Dynamics Models for Offline Hyperparameter Selection in Real-World RL

A key obstacle to deploying reinforcement learning in real-world systems is hyperparameter selection, particularly when simulators are unavailable and online experimentation is costly. Prior work has proposed calibration models trained on offline data to approximate environment dynamics and enable offline hyperparameter selection, but these methods have so far been evaluated only in simple simulated settings. In this paper, we present the first application of calibration models in a real-world industrial setting: a municipal water treatment plant. We evaluate several calibration model approaches, including a k-nearest neighbors model with a Laplacian distance metric, on high-dimensional, non-stationary sensor data for nexting prediction tasks. Our results show that these models can generate realistic long-horizon rollouts and recover meaningful hyperparameter sensitivity trends. We further examine how calibration models scale to year-long datasets, how they support the selection of fine-tuning learning rates for pre-trained agents, and how robust they are under distribution shift. Overall, our findings provide a proof of concept for using offline dynamics models to support RL deployment in real-world environments, while highlighting important practical challenges for future work.

When Dynamics Models Read the Wrong Time Steps: Label-Free Event Credit Re-Anchoring for Robust Global Readouts

Learned dynamics models often answer global physical questions, such as fault severity or impact stiffness, by pooling a per-step feature sequence into one readout vector. This sequence-to-global interface creates an under-studied temporal credit problem: with only trajectory-level supervision, a model can predict accurately in training conditions while reading from abundant smooth correlates rather than the brief physical events that determine the target. We call this failure temporal credit dilution. It is not exposed by the training loss and is not removed by standard physics-informed residuals, because the error lies in where the global readout assigns functional credit. We introduce Credit-in-Event, an interface-level probe for measuring how much pooled credit lands on event steps, and prove in closed form that a pooled linear reader routes credit to a spurious background channel as the event fraction shrinks. We then propose CREST, a training-free and label-free readout that estimates a transient event core from learned features and re-anchors the pooled representation through event-versus-rest contrast. Across simulated gear and impact systems, recurrent and attention encoders, and public bearing vibration data, CREST reduces out-of-distribution error while restoring event credit. Ablations show that stable-step selection and receptive-field shrinking fail, confirming that the gain comes from event-core credit re-anchoring rather than a generic locality or stability prior.