Prasen R. Nuthanakaluva, Nava K. Gaddamcs.LG stat.ML
Forecast combination is a reliable way to improve predictive performance when several forecasting models are available. Simple aggregation rules such as the mean, median, trimmed mean, inverse-loss weighting, and exponential weighting are often strong baselines, but their relative performance can vary across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment settings, and levels of disagreement among base forecasters. We develop Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that treats forecasting models as experts and assigns ensemble weights using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. The framework extends this basic weighting rule through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation. GGEW produces a family of related methods, including Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. These variants share one core algorithm and differ only in the score used inside the exponential weighting rule. For sequential deployment, we adopt a UCB-style bandit mechanism, called online Local-UCB, to adapt the learning rate, diversity strength, and Gibbs variant without evaluating the full hyperparameter grid at every prediction step. We evaluate GGEW on official M4 competition forecast submissions and external rolling-origin deployment experiments using Monash Traffic Hourly, Electricity Hourly, and Solar Weekly datasets. Results suggest that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is a useful and competitive tool across several benchmark settings, although its relative performance varies across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment protocols, and forecast disagreement groups. The contribution is not a universal dominance claim, but a framework and empirical study motivating further investigation of when adaptive Gibbs-style forecast combination is useful.
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic macular edema (DME) are leading causes of vision loss, and optical coherence tomography (OCT) is the standard modality for detecting and monitoring the subtle lesions that drive treatment decisions. Most deep-learning segmentation work for OCT is validated only in-domain, leaving generalization to clinical data collected under different acquisition protocols largely untested. This work develops and systematically ablates four lesion-segmentation pipelines -- 2D and 3D variants for AMD and DME -- reaching Dice scores of 0.76 to 0.82 with strong volumetric and surface calibration (r vol, r surf greater than or equal to 0.97 across all four pipelines) on an in-domain validation set. The ablation process establishes a full-volume, calibration-aware adoption standard that catches mechanisms an ordinary slice-level evaluation would keep, and identifies ensemble composition as the most consistent driver of improvement. To test generalization, the models are evaluated on OLIVES, an external clinical cohort with no lesion-level ground truth, using a proxy-metric framework built around biomarker AUROC, central subfield thickness (CST) correlation, and longitudinal concordance. Predictions track clinical biomarkers outside the training distribution, though less strongly than in-domain -- evidence for, not validation of, automated lesion-burden tracking as a clinical tool.
Algorithmic trading now represents a market exceeding $20 billion, where even marginal gains in signal robustness can translate into economically significant returns. Existing evaluations of equity prediction models do not explicitly target regime robustness during hyperparameter selection. Five model classes are trained on daily observations from approximately 300 large-cap US equities over eleven years, with Bayesian optimisation configured to target trading performance across three statistically different market regimes. Regime-robust hyperparameter selection is associated with out-of-sample generalisation, as signal precision remains above the random baseline across all four quarters of the test period, and portfolio performance slowly degrades under simulated input noise before collapsing beyond a defined threshold. No individual tabular deep learning architecture outperforms gradient-boosted trees, but combining XGBoost and TabNet using rank aggregation produces a Hybrid ensemble with an annualised return of 51.26%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.44, and a statistically significant CAPM alpha of 0.423 (p = 0.011). A near-zero beta indicates this outperformance is driven by stock selection, not market exposure. Alternative data plays a secondary role once technical and fundamental features are accounted for, as well as contributing more strongly on the short side than the long, and varies by model class. An interactive application makes these results explorable in real time, with live data integration the remaining step toward practical deployment.
Brain stroke, known for its high mortality and incidence rates, poses significant health risks and requires rapid intervention for survival. Early diagnosis and preventive measures can greatly reduce life loss and disabilities. Recent advancements in deep learning have led to novel computer-aided diagnostic techniques for early stroke detection. This study proposes an intelligent system that predicts potential strokes using eleven features, evaluated through seven supervised machine learning algorithms. The process includes a literature review, dataset visualization, data preprocessing, and model evaluation. Ensemble methods like Random Forest, Stacking Classifier, and Bagging Classifier achieved high accuracies of 99.52%, while Decision Tree reached 98.24%. Other models, including KNN and TabNet, demonstrated reliable performance, achieving accuracies of 96.73% and 96.49%, respectively. The custom feedforward model achieved 94.91%, while SVC and logistic regression had lower accuracies at 88.06% and 77.03%. The results highlight the effectiveness of ensemble methods in stroke classification.
Philipp Steigerwald, Eric Rudolph, Jens Albrechtcs.CL
Harmful content in German social media does real-world damage, from calls to action to criminal defamation. The GermEval 2026 shared task scores its detection in four subtasks. The technical challenge is a severe class imbalance. The harmful classes are rare and share surface language with the dominant majority class, yet under macro-F1 they decide the score. The decisive lever is then not a stronger single model but error independence. This insight becomes a per-subtask nine-voter ensemble spanning three orthogonal axes: LLM, training method and class scope. Selected mainly on internal cross-validation, the system reaches macro-F1 of 89.56 (C2A), 71.63 (DBO), 54.84 (VIO) and 83.02 (DEF) on the hidden test set, placing first on all four subtasks.
Whether input-dependent ("dynamic") combination of a regression model pool beats the best static blend depends on the shift and is rarely known before deployment. Can a small labeled target-domain probe tell us when reallocating trust across regions of the input space will pay off? We answer this with $\widehat{D}_{\mathrm{CF5}}$, which estimates from the probe the cross-fitted gain of the regionwise convex combination over the best static convex blend: the realizable value of deciding, region by region, whom to trust. Across a frozen suite of 12 dataset-shift pairs (spatial, temporal, domain, feature-cluster), $\widehat{D}_{\mathrm{CF5}}$ predicts realized regionwise test gains with dataset-level Spearman $+0.98$ (95% CI $[+0.83, +1.00]$; $p=5\times10^{-5}$), including two cases overturning preregistered expectations. The relationship holds in a 16-pair sensitivity analysis (Spearman $+0.83$), whereas alternative probe diagnostics reach at most $+0.66$. This contrast isolates regional trust reallocation: correlation is $+0.98$ for regionwise-convex gain, but $+0.01$ for smooth covariate-dependent stacking after affine correction. A controlled generator shows dynamic gains arise from the interaction of shift heterogeneity and local competence, increase with shift severity, and become realizable between 128 and 256 probe labels in the tested grid. The Probe-Validated Ensemble Selector chooses among a static affine stacker and dynamic realizers, deploying a candidate only when a held-out lower confidence bound clears the static-convex floor. In a preregistered prospective batch, it matched or improved the floor in all 12 runs; two deployments reduced test risk by 11% and 16%, while the gate rejected a candidate whose un-gated deployment incurred $>30\times$ the static loss. We release OpenRegShift, a reproