Conditional Diffusion Models for Energy-Efficient Driving

Electrification of commercial delivery fleets is shifting fleet routing from distance- and time-based optimization toward energy-aware decision-making. Existing sequence models primarily provide deterministic point estimates or limited uncertainty summaries, which do not capture the range of plausible energy-consumption trajectories required for operational decision-making. In this work, we introduce a conditional diffusion framework that generates EV battery-current profiles conditioned on route features such as vehicle velocity and ambient temperature. The model combines a latent conditioning encoder with a temporal 1D U-Net denoising backbone that enables trip-related conditions to be mapped into a shared representation and guides the reverse diffusion process. We evaluate the framework on an open-access commercial EV telemetry dataset containing 12k trips from 9 vehicles. The proposed latent-conditioned diffusion model generates realistic cur- rent trajectories that capture both the dominant temporal envelope and sharp transient events. The model achieves a Wasserstein distance of 0.0029 between generated and measured current distributions below the real vs real reference distance of 0.0085 indicating that generated samples lie within the empirical variability of the test set. We further demonstrate that learned latent conditioning substantially improves performance over direct condition injection, reducing the Wasserstein distance by 89.1% and MAE by 52.8%. This work demonstrates a generative modeling framework for characterizing EV energy consumption under real-world operating conditions, providing an essential foundation for uncertainty-aware fleet planning in large-scale operational settings.

Quantifying the Gap Between Laboratory Battery Test Patterns and Field Duty Profiles

Laboratory battery tests provide the main empirical basis for battery performance and degradation studies, but their operating patterns do not directly represent field duty profiles. This paper quantifies the gap by comparing six accessible evidence sources covering controlled cycling, drive-cycle testing, dynamic cycling, NMC811 laboratory ageing, a real electric-vehicle charging trace, and fleet-scale electric-vehicle state-of-health (SOH) data. The analysis combines usage frequency, usage intensity, usage C-rate, and a duty-structure index (DSI) based on normalized current dispersion and ramping. The representative single-segment DSI ranges from 0.630 for the field source trace and 0.699 for NASA to 2.936 for Oxford and 2.855 for Imperial, while usage C-rate ranges from 0.14-0.40 for Imperial, NASA, Stanford, and Hyundai to 2.00 for Oxford. Long-term ageing also differs: the 80 percent retention region occurs near 351 NASA cycles, 6292 Oxford checkpoints, and 1019 Stanford cycles. In chemistry-aligned NMC/NCM evidence, Imperial retains 0.813 under standard cycling and 0.865 under drive-cycle ageing, while the field source has median SOH 0.889 with visible dispersion. Field operation further shows a median use intensity of 137.2 km/day and 56.9 percent of charges ending at or above 95 percent SOC. These results show that battery performance metrics are conditional on the duty pattern that generated them; application-oriented studies should report explicit duty-profile descriptors together with chemistry, capacity, and ageing metrics.

Robostreet Flow: A Lightweight, Ultra-Low-Drag Electric Tractor and Four-Truck Hybrid Convoy Architecture for Minimum-Cost Point-to-Point Freight

Line-haul trucking costs are dominated by three comparably sized components: energy, driver labor, and equipment. Most efficiency technologies address only one component at a time. This paper presents Robostreet Flow, a freight architecture that jointly optimizes the vehicle, convoy formation, and operating model to minimize cost per ton-mile on high-volume point-to-point corridors. The Flow platform is a battery-electric 6x4 tractor with a teardrop single-seat cab and a drag coefficient of 0.35, approximately 40% below that of conventional Class 8 tractors. A carbon-composite monocoque and structurally integrated batteries reduce net vehicle weight by 50%. A 513 kWh tractor battery and a 340 kWh powered trailer battery provide a 500-mile single-charge range. Four Flow trucks operate as a coordinated convoy with a safety driver only in the lead vehicle, while three followers operate in SAE Level 4 automated mode. Computational fluid dynamics simulations show that close following at an 8 m gap reduces follower drag coefficients by 42-48% and follower peak frontal pressure by approximately a factor of four relative to the exposed lead vehicle. A longitudinal energy model calibrated to these results predicts fleet-average consumption of 1.27 kWh/mi in convoy, compared with 1.60 kWh/mi for an isolated vehicle, for a 20.5% energy saving. Electricity cost is approximately 17% of the equivalent diesel fuel cost. Amortizing one driver across four trucks and accounting for the additional payload enabled by lightweighting reduce operating cost from 9.4 to 4.1 cents per ton-mile, a 56% reduction relative to a diesel baseline. Sensitivity analysis, a hub-to-hub operating concept, and regulatory implications are also presented.

