Grounded, Compute-Efficient LLM Policy Agents for Energy-Poverty Equity in Physically-Constrained Peer-to-Peer Energy Markets

Energy poverty is nearly absent from NLP-for-social-good, and the little existing work is either static retrieval/QA or relies on carbon-intensive cloud LLMs, a self-defeating "computational irony" for a humanitarian setting. We present EqGrid, a closed-loop simulation in which a low-frequency, open-weight LLM policy agent sets price and carbon bounds and targeted subsidies over a community of empirically-grounded household personas, while high-frequency multi-agent RL traders clear a continuous double auction constrained by a physical distribution grid (IEEE-33-bus with Dynamic Operating Envelopes). Our contribution is threefold and directly addresses how to measure the social impact of AI: (i) grounded personas (region-matched socio-demographics) whose load curves are checked for shape and level realism against real smart-meter data; (ii) formal energy-poverty equity metrics (Energy Burden, Gini of EB, LIHC) showing the intervention reduces burden inequality without raising net grid cost; and (iii) a compute-efficiency frontier that measures how much equity performance survives compressing the policy agent from a 235B teacher down to a sub-1B model deployable on a laptop, in estimated energy/carbon per decision. A decoupled-safety design (the LLM sets bounds; a validate-and-project grid gate executes) yields zero grid-constraint violations versus 55 under direct LLM control. On energy-poverty equity, the LLM policy lowers the Gini of energy burden to 0.305 (from 0.351) and mean burden by 28% while cutting cost (outperforming a tuned rule baseline), and a 3B-active model retains 95% of the benefit at roughly 9x lower inference energy than the teacher, with even a 0.8B on-device model retaining 92% at roughly 24x lower energy. We will release code and configs.

Foundation models for electricity price forecasting and battery arbitrage: Can they replace market-specific forecasting models?

Foundation models promise accurate forecasts with little or no task-specific training, but whether they can replace models designed specifically for electricity price forecasting remains unclear. We compare nine variants from five foundation model families, evaluated in zero-shot mode, with two state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting benchmarks in Germany, Poland, and Spain over 2021-2025. Their performance is assessed in terms of point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy, as well as economic value in battery energy storage arbitrage. Only the TabPFN models consistently and significantly outperform the benchmarks across all three markets and all statistical measures. However, this statistical dominance does not translate directly into economic dominance: TabPFN performs best under unlimited bids and riskier quantile-based strategies, whereas the Distributional Deep Neural Network benchmark is more profitable when risk tolerance is lower. Thus, foundation models cannot universally replace market-specific models, and their value depends on both model architecture and the decision problem.

SolarChain-Eval: A Physics-Constrained Benchmark for Trustworthy Economic Agents in Decentralized Energy Markets

As agentic AI systems are increasingly applied to cyber-physical environments, their evaluation requires assessment of both task performance and trustworthiness. In decentralized energy markets, autonomous agents may improve market utility, but may also exploit invalid physical data, create artificial liquidity, and produce unstable governance decisions. Therefore, we propose SolarChain-Eval, a physics-constrained benchmark for evaluating trustworthy economic agents. It formulates market governance as a Gymnasium-compatible Markov Decision Process, where agents make hourly decisions. SolarChain-Eval evaluates each policy across multiple dimensions, including market utility, physical safety, slippage, action smoothness, spatial fairness, and auditability. To support agentic evaluation, SolarChain-Eval incorporates an LLM-based Planner/Auditor layer. The Planner defines episode-level action bounds and audit rules, while the Auditor reviews and revises high-risk actions. All interventions are recorded through structured logs, including trigger signals, proposed actions, revised actions, and audit rationales. Experiments with static, random, myopic, RL, and RL+LLM policies reveal a clear utility-safety trade-off. RL agents improve market utility but can still produce unsafe behavior. When the physics penalty is removed, reward-maximizing agents exploit invalid generation and increase artificial liquidity. The LLM Planner/Auditor improves auditability and mitigates selected risks, but it cannot fully compensate for a misspecified reward function. These results indicate that trustworthy agentic AI evaluation requires both physical constraints and transparent intervention traces. We release data and code as open access on GitHub for replicability.

Market Strategy Evaluation for Prosumers in Local Electricity Markets

Prosumers equipped with distributed generation and flexible loads form autonomous cyber-physical energy systems that control local resources and participate in local energy markets with minimal human intervention. This work develops and evaluates an agent-based simulation platform in which agents, representing prosumer households with photovoltaic systems, battery storage systems, electric vehicles, and heat pumps, participate in a uniform-price double-sided call auction. The effect of individual bidding strategies on community-level efficiency and prosumer-level financial outcomes is incompletely understood, particularly when prosumers with heterogeneous portfolios interact in one market. Four market strategies of increasing complexity are compared: a zero-intelligence constrained baseline, a boundary-price strategy, an extended storage cascade, and a market-adaptive pricing strategy. The simulation is conducted on a community of 33 prosumers at 15-minute resolution, spanning summer, winter, and spring to characterize seasonal variation. Results show that rule-based resource control substantially reduces community energy expenditure: the extended storage cascade achieves a total cost of 39.06 EUR compared to 62.38 EUR under the zero-intelligence baseline, a reduction of 37.4 %. The market-adaptive strategy yields the highest aggregate community financial gain through local energy market participation (14.40 EUR vs. 10.28 EUR for the baseline, a gain of 40.1 %) under summer conditions. Strategy effectiveness depends on both portfolio composition and seasonal supply conditions, requiring joint evaluation of resource control and pricing decisions.

Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the critical need for updated models, a unified benchmark evaluating feature contributions across all structurally diverse Norwegian bidding zones remains lacking. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of electricity price forecasting across all five Norwegian Nord Pool bidding zones. We constructed a multimodal hourly dataset spanning 2019--2025 and evaluated eight forecasting model families including LightGBM, ARX, and advanced deep learning architectures using a strictly causal test set. We implemented robust rolling-origin backtesting, leave-one-group-out feature ablation, and conditional regime analysis to dissect model performance and feature utility. Our results show that LightGBM achieves the best performance in every zone with MAE ranging from 1.64 to 5.74~EUR/MWh, while the ridge ARX model remains a highly competitive linear benchmark in northern zones. Feature ablation reveals that models relying solely on lagged prices and calendar variables achieve high accuracy and often match or exceed full multimodal integration. However, conditional regime analysis demonstrates that external features like reservoir levels and gas prices remain crucial to stratify forecast errors, which consistently increase under stressed market regimes. This highlights the practical value of model interpretability and regime awareness for decision makers facing structural changes in market dynamics.