Differentiable Electricity-Market Clearing for Gradient-Based Planning

Planning a large data center is difficult because a facility big enough to matter changes the electricity prices it will pay. Those prices are set by market clearing, a constrained optimization problem solved anew in every operating condition. However, simulating the market tells a planner how a candidate plan performs but not how to improve it. Here we treat market clearing as a differentiable optimization layer: each forward pass solves the market, and reverse-mode automatic differentiation propagates the planning cost back through the cleared prices to the plan. After validating these gradients against finite differences, we apply them to a concrete problem: allocating 50 MW of data-center load across six candidate buses in two synthetic networks, under a fixed cost per active site, evaluated over 36 operating states. Judged against exhaustive enumeration of all site combinations, gradient optimization recovers the continuous allocations almost exactly, with worst-case objective gaps of 2.3\% and 8.5\% of the cost difference between the best and worst single site. Its one systematic error is instructive: near the costs at which a site should close, the smooth relaxation of the discrete site count shrinks the site rather than closing it, so discrete transitions arrive late. Differentiable market clearing thus turns market-aware planning into a problem gradients can search.

A-CPES: A Reference Framework for Agentic AI in Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Energy system operation contains a loop of work that automation has never taken over: posing the optimization problem the current cycle should solve, disposing of infeasibility, sequencing a solution into interlocked switching orders, assembling evidence no single model holds, negotiating adjustable capacity with many parties, and settling experience into practice. Licensed dispatchers carry all of it in person, and the rising share of variable renewable generation is making that loop turn faster than their number can grow. Agentic AI supplies the abilities it requires, but enters as the outer loop of control: it calls SCED and the other decision models rather than being called by them. We propose A-CPES, three nested rings, an authorization and accountability frame around an agentic control outer loop around a six-layer CPES core. We argue the loop is indivisible, tune where and how tightly it may close, state eight structural failure modes as falsifiable predictions, and specify six governance modules that rebuild the authorization frame until it covers the loop, before the loop starts turning.

Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS for Zero-Shot Probabilistic Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks

District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Conventional forecasting workflows train system-specific models on historical data, which can become burdensome when networks change through new consumers, retrofits, or changing operating regimes. Zero-shot time-series foundation models and in-context forecasting offer a promising alternative: they can adapt at inference time from recent observations rather than by repeated retraining. This study systematically evaluates TabPFN-TS against time-series foundation models and trained machine-learning baselines for probabilistic heat load forecasting in district heating networks. Unlike foundation models pretrained on large collections of real time series, TabPFN-TS relies on synthetic pretraining data, which avoids direct pretraining-test overlap but raises the question of whether the learned prior captures district heating dynamics. We analyze covariate choice, context length, temporal resolution, and prediction horizon on representative operating weeks, validate the selected configuration over a full year, and test transferability on a second network. The results identify hourly 24-hour forecasting with a 12-week rolling context and ambient temperature as a parsimonious high-performing configuration; longer context windows do not improve accuracy. TabPFN-TS remains close to Chronos-2 in deterministic accuracy, reaching CVRMSE values of 13.06% versus 12.48% on the main dataset, and lies within the critical-difference threshold in the daily-rank comparison. Although Chronos-2 achieves the lowest aggregate full-year error, TabPFN-TS shows better empirical calibration. Finally, the diagnostic findings motivate a Multi-Resolution Residual-Correction Forecaster that combines a low-frequency Base Forecaster with a short-horizon Residual Forecaster to improve longer-horizon planning accuracy.

Optimizing Multi-Market Participation of Battery and Electrolyser Systems Based on Field Performance

The increasing share of renewable energy in power systems creates a need for fast-response and flexible resources to maintain system stability. With the expansion of electricity markets and ancillary service products, opportunities arise to stack revenues across multiple services. Long-term Power-to-X (PTX) electrolysers and short-term battery energy storage systems (BESS) are prevalent flexible resources, yet most studies neglect real hardware behavior, such as ramp limits, efficiency, and setpoint-tracking accuracy. This work presents experimental and modeling results for a 55 kW/79 kWh BESS and an electrolyser comprising three 2.4 kW units. Key characteristics are identified through measurements and embedded into a price-driven optimization framework for participation in the Danish electricity and ancillary service markets, utilizing real market data from 2022 to 2025. The optimized daily profits for multi-market participation are 1,749.27 DKK and 289.46 DKK for the BESS and electrolyser, respectively. With the demonstrated business cases for BESS and PTX systems, this work highlights the importance of incorporating experimental performance when evaluating participation across multiple markets and years.

XGBoost "is all you need": the case of forecasting transmitted heat energy in District Heating Systems

This paper presents a comparative study of two distinct approaches, XGBoost and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), for forecasting transmitted heat energy in District Heating Systems (DHS). The objective is to explore scenarios in which conventional ML algorithms demonstrate better performance over deep learning networks in time series forecasting and the associated benefits in terms of computational cost and environmental impact. The study focuses on a real-world DHS dataset. Through experimentation and analysis, it is demonstrated that XGBoost consistently outperforms LSTM in this specific forecasting task. The difference is explained by the error distribution illustrating that LSTM makes more significant errors in the intervals of less data availability. The reduced computational demands of conventional ML approaches not only result in cost savings but also minimize the carbon footprint associated with data analysis tasks in energy systems.

An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting

Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts are needed for low-carbon energy systems, but newly deployed sites often have short, imperfect records. This makes standard day-ahead forecasting difficult: persistence and physical baselines can be sensitive to calibration and timestamp alignment, while single machine-learning models may capture only one structure in the data and overstate skill under non-temporal validation. We study this problem at a United Kingdom charging-station site, where PV forecast errors affect charging availability, storage scheduling, and downstream control. Using measured inverter output and publicly available meteorological inputs, we develop a deployment-oriented environmental-AI pipeline for day-ahead hourly PV forecasting. The pipeline corrects timestamp conventions, constructs leakage-safe solar-geometry and clearness-index features, adds short-term atmospheric context, and combines complementary predictors through validation-learned stacking. Against smart persistence, a clear-sky baseline that adjusts recent PV output using expected clear-sky irradiance, the best ensemble reduces daylight normalised RMSE by about 32% under random day-blocked evaluation and 9% under the stricter rolling-origin protocol. It also reduces daylight RMSE relative to the strongest individual machine-learning baseline by 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively. The results show that physics-aware stacking can support PV forecasts from limited site data, but its value depends on model class, evaluation protocol, and deployment context.

FMOPF: Latent Flow Matching with Constraint-Aware Interaction Priors for AC Optimal Power Flow

AC optimal power flow determines the minimum-cost generation dispatch under nonlinear power balance constraints and is solved thousands of times daily in electricity market operations. Learning a direct mapping from load conditions to OPF solutions can accelerate this computation, yet with deepening renewable penetration, a single optimal dispatch is no longer sufficient. Operators require a characterization of the distribution of feasible near-optimal solutions for risk quantification, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective trade-off assessment. Supervised neural networks provide fast point predictions but cannot capture this conditional distribution. Diffusion-based generative models can sample diverse solutions in principle, yet existing methods operating in the raw state space exhibit degraded solution quality and fail to scale beyond medium-sized systems. We identify the root cause as the conflation of two distinct tasks within a single model. Compressing the high-dimensional OPF solution manifold is one task, and learning the conditional mapping from loads to that manifold is another. This paper presents FMOPF, a framework that resolves this conflation by decoupling compression from generation through latent flow matching and by explicitly modeling load-state coupling through a Constraint-Aware Interaction Prior Network. Experiments on four IEEE test systems demonstrate that FMOPF provides the most effective Newton-Raphson warm starts, achieves the lowest tail risk among generative methods, and is the first such method to scale to systems with several hundred buses while preserving full feasibility. Ablation studies confirm that the latent generation pipeline is a necessary condition for physical feasibility and that the interaction prior functions as a late-stage tail-risk controller.

Automated Extraction of Techno-Economic Data from 76,000 Energy System Studies

Energy system models guide societally important decisions, but their credibility rests on quantitative assumptions that are difficult to source and audit. Meta-analyses can improve transparency and modeling practices, but the rapid growth of publications makes manual information extraction increasingly impractical. Consequently, databases are updated infrequently and efforts are often duplicated across research groups. Here, we demonstrate the highly accurate automated extraction of quantitative information from 76,000 energy system studies published since 2010. We compile 3.2 million structured quantitative data points together with 20 million associated metadata entries, spanning a broad spectrum of technologies, methodological approaches and system characteristics. Beyond providing input data for models, the resulting FAIR database make the energy systems literature itself analysable. We show where academic assumptions diverge from empirical observed data, and how research priorities vary at scale across technologies, regions and time. To facilitate broad use within the community, the database is provided through an interactive dashboard, enabling users to filter, analyse and download data according to their specific research needs.

A Phased Development Framework Enabling Islanded Operation of Sustainable AI Data Centers With Onsite Grid-Following and Grid-Forming Energy Architectures

As hyperscale and colocation AI data centers continue to expand, the electric grid is increasingly required to support large, concentrated loads, with individual facilities ranging from 500 MW to 2 GW. Current projections estimate that approximately 50 GW of AI data center capacity will require grid connectivity in the United States by 2030. While prior research has extensively examined the environmental and operational impacts of AI data centers, as well as their potential role as grid-interactive assets, limited attention has been given to the challenges associated with their scalable deployment through engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) processes. This manuscript addresses this gap by proposing a phased development framework for AI data center expansion. The approach is designed to enable developers to meet aggressive time-to-market objectives while navigating multi-year constraints associated with interconnection approvals and lead times associated with the procurement of component equipment. A modular construction architecture is presented, along with a detailed analysis of integrated energy systems and the role of hybrid on-site generation in supporting incremental capacity growth. Electromagnetic transient simulations (EMT) are used to evaluate system performance, demonstrating that a combination of on-site natural gas generation and grid-forming energy storage can reliably support data center operations during early and intermediate deployment phases. The study further examines the transition to full grid interconnection, including the capability of the data center to operate in islanded mode during grid disturbances. Finally, the manuscript compares grid-forming control strategies for system reconnection and restoration under varying conditions.

Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements. In the present study, we provide an extensive evaluation of short-term net load forecasts of 200 real-world low-voltage feeders with a focus on the rapidly evolving time series foundation models. Our study compares Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS to six baseline models and demonstrates superior performance, in particular for Chronos-2. An ablation study, in which weather covariates are omitted, shows that time series foundation models adapt to increased uncertainty, despite the importance of weather information. A novel application-oriented metric links the model's forecasting capabilities in peak prediction to the trade-off in grid asset planning and operation between cost reduction and minimizing the risk of failure.

Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series

Power forecasting models deployed in real-world energy markets must operate under nonstationary conditions, where data distributions continually evolve due to weather variability, infrastructure upgrades, and changing consumption behaviors. In practice, these models face strict operational constraints: historical data may be limited or unavailable for repeated retraining, and uninterrupted long-term service is often required. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing the paradigm of Continuous Power Forecasting, which views power forecasting as a continual learning problem rather than a static offline task. Based on an adaptive continual learning framework for regression, we systematically investigate the practical effectiveness of six representative continual learning approaches from three methodological categories. These approaches are evaluated under different realistic assumptions regarding data accessibility and update policies. Experimental validation on real-world power datasets demonstrates that continual learning enables forecasting models to self-adapt to distributional drift, accumulate knowledge over time, and mitigate catastrophic forgetting without relying on large-scale historical data storage. Beyond performance gains, our study provides practical insights into the stability and adaptation behaviors of different continual learning approaches under realistic operational constraints. Overall, this work illustrates how continual learning can be pragmatically integrated into industrial power forecasting pipelines, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for long-term deployment in dynamic environments.

FlowGuard: Flow Matching for Identity-Independent Detection of Data-Free Model Stealing Attacks on Energy System Intrusion Detection Systems

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) deployed in energy infrastructure are vulnerable to model theft attacks, which allow adversaries to create evasive traffic offline. Current defences against model extraction rely either on identity-bound query monitoring, which is ineffective against distributed attackers (Sybil), or on prediction poisoning through soft-label perturbation, which is inapplicable to hard-label IDS deployments. Therefore, we propose FlowGuard, an identity-independent defence based on flow matching that classifies incoming queries as out-of-distribution (OOD) prior to IDS processing. This approach exploits the fact that queries generated synthetically for data-free model stealing attacks occupy a lower-dimensional manifold than real network traffic. This results in measurably lower log-likelihoods when using a Continuous Normalizing Flow that has been trained on legitimate data. We evaluate our method against PRADA and FDINet using MAZE and DisGUIDE attacks in single-client and distributed (100-client Sybil) settings. While PRADA's detection rate dropped to 0% when the distribution changed, our defence maintained a stable detection rate across both settings without relying on identity information. We discuss the scope and limitations of the approach, and outline potential applications to data-dependent attacks.

Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

A Grid-Aware Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Electric Vehicle Charging Systems

This paper presents a configurable, grid-aware Agent-Based Model (ABM) for the systematic analysis of electric vehicle (EV) charging systems under configurable infrastructure and operational conditions. The model integrates heterogeneous EV behavior, charging column constraints, and a shared Energy Sandbox that regulates aggregate power allocation, enabling the joint study of user-centric charging dynamics and facility-level power behavior. Implemented in Python using the SimPy discrete-event framework, the approach supports scalable, event-driven simulations across varying system sizes, charger compositions, and scheduling strategies. A representative workplace charging scenario is investigated to illustrate how infrastructure configuration and coordination mechanisms influence energy delivery performance, infrastructure utilization, and aggregate load characteristics. The results highlight the context-dependence of infrastructure suitability and demonstrate how charging strategies and charger types reshape both service-level outcomes and grid-facing behavior. The proposed ABM provides a flexible and extensible simulation environment for exploring technical, operational, and grid-aware aspects of EV charging ecosystems, and for serving as a methodological basis for subsequent studies on advanced coordination strategies beyond the specific scenario analyzed in this study.