Probabilistic Physics-Aware Machine Learning Predictions of Electric Truck Energy Consumption with Field Data

In this work, we incorporate first principle physics into the construction of data-driven methods by considering a model that accounts for the different sources of energy losses during vehicle operations. Our results show that Bayesian linear regression based on this physics-aware model can improve the reliability of the expected energy consumption, as compared with standard linear regression. Further, it is shown that more complex machine learning models such as neural networks and gradient boosted regression trees, based on the same physical model, can further improve the accuracy in energy forecasting and significantly outperform standard versions of the same machine learning models. In addition to point predictions of the energy consumption, we develop a framework for estimating the corresponding uncertainty in the form of predicted standard deviation. Our results show that all of the models learn to estimate the uncertainty reasonably well.

On-Device Adaptive Battery Power Prediction for Electric Vehicles

Adaptive power management in Electric Vehicles (EVs) requires accurate power prediction. Although deep learning models have emerged as highly effective for time-series forecasting in this domain, their performance is prone to degradation when exposed to data with distributions different from the training data. We introduce a novel approach that enables on-device learning in resource-constrained EV systems to continuously adapt pretrained battery prediction models to new, unseen data. We leverage existing pretrained models by transforming them into adaptable versions that retain critical hyperparameter knowledge from their initial training. We comprehensively investigate both online and offline model adaptation strategies. Our results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting performance across various models and time horizons, achieving mean absolute error reductions of up to 7.49\% and 14.88\% with online and offline adaptation techniques, respectively. This study highlights the substantial benefit of on-device adaptation, resulting in enhanced battery power predictions than unadapted model deployments in real-world EV scenarios.

Incentive-Aligned Vehicle-to-Vehicle Energy Trading via Nash-Integrated Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) energy trading enables decentralized peer-to-peer energy exchange among electric vehicles (EVs), reducing grid dependency while monetizing surplus capacity. However, coordinating self-interested EV agents with diverse charging needs and uncertain arrival-departure schedules remains challenging. Existing approaches either require centralized optimization with computational limitations or lack fairness guarantees. This paper integrates Nash Bargaining Solution into Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, namely Nash-MADDPG, for incentive-aligned V2V energy trading. Nash bargaining determines efficient bilateral pricing, while Nash-guided price proximity rewards align agent learning toward bargaining-optimal strategies. Evaluation over 30-day continuous operation demonstrates an improvement of 61.6% in social welfare and 62.9% improvement in trading volume over Double Auction, while achieving superior fairness, such as 40.1% improvement in Jain's index. Testing across 6-100 agents over a 30-day horizon with continuous vehicle turnover confirms scalability across population size and empirically stable pricing near the Nash Bargaining benchmark.

Automated Byzantine-Resilient Clustered Decentralized Federated Learning for Battery Intelligence in Connected EVs

Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for managing electric vehicle (EV) battery data in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), enabling privacy-preserving tasks such as anomaly detection and capacity estimation. However, most existing frameworks rely on centralized aggregation schemes, which pose critical limitations in terms of security and trust. To address these challenges, we propose ABC-DFL, an automated Byzantine-resilient clustered decentralized federated learning (C-DFL) framework for connected EVs. The proposed incentive-driven C-DFL system replaces the central server with an open-permissioned blockchain, featuring a new dynamic Quorum Byzantine Fault Tolerance (QBFT) protocol and an oracle-based aggregation layer, to enhance trust, security, and automation. At the core of ABC-DFL lies FLECA (Filtered Layered Enhanced Clustering Aggregation), a robust hierarchical aggregation protocol that mitigates Byzantine attacks by having each EV filter malicious updates using an adaptive threshold based on deviations from its reference model update. Oracle nodes, responsible for inter-group aggregation, employ robust clustering to isolate and aggregate model updates from trustworthy EV groups. Comprehensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that FLECA matches FedProx convergence under benign conditions and significantly outperforms existing defenses with attack impact scores below 0.10 in adaptive adversarial scenarios. Furthermore, several learning experiments with multitask models confirm the effectiveness and fairness of the incentive mechanism. Finally, on-chain and off-chain benchmarks validate the practicality of ABC-DFL.