Random feature methods provide a scalable approximation to kernel ridge regression (KRR), but the regularization parameter that yields the oracle learning rate depends on unknown smoothness and capacity parameters. In this work, we propose a neighboring early-stopping rule for adaptive regularization in KRR with random features (KRR-RF). The method uses a grid that is uniform in inverse regularization and compares only adjacent estimators, reducing the number of discrepancy comparisons relative to standard all-pairs Lepskii-type procedures. Both the neighboring discrepancy and its empirical complexity term can be computed directly in the random feature space, without constructing the exact kernel Gram matrix. We establish a high-probability comparison bound for neighboring KRR-RF estimators and show that, under standard source and capacity conditions together with suitable grid and random feature budget conditions, the selected estimator attains the oracle polynomial learning rate up to logarithmic factors. The result allows the regularization parameter to be selected without prior knowledge of the source and capacity exponents and covers both well-specified and partially misspecified regimes. Our analysis is based on an empirical random feature effective dimension that connects the observable stopping threshold with the population complexity of the random feature model. Simulation and real-data experiments illustrate the prediction performance and computational behavior of the proposed method in comparison with standard tuning procedures.
Training neural networks requires balancing the trade-off between fitting the training data and achieving robust performance on unseen inputs. This ability, commonly referred to as generalizability, is determined by the gap between the empirical risk on the training set (``empirical loss'') and the expected risk over the data distribution (``generalization error''). Existing approaches typically estimate the generalization error numerically, requiring gradient descent training and an ``early stopping'' strategy. In this work, we introduce an analytic framework that estimates the optimal time of early stopping without the need for training. Several works in the literature also give such analytical estimations, but they are generally based on random matrix theory and often make assumptions on the distribution of the data or the eigenvalue distribution of the covariance matrix. In contrast, our work is based on Rademacher complexity (RC) without needing such probabilistic assumptions. For both theoretical and numerical reasons, it is more relevant to express RC with the L1- norm rather than with the L2-norm. We focus on the case of linear models and the problem of linear regression. Thanks to the ``linear probing'' method, our results can, however, be successfully applied to nonlinear neural networks, as illustrated in the classification MNIST example.
Reinforcement-learning training of reasoning LLMs (e.g., GRPO) is expensive and requires a controllable environment, committing every contribution to a full training pipeline. We present EvoResearcher, a training-free, inference-time protocol that adds cost-bounded self-reflection to a single frozen LLM backbone. The protocol iterates generate -> self-critique -> revise until a maximum depth D is reached or the critique returns the CONFIRMED sentinel, an implicit early stop that lets the backbone self-verify its answer under a strict compute budget. Four self-reflective meta-reward components (correctness, efficiency, reflection depth, tool-call diversity) act as design principles instantiated as prompt-level mechanisms, so their benefits accrue with zero gradient updates. We validate the protocol on Big-Bench Hard (100 questions) and establish cross-domain behavior on GSM8K (500) and MATH (500) on the same frozen backbone, with cross-model replication on Qwen2.5-72B. All experiments use pure-reasoning benchmarks; the tool-call diversity component is validated in prompt-level form, and the environment-level and multi-agent extensions are design blueprints left to future work. On clean BBH the protocol does not raise accuracy beyond the 95% Wilson interval; its value is cost-bounded self-verification, with the CONFIRMED early stop terminating 82-88% of items at equal accuracy (about 2.1 generations per question).
Diffusion models offer a natural way to model uncertainty in time series forecasting, yet their iterative sampling process is often treated as a uniformly beneficial refinement procedure. Our study challenges this view by examining how forecast quality evolves throughout reverse diffusion. We find that general temporal structure is often recovered at relatively high noise levels, whereas continued low-noise refinement can introduce statistical drift and degrade the final forecast. Our analysis further suggests that this behavior explains why prior methods often favor relatively narrow diffusion architecture and schedule design. Building on this observation, we propose a label-free global stopping criterion that detects the optimal termination point, eventually speeding up inference and improving predictive accuracy. Additionally, since early stopping terminates inference in high-noise regions, we propose a Bernoulli timestep sampler that concentrates training on this region while preserving coverage of the full diffusion process. Extensive experiments conducted across eight real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to existing approaches.
Recent research on Large Language Model (LLM) safety has widely adopted guardrails to identify unsafe LLM outputs. Existing guardrails typically formulate safety assessment as a deterministic classification task, mapping a discrete token sequence to a discrete safety label. However, this paradigm has two limitations: First, safety assessment is inherently an uncertain problem, particularly during the early generation state. Second, relying solely on discrete token sequences discards the rich probabilistic information embedded in the LLM output distribution. To address these limitations, we propose the first completely probabilistic architecture-agnostic guardrail \textsc{ProbGuard} to leverage the LLM early output distributional signals for estimating and calibrating the safety probability, thereby enabling early stopping of unsafe ongoing outputs. Specifically, given an LLM's generated prefix distribution, we formulate the safety risk as the unsafe probability of its continued generation dynamics and estimate this risk by Monte-Carlo sampling. Through post-training on the distributional signals and calibrated safety risk, \textsc{ProbGuard} achieves the best calibration performance across all nine model--dataset combination settings, reducing the average Brier score and ECE by 79.6\% and 71.9\%, respectively, over the best baseline. \textsc{ProbGuard} further limits the attack success rate to at most 1\% across six representative jailbreak attacks after observing the LLM early output distributions from only the first ten decoding steps.
Deciding which of two agents is stronger means playing games until skill outweighs luck, and every game costs money, model inference, or expert time. Since the number of games needed is unknown, fixed-budget evaluations either keep paying after the result is settled or stop before the agents can be told apart, while naive optional stopping with an ordinary confidence interval invalidates the stated level. We make such an evaluation stop as soon as its evidence suffices, with the guarantee intact. The Action-Informed Value Assessment Tool (AIVAT) reduces variance in imperfect-information games through conditional mean-zero corrections, by a median $54\times$ across 15 LLM agent configurations spanning 71,439 paired Heads-Up No-Limit Hold'em (HUNL) hands, but does not say when to stop. We combine AIVAT with continuously monitored Confidence Sequences (CSs) into anytime-valid AIVAT (AV-AIVAT), whose online value model learns only from past games so that no game scores its own correction. At the nominal 95\% level and a target precision of $\pm1$ Big Blind, raw outcomes need a median $74\times$ as many hands as AIVAT-corrected outcomes to stop under the Asymptotic CS (AsympCS). Exact finite-sample certification uses the Empirical-Bernstein CS (EB-CS), which needs an independently justified bound on corrected payoffs. We establish such a bound structurally for Leduc hold'em and characterize a width floor set by the CS's bet cap and that bound, which governs how much of a variance gain becomes earlier stopping; the descriptive HUNL EB-CS runs show a median $1.37\times$ stopping-time ratio. AV-AIVAT turns variance reduction into efficient, auditable early stopping while separating asymptotic screening from exact certification, so an evaluation can stop the moment its evidence suffices and hand a third party everything needed to recheck the verdict at that very stopping time.
Alex Buna, Shirley Xiaoqi Liu, Patrick Rebeschinistat.ML cs.LG
In overparameterised classification, training data can be linearly separable even when the underlying distribution is not. In this setting, gradient descent (GD) on the logistic loss diverges in norm while converging in direction to a max-margin interpolating classifier, whose implicit bias can be statistically suboptimal. In this work, we show that early stopping can overcome this suboptimality: in a Gaussian mixture model with label-flipping noise, GD stopped at an appropriate oracle time achieves minimax-optimal excess zero-one risk for covariance spectra with fast and continuous decay, including polynomial and exponential spectral decays. Our analysis combines a sharp upper bound for the early-stopped iterate with a matching statistical lower bound over arbitrary classifiers, yielding optimal rates that are validated by experiments. A central technical contribution is a new calibration result that converts excess logistic risk into excess zero-one risk; it handles the model misspecification induced by the label-flipping noise, and removes the square-root rate in standard bounds. We also establish a lower bound for linear interpolators, showing that interpolation can require exponentially more samples than early stopping to achieve the same excess risk.
