A Network-driven Framework for Public Event Forecasting via Dynamic Interaction Network Evolution

Effective public event forecasting is essential for intelligent service systems, enabling proactive risk management, adaptive resource allocation, and timely decision-making. In many real-world scenarios, the evolution of public events is driven by dynamic interactions among participants. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes auto-ibDLM, a network-driven deep learning framework that represents events as dynamic interaction networks and predicts public event evolution through participant growth forecasting. The proposed framework adopts a hybrid representation learning strategy that first represents network evolution using network science-informed structural metrics and subsequently transforms the resulting structural feature vectors into compact and robust latent representations through an auto-learning layer. A GRU-based temporal forecasting module is then employed to capture temporal dependencies and predict future participant growth. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world public event datasets and two publicly available dynamic network datasets demonstrate that auto-ibDLM consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and generalization capability, achieving over 97% accuracy in public event forecasting. Comprehensive experimental analyses further validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid representation learning strategy and demonstrate its representation-level interpretability. These results indicate that auto-ibDLM provides an effective and practical solution for intelligent public event forecasting.

ENAF: A Multi-Exit Network with an Adaptive Patch Fusion for Large Image Super Resolution

To accelerate single image super-resolution (SISR) networks on large images (2K-8K), many recent approaches decompose an image into small patches and dynamically determine an execution path according to its difficulty (referred to as a dynamic network). To quantify the hardness of a patch, they mainly rely on a handcrafted assessment score, e.g., edge, which weakly associates a patch's texture with the computational complexity of a SISR model. To address the problem, we introduce ENAF - a dynamic network for SISR with an adaptive patch fusion. Built on top of a backbone, ENAF incorporates multiple early exits (EEs) to tackle the over-parameterized SISR model. More importantly, ENAF plugs a tiny network that estimates PSNR to associate data texture with a computation cost at an EE. Based on the scores, ENAF effectively assigns image patches to an exit, enhancing the quality-complexity trade-off. Extensive experiments on common datasets with popular SISR backbones demonstrate the effectiveness of ENAF in various settings. The source code is provided in https://github.com/nmduonggg/ENAF

TVGL-CFM:Generating and Forecasting Time-Varying Trajectories of Dynamic Networks with Conditional Flow Matching

Many complex systems such as brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits are described not by a fixed graph but by one that changes over time. A standard way to summarise such structure at each instant is the sparse precision (inverse-covariance) matrix, and the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) turns a multivariate signal into a smooth chain of these matrices. We introduce TVGL-CFM, a single model that learns the distribution of such chains and can both generate new, realistic time-varying network trajectories for a given class and forecast how an observed trajectory will continue. Each precision matrix lives on a curved space of positive-definite matrices, but a log-Euclidean chart flattens an entire trajectory into an ordinary vector space, so a simple conditional flow-matching model can be trained and sampled there while every decoded matrix is guaranteed to be a valid precision matrix. For forecasting we start the flow not from noise but from a rough extrapolation of the recent history, so the model only has to learn a small correction. Across EEG motor-imagery, chaotic systems, and gene-expression data, TVGL-CFM generates trajectories that keep the class-discriminative structure of real data, and it forecasts future connectivity more accurately than raw-signal baselines. Generating the structured precision trajectory directly is therefore more faithful than generating raw signals and estimating connectivity afterwards.

Hyperparameter Learning for Latent Factorization of Tensors for Representation Learning to Large-scale Dynamic Weighted Directed Network

Large-scale dynamic weighted directed networks (DWDNs) are widely used to model time-varying interactions among nodes. Latent factorization of tensors (LFT) extracts target knowledge from DWDNs via low-rank embedding. However, similar to many machine learning models, the performance of LFT heavily depends on the selection of hyperparameters. In practice, these parameters are often tuned manually or through grid search, which requires significant computational resources and human effort. Motivated by this challenge, this paper proposes an automated hyperparameter optimization framework based on Differential Evolution (DE) for LFT (DE-LFT). The proposed method integrates DE into the training process of the LFT model to automatically learn optimal regularization parameters $λ_1$, $λ_2$ and $λ_3$. As a result, the model can adaptively search the hyperparameter space and improve prediction accuracy. Experimental results on four real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves lower MAE and RMSE compared with manually tuned baselines while reducing the need for extensive parameter tuning.

Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points

A central challenge in dynamic network analysis is to represent temporal evolution in a way that is both geometrically meaningful and statistically identifiable. One approach embeds a sequence of network snapshots as trajectories in a Euclidean space and relates these trajectories to node embeddings. In multilayer and unfolded spectral constructions, however, node embeddings and their underlying latent positions are identifiable only up to general linear transformations. Although this ambiguity preserves edge probabilities, it can distort geometry and invalidate distance based temporal comparisons at both the trajectory and node-levels. We develop Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT), a framework for multiscale temporal trajectories based on second-moment geometry. By imposing an isotropic normalization on the anchor latent positions, we reduce the relevant ambiguity to orthogonal transformations and prevent distortion of the second-moment geometry. In this canonical representation, we define a trace variation distance and mode-wise variation distances along orthogonal directions, and use multidimensional scaling to obtain low-dimensional trajectories of time points at both global and mode-wise levels. The resulting trajectories support interpretation and inference. They admit mode-wise decompositions, support attribution of global and mode-wise temporal changes to nodes, and enable change point detection through 1D trajectories. We prove consistency of the proposed unfolded spectral embedding and of the induced temporal trajectories. Experiments on two synthetic and two real dynamic networks illustrate stable and interpretable recovery of temporal structure and show strong performance against existing change point detection baselines.