sensitive directions; in this regime, test error peaks before decreasing again at larger split-candidate budgets. This perspective predicts that deeper trees should reach the regime with fewer split candidates, larger training sets should require finer grids, and label noise should make the peak more pronounced. Experiments support these predictions and show test-error peaks at intermediate split-candidate budgets across XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, whereas a random-forest control improves monotonically under the same split-candidate sweep. Taken together, our analysis and experiments support split-candidate scaling as a single-axis capacity intervention for studying GBDTs and suggest that the observed double descent arises from an interaction between candidate-induced geometry and boosting dynamics.

Origins and mitigation of double descent in reduced order modeling

Latent low-dimensional structure in datasets of natural and engineered systems enables their sparse sensing, or full-state reconstruction from historical data and very few carefully chosen localized measurements. Depending on the reconstruction algorithm, sensor locations, and measurement noise, the reconstruction risk curves demonstrate a diversity of patterns including a dramatic peak in error known as double descent in Machine Learning literature. Here we explore those scenarios under a unified Data-Noise Averaging theory. Qualitatively, we formulate sufficient criteria for double descent to emerge through a catastrophic amplification of a pathological signal in reconstruction. Quantitatively, we predict the detailed risk curves at a fraction of computational cost, trace reconstruction instability to individual sensors and their combinations, and provide regularization mechanisms to mitigate the instability. We demonstrate results for both static reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature patterns and time integration of a reduced order model of a PDE.

Cautious optimism for deep parameterized quantum circuits

A central challenge in quantum machine learning is understanding the scaling behavior of parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs). In particular, it remains unclear how their performance on unseen data changes as the number of trainable parameters increases. Prior works have derived formal generalization guarantees for quantum models, but it is well-known that many such results do not fully characterize generalization behavior in practice. In this work, we show that gradient-based PQCs can exhibit improved performance on unseen data as model size increases, displaying the phenomenon of double descent. This contrasts with the traditional view that larger models lead to degraded generalization. We provide analytical results rigorously underpinning this behavior by leveraging add-one-in perturbation techniques and spectral properties of random matrices. We support these results with numerical experiments on re-uploading PQCs across several data sets and training set sizes, consistently observing the predicted double descent behavior. While other obstacles on the path toward practical quantum machine learning remain, our finding that deeper parameterized quantum circuits do not necessarily exhibit degraded performance provides reasons for cautious optimism.

Broken Ergodicity and the Violation of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem Lead to Generalization Beyond Overfitting in Machine Learning

The remarkable ability of modern neural networks to generalize improves with increasing network capacity, even when the number of model parameters or effective degrees of freedom exceeds the number of training data points. This phenomenon is all the more surprising given that generalization error diverges when the number of model parameters approaches a critical value from below. Here we use dynamical mean field theory to show that this so-called "double descent" behavior is the outcome of a phase transition in the stochastic field theory describing the training process. We calculate the critical exponents and scaling function of the double descent phase transition, and show that it is marked by a breakdown of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem associated with broken ergodicity. The corresponding response function has the same functional form as the simple London model of the superconducting transition, with the rigidity of the wave function corresponding to the neural network's ability to generalize accurately.

Benign Overfitting Does Not Occur in Diffusion Models

Benign overfitting and double descent have come to shape our understanding of generalization in deep learning, establishing that overfitting is not only compatible with good generalization but can actively benefit it. Diffusion models share much of the machinery of standard deep learning, so it is natural to assume that they also exhibit these properties. In this work, we show that this assumption is largely incorrect. We first establish fundamental impossibility results showing that, unless the sample size grows exponentially with the data dimension, overfitting and good generalization cannot occur simultaneously. Consequently, the population loss follows a classical U-shaped curve in model complexity rather than exhibiting double descent. Analyzing a simplified setting, we identify a key difference between regression and score matching: regression benefits from an alignment between the target and the empirical covariance; score matching admits no such alignment, leaving overfitting irreparably harmful. We further identify implicit regularization stemming from time-smoothness of the score and early stopping during training as mechanisms that prevent such overfitting and verify our findings with high-dimensional image generation experiments. Our results reveal that generalization in diffusion models is governed by mechanisms distinct from those of traditional regression, motivating the development of new theory.

A Rigorous, Tractable Measure of Model Complexity

An accurate assessment of a model's complexity is crucial for topics such as interpretation, generalization, and model selection. However, most existing complexity measures either rely on heuristic assumptions or are computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we present a mathematically rigorous yet easy-to-compute measure of model complexity that is based on the similarities between the model gradients across inputs. It is thus well-defined for any parametric model, but also for kernel-based non-parametric models. We prove that our measure of complexity generalizes model-specific complexity measures such as polynomial degree (for polynomial regression), kernel length scale (for Matérn kernels), number of neighbors (for k-nearest neighbors), number of splits (for decision trees), and number of trees (for random forests). We also use our measure to obtain new insights into the double descent phenomenon for random Fourier features, random forests, neural networks, and gradient boosting.