Improving Mental Health Screening and Early Risk Detection in Spanish

Early detection of mental health disorders is often limited by the lack of specialized resources in Spanish and the difficulty of analyzing long histories of social media posts. This paper addresses these challenges through three main contributions. First, we introduce three Spanish foundational models specifically adapted to the mental health domain through domain-specific pre-training. Second, we propose Incremental Context Expansion (ICE), an automatic relabeling methodology designed for early detection. ICE identifies the point at which cumulative messages provide enough evidence of a disorder, generating more informative training samples. Third, we provide a set of fine-tuned models using the samples generated with the ICE methodology for early risk detection tasks. Our results on three Spanish benchmarks show that combining these specialized models with ICE improves the state-of-the-art, reducing detection latency while maintaining high performance. All models are publicly available.

Token Budget Saturation and Mechanistic Early Detection of Reasoning Non-Convergence in Chain-of-Thought Models

Chain-of-thought reasoning models such as DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B exhibit a bimodal convergence pattern: generations either terminate within a token budget (converged) or exhaust it without reaching a conclusion (non-converged). We characterize this phenomenon empirically, showing that converged generations achieve 90.3% accuracy on AIME 1983-2024 while non-converged ones achieve only 6.6%, with an overall convergence rate of 62.0%. We then ask whether this outcome is detectable early in the thinking chain using internal model representations. Training linear probes on hidden-state activations at token positions 50-300, we find that layer-20 activations at token 150 achieve AUC 0.608 (+-0.080, 5-fold CV), reliably above chance even at token 50. Activation probes consistently outperform behavioral baselines derived from token entropy and repetition statistics. A sweep-level permutation test yields p=0.063 (100,000 permutations), consistent with a modest signal that our sample size cannot confirm at conventional thresholds. These findings suggest that convergence fate is partially encoded in intermediate representations well before the generation ends, opening a path toward early-exit inference and adaptive compute allocation.

Contextualized Early Detection of Online Firestorms: A Sequential LLM-Based Approach

Online firestorms are rapid collective escalations of highly negative user-generated content and may cause substantial reputational and economic damage. Existing detectors usually work with volume signals, sentiment scores, or predefined linguistic features. Such signals are useful, but they capture contextual meaning shifts in evolving discussion threads only indirectly. This paper proposes an LLM-based detection system with two operating modes. The first mode classifies complete Reddit threads retrospectively by combining local chunk-level assessments into a thread-level judgment. The second mode processes threads sequentially and issues early warnings when a sliding window exceeds calibrated thresholds. In this mode, the language model estimates three firestorm indicators: negativity share, escalation level, and contributor count. On a balanced Reddit dataset, the global mode achieves strong classification performance, while the early warning mode reaches high recall and detects escalating threads after only a small number of comments and distinct contributors. The results indicate that LLMs can be used not only for static judgment tasks, but also as repeated estimators in context-aware monitoring of social media discourse.