Quentin Luquet de Saint-Germain, Massil Ait Abdeslam, Jean Pierre Davidcs.LG cs.NE
Binary neural networks are very attractive for constrained deployment, enabling small footprint and low-power inference. For binary activations, the dot products become sign-controlled additions or subtractions, but the number of operations is unchanged. Indeed, every neuron or output channel still accumulates all of its input, even though only the sign will be retained, which is often wasteful. As the accumulation progresses, the running partial sum frequently drifts so far from zero that its final sign becomes highly predictable long before the last term is reached; every contribution evaluated after that point changes the value of the sum but not the final output activation. This paper turns this observation into a post-training early-stopping mechanism. We characterize the behavior of the running accumulations on the training dataset and use this information to predict the final sign as soon as possible. No model parameter is retrained. We count the number of operations under an idealized ordering of weights. On VGG11 applied to the CIFAR-10 dataset, the method removes $86.6\%$ of the accumulation terms of the deepest convolution for a $0.37$-point accuracy drop, and $25\%$ of the full-network arithmetic when used on the three deepest convolutions simultaneously, for a $1.36$-point drop.
Rohit Kumar Salla, Manoj Saravanan, Simon Stepputtiscs.LG cs.RO
Diffusion policies are a powerful policy class for continuous control, but their iterative denoising process creates a substantial computational bottleneck. Reducing this cost requires adapting the number of denoising steps to the difficulty of each action while preserving task performance. We introduce Prefix-Optimal Generative Policies (POGP), a framework that learns a prefix value function at every intermediate denoising step through a Bellman-style recursion over the denoising chain. The prefix value function serves two purposes: it provides an auxiliary training objective that encourages intermediate outputs to become high-quality actions, and it enables a test-time stopping rule that terminates denoising when additional steps are unlikely to produce meaningful improvement. Across four MuJoCo environments and comparisons with 12 baselines, POGP reduces the required number of denoising iterations by approximately 2.7-fold while retaining near-full task performance. Compared with state-of-the-art dynamic diffusion baselines, prefix training also improves final task performance by approximately 3.5%. These results indicate that supervising intermediate denoising steps is useful not only for adaptive early stopping, but also as an auxiliary objective that improves the learned policy.
Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) excel on complex tasks through long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, but their lengthy intermediate steps cause severe overthinking that inflates inference cost. KV-cache compression is a common solution, yet existing reasoning-oriented methods apply a uniform policy across the trajectory and judge compression only by what it removes from the cache. Two observations point the other way. First, a reasoning state's tolerance to context loss varies along the trajectory, and process reward tracks it: deleting tokens at high-reward steps preserves accuracy far better than deleting the same budget at random. Second, compression is not free on the generation side, since a smaller cache leads the model to generate more tokens, partly canceling the saving. Together these motivate coordinating both sides under a single process reward. We propose ReCo (Reward-Coordinated Compression), a step-wise framework in which a lightweight process-reward estimator scores each completed step and drives three components: (1) reward-adaptive KV-cache compression that shrinks the retained cache harder at high-reward steps and less at low-reward ones, (2) a reward-banded penalty on reflection tokens that curbs redundant generation, and (3) confidence-based early stopping that triggers when the reasoning is reliable. Across three reasoning models and six benchmarks, ReCo reduces generated tokens by 37%-65% and end-to-end latency by 2.08x-2.35x over Full CoT, all while largely preserving accuracy.
Existing methods for testing deep neural networks (DNNs) primarily prioritize test inputs likely to reveal model faults under a fixed labeling budget. In practice, choosing that budget is difficult: too little testing misses failures, while too much incurs unnecessary labeling costs. This work studies the stopping problem in DNN testing. We formulate testing as a cost--benefit decision process in which labeling an input incurs cost $c$ and discovering a fault yields value $v$. Based on this formulation, we introduce \textit{AdaStop}, a framework that estimates the marginal fault discovery rate during testing and stops labeling when the estimated rate falls below the threshold $τ= c/v$. Experiments across multiple datasets, architectures, and selection strategies show that $65$--$84\%$ of faults can be discovered using only $9$--$31\%$ of the labeling budget.
Multi-agent large language model (LLM) loops, for example a Writer that drafts and a Critic that revises, are almost always terminated by a fixed iteration cap (max_iterations). This is a syntactic kill-switch: it is blind to whether the answer is still improving, so it over-spends tokens on easy inputs and truncates hard ones. We study semantic early-stopping: the loop halts when consecutive draft embeddings stop changing in meaning (cosine distance with a patience window) and the answer's measured quality stops improving. Our work makes three contributions. First, an honest theoretical footing: we prove deterministic termination and well-definedness and machine-check these claims, while treating the convergence of the distance sequence as an empirically tested conjecture rather than a (previously over-claimed) Banach contraction. Second, a judge-efficient evaluation protocol: we generate each question's full trajectory once, replay every stopping policy over the identical drafts, and cache every LLM-judge call, yielding a strictly paired efficiency-versus-quality comparison at low cost; we further separate operational tokens (charged to a policy) from evaluation tokens (a measurement instrument). Third, an empirical study on multi-hop retrieval-augmented question answering (HotpotQA). On the 60-question test split, a judge-free semantic stopper reduces operational tokens by 38% relative to max_iterations at parity quality (Delta-IS = -0.004, p = 0.81), whereas the full quality-gated variant is counter-productive because its per-round judging dominates cost. An oracle that selects the best round attains +0.115 Information Score over every practical policy (p ~ 4e-11), reframing the problem from "when to stop" (easy) to "which round is best" (open).
Self-improvement can self-regress. In REINFORCE post-training for code, a model can quickly improve on its optimized metric and then collapse within the same training campaign. We study this in a controlled multi-seed testbed using Qwen-2.5-3B and Qwen-2.5-7B, trained on competitive-programming tasks with binary CodeGrader reward across 10 sequential 20-step campaigns. Across campaigns, pass@1 shows a robust rise-then-collapse pattern: it peaks within tens of gradient steps and then falls back, sometimes to near zero. This is not cross-task catastrophic forgetting, but within-task policy over-optimization on a fixed distribution; KL- and EWC-style constraints do not prevent it. We ask where the control loop should sit. We compare three levels: CARE, a between-campaign memory mechanism with a capability posterior, transfer gate, and regression-aware belief revision; ES, a within-campaign early-stop rule that rolls forward the peak checkpoint and sets the next budget to peak_step+3; and GRPO, which changes the RL update using group-relative reward normalization. The answer is regime-dependent. On Qwen-2.5-3B, where naive REINFORCE is fragile, CARE v2 nearly doubles end-of-chain pass@1 from 4.9% to 9.5%, with paired bootstrap 95% CI [+0.4,+8.9] and gains in 4/5 seeds. On Qwen-2.5-7B, CARE reaches parity with naive REINFORCE, 13.8% vs. 11.8%, while ES reaches 22.2% [14.1,28.0]. Out-of-the-box GRPO reaches 20.7% [15.7,25.1], nearly matching REINFORCE+ES. GRPO raises the floor but does not remove the cliff. Its 7B gain mainly comes from better between-campaign carryover, while the within-campaign peak-to-end gap remains about 17 points under both REINFORCE and GRPO. GRPO+ES gives mixed evidence: 2/3 seeds improve, but one final cliff lowers the mean to 17.0% [0.0,28.1]. A Gemma-3-4B pilot shows the same signature, suggesting the phenomenon is not limited to Qwen.
