Real-time probabilistic tsunami forecasting via generative AI

Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries. Consequently, current warnings primarily target coastal tsunami height, not onshore inundation. Although machine learning enables instant inundation predictions, they remain deterministic, lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, we develop a probabilistic ensemble model based on a conditional diffusion model (a type of generative AI) that reconciles accuracy with calibration. Validated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake data, our model faithfully tracks the postearthquake uncertainty decreasing over time while accurately predicting inundation depth and extent. Our framework shows that generative AI can shift tsunami forecasting from determinism to probabilism, providing a foundation for next-generation early warning.

SIREN: Towards End-to-End Extreme-Weather Early Warning with Experience-Grounded LLM Agents

Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events. However, expert-centered warning workflows are costly, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale throughout the warning-to-action process. Although recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM) agents have enabled the automation of weather-related tasks, existing studies remain centered on isolated scientific tasks and overlook the chain of interdependent processes required for operational extreme-weather early warning. To bridge this gap, this study investigates automated end-to-end extreme-weather early warning through LLM agents. We first develop SIREN-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 600 question-answer instances across 19 tasks, and covering four individual warning procedures and an end-to-end warning chain. Evaluation on SIREN-Bench reveals substantial capability gaps in existing weather agent frameworks. This motivates us to develop SIREN, an experience-grounded agent framework inspired by experts' use of historical cases, which combines an agentic execution environment integrating heterogeneous weather evidence and tools with a family of agent harnesses that exploit historical cases through retrieval, skill distillation, and predictive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SIREN outperforms weather-agent baselines on both individual warning procedures and end-to-end warning chains.

Regime-Aware Physics-Guided Early Warning of Lithium-Ion Battery Thermal Runaway Using Thermo-Mechanical Signals

Thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries poses a major safety risk to electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Current early-warning methods depend mainly on temperature and may therefore miss mechanical precursors that emerge before rapid heating. We introduce a regime-aware, physics-guided framework that integrates temperature, voltage, force, deformation, and state-of-charge measurements for early warning under controlled mechanical abuse. A lightweight convolutional classifier first infers safe, warning, or danger regimes from mechanical signals. These regime estimates then condition a causal temporal convolutional backbone through feature-wise linear modulation, physics-biased attention, and regime-dependent gating. Joint learning unifies regime identification, thermal-runaway detection, and time-to-disaster estimation. We evaluate the framework using leave-one-experiment-out cross-validation on 30 mechanical-abuse tests across state-of-charge levels of 10%, 50%, and 90% and two loading protocols. The method achieves an F1 score of 0.89, a high-temperature prediction root-mean-square error of 12.3 °C, a mean warning lead time of 15.6 s, a detection success rate of 0.92, and an experiment-level false alarm rate of 2.7%. Its lead time exceeds that of the strongest baseline by 69.6%. Removing force reduces the lead time by 60.3%, highlighting the value of mechanical precursors. These results support regime-aware thermo-mechanical fusion as a promising strategy for earlier and more reliable thermal-runaway warning under controlled abuse conditions.

Infrared Hotspot-Guided Early Warning of Lithium-Ion Battery Thermal Runaway Under Mechanical Abuse

Mechanical abuse can trigger thermal runaway (TR) in lithium-ion batteries through localized heat generation before sensor signals become decisive. This paper proposes a two-stage early-warning approach that estimates localized thermal instability from infrared hotspot dynamics and then fuses this instability score with mechanical, electrical, thermal, and image-intensity features for a 20-frame warning horizon. Evaluation uses repeated experiment-wise three-fold validation, with out-of-fold Stage-I scores during Stage-II training to prevent stacked-model optimism. Hotspot dynamics alone achieve Stage-I ROC-AUC 0.945, and the two-stage classifier reaches Stage-II ROC-AUC 0.908, exceeding direct multimodal fusion while preserving an interpretable intermediate instability signal. Thermal gradient rise precedes voltage-based detection by 40 frames (4 seconds) on average, enabling earlier battery management system intervention. Lead-time analysis at a fixed 0.5 threshold yields a 14.8-frame mean lead time.

SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics for Geographic Tipping Point Early Warning

Geographic tipping points in ecosystems, climate subsystems, or ice sheets pose severe challenges for localized early warning. Classical spatial indicators such as Moran's I summarize global spatial structure, but they struggle with three issues: spatial dilution, Euclidean assumptions, and correlated noise. This paper introduces SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics (ST-CND), a framework that addresses these three issues by representing the geographic field as a time-evolving directed causal network. The core workflow is as follows: (1) infer which spatial nodes help predict other nodes via transfer entropy, replacing fixed Euclidean neighborhoods with data-driven information-flow topology; (2) estimate local recovery rates within each candidate subnetwork via dynamic mode decomposition; and (3) identify the most vulnerable subnetwork by combining three signals, namely high internal fluctuation, high internal synchronization, and low external coupling, thereby suppressing false alarms from spatially correlated noise. Validated on synthetic bifurcations and two observational sea-surface temperature benchmarks, namely Indo-Pacific SST and North Atlantic AMOC, ST-CND delivers localized and interpretable warnings. On the AMOC task, it achieves an AUROC of 0.783 and a critical-subnetwork IoU of 0.378, outperforming recurrence-network and lambda-AR1 baselines. The framework provides an interpretable and scalable pipeline for spatial early warning in Earth system science.

Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series

Accurate early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental observations is essential for timely intervention and more sustainable crop protection. However, many existing studies formulate disease prediction as daily presence classification, which can favor persistence-driven predictions and provide only limited support for actionable short-horizon warning. In this paper, we present an event-based approach for early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental time series and evaluate it through a vineyard case study. Rather than predicting daily disease status, the task is reformulated to predict transitions into annotated disease-risk periods within a future window of 3-7 days. To reduce fragmentation caused by short interruptions in the binary labels, new events are defined only after a minimum disease-free gap. This formulation encourages models to capture environmental precursors associated with upcoming risk periods instead of merely reproducing temporal persistence. Using multi-year agro-meteorological data, we construct input representations that capture humidity dynamics, rainfall accumulation, temperature variability, and seasonal structure through cyclic temporal encoding. We evaluate representative methods from classical machine learning and deep learning, including XGBoost, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), using both standard classification metrics and an event-oriented early warning protocol. The results show that the event-based formulation supports practical short-horizon warning, while the compared models exhibit distinct trade-offs between event recall, lead time, and false-alert behavior. Overall, the study underscores the importance of problem formulation in environmental time-series learning and demonstrates the value of event-based prediction for vineyard disease warning systems.