Joseph Kalman, Amit Moscovichstat.ME cs.LG stat.ML
Ensemble classifiers are predictive models that combine the results of simpler base models, often by majority vote. A classic example is random forests, which combine the predictions of decision trees. Ensembles that use more base models can be more accurate but also more costly to train and run. In this paper, we consider strategies for reducing the computational cost of binary classification using an approach from the field of sequential testing. Rather than evaluating all the base models and taking a majority vote, we evaluate the base models sequentially and stop execution when a clear majority emerges. We consider three different notions of optimality for early-stopping strategies that minimize the number of base models executed while controlling the rate of disagreement with the full ensemble. For each notion of optimality and allowable disagreement rate, we show that a linear program can be constructed and solved efficiently to find the optimal stopping strategy. We tested these methods on real-world datasets taken from the UC Irvine Machine Learning repository, and on the benchmark datasets proposed by Grinsztajn et al. We found that on most datasets, these methods provide speed-ups of 4x or more while controlling disagreement at 0.1%
By incorporating test-time compute scaling, large reasoning models (LRMs) can solve complex problems through explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning processes. However, they often suffer from overthinking, resulting in redundant token outputs and degraded accuracy. Current methods to mitigate this issue remain limited: training-based approaches require substantial computational resources, while training-free methods rely on well-crafted prompts or unreliable confidence signals. In this work, we investigate early stopping from the perspective of attention distributions and propose a simple method, ASAG, which infers the model's reasoning state and adaptively adjusts the generation strategy. The proposed framework is training-free and plug-and-play, enabling seamless integration into existing LRMs. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements across mainstream LRMs with varying parameter scales, including the DeepSeek-R1-Distill and Qwen3 series. Specifically, ASAG improves average accuracy by 3.2% while reducing the number of generated tokens by nearly 40% across all reasoning tasks on Qwen3-8B.
Parallel test-time scaling samples many reasoning traces and majority-votes their answers, improving LLM accuracy but requiring traces to run to completion, incurring substantial computational overhead. We observe that probing partial traces at intermediate checkpoints can extract current answers without disrupting generation, revealing an evolving aggregate vote. Based on this observation, we introduce MARS, a margin-adversarial stopping rule that estimates which active traces are likely to change their answers and stops once the leader remains safe under a conservative bound on future vote movement. The rule separates two sources of uncertainty. It learns the trace-level switch probabilities that determine how much of the current margin is likely to be retained, while handling the harder question of where switching traces land through an adversarial bound calibrated from warmup traces. With true switch probabilities, MARS guarantees with high probability that the early-stopped answer matches the full-budget vote. In practice, a five-feature logistic model closely matches oracle switching behavior. Across three reasoning models and three competition-math benchmarks, MARS saves 25-47% of self-consistency tokens and 14-29% on top of DeepConf Online, a strong confidence-weighted baseline that already filters and truncates weak traces, while matching the accuracy of the corresponding full-budget baselines.
We ask whether structural properties of intermediate grid states predict whether a symbolic ARC-AGI solver will succeed, framed as a test of conditional mutual information I(X;Y|task) > 0. Across 44,800 runs spanning two architecturally distinct solvers (beam search and Stochastic DFS), 400 ARC tasks, 28 configurations per solver, and both training and evaluation splits, hand-crafted grid descriptors measured at 50% trajectory completion discriminate successful from failed runs within the same task (mean within-task best-feature AUC = 0.885, p < 0.001 under within-task label permutation). Most predictive content lies along a single grid-complexity axis. The result generalizes across solver architectures: a feature selected on one solver predicts success on the other with AUC 0.747-0.762 in all four transfer directions (p < 0.001, leakage controlled). On a pre-registered held-out set of 41 reliable tasks, the frozen feature n_components_final achieves AUC = 0.765 (95% CI [0.717, 0.810], p < 0.001), robust under task-clustered bootstrap resampling and cross-solver task collapsing. The signal is not explained by solver capacity (configuration-residualized AUC = 0.927 and 0.896 for beam search and SDFS, p < 0.001) and is only weakly coupled to score trajectories (R^2 approximately 0). Early stopping at 50% completion reduces beam-search compute by 33.6% while retaining 98.9% of solves; degenerate-trajectory detection reduces SDFS compute by 65.3% with no solve loss. Finally, on 229 of 400 evaluation tasks the DSL primitive library produces no valid transition from the input grid. This 0-step collapse is invariant to search budget and universally failed by beam search, indicating a DSL coverage limitation rather than a search-budget effect.
Guilin Zhang, Chuanyi Sun, Kai Zhao +3cs.LG cs.AI cs.DC
Cloud LLM fine-tuning platforms increasingly serve RLHF workloads, where a learned reward model is optimized as a proxy for human quality. As Gao et al. (2023) showed, this proxy diverges from world feedback (downstream eval metrics) under sustained optimization pressure, a phenomenon known as reward overoptimization. Existing platform schedulers ignore this divergence: non-clairvoyant schedulers optimize JCT without any quality signal, SLAQ-style quality-aware schedulers use training loss (a weaker proxy that drops monotonically through hacking), and classical per-job early stopping requires human monitoring and does not free shared GPUs. We propose EvalStop, a composable scheduling primitive that terminates jobs on k consecutive eval-score declines, releases GPUs, preserves the best checkpoint, and delegates to any base scheduler. We frame scheduler-level early stopping as a detection problem and evaluate it in a discrete-event simulator whose RLHF workload mixes reward-hacking and structurally healthy runs, with ground-truth labels hidden from schedulers. On RLHF-heavy workloads (80% RLHF, 64 GPUs), EvalStop achieves precision 98% / recall 99% / FPR 1.5% while improving JCT by 9% and cutting wasted compute by 22% over SRTF-Est (p<0.05). Trivial fixed-progress and loss-plateau competitors either incur 65% FPR on healthy RLHF or miss over half of true hacking cases. Gains compose across every base scheduler tested (9-25% JCT) and detection quality stays stable under eval noise (precision at least 91% at noise std <= 0.05) and hacking base rate (precision at least 89% across 20-80% hacking fractions).
Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) is highly sensitive to hyperparameter configurations, making hyperparameter optimization (HPO) essential yet computationally expensive. Existing multi-fidelity HPO methods remain inefficient for LLM RL due to the massive model scale and resource-intensive training cycles. In this paper, we propose Joint Fidelity Hyperparameter Optimization (JF-HPO), which simultaneously adapts both model size and training budget as fidelity. JF-HPO is empowered by: (i) it leverages a small proxy model of the target LLM for efficient training and evaluation in each HPO trial; (ii) it integrates carefully designed early-stopping strategies based on training dynamics; (iii) it introduces an efficient checkpointing mechanism to eliminate redundant computations. Compared with existing HPO methods, JF-HPO significantly improves the computational efficiency of each trial (up to 14.9 times), while achieving better or competitive predictive accuracy under the same time budget. Notably, compared with utilizing hyperparameter configurations from the VeRL Recipe, JF-HPO delivers performance improvements ranging from 5.8% to 111.6%.
Gradient boosted decision trees require a stopping rule to avoid overfitting. The standard rule monitors a validation loss and stops if the loss fails to improve for a fixed patience period. However, the patience parameter has no interpretable scale and validation losses can be noisy or implicitly defined by a user-specified gradient. We propose ScoreStop, a gradient-based early-stopping rule that casts the stopping decision at each iteration as a test of the null hypothesis that the current predictor is the population risk minimizer. We use a functional score test, computed on validation data, with a statistic that is scale-invariant in the update direction, with a known asymptotic distribution under the null. Because our test uses gradients rather than loss values, the same construction applies to implicit losses such as LambdaRank, and data-dependent losses such as Cox regression via influence functions. In synthetic experiments and real-data benchmarks, we show that ScoreStop is competitive with loss-based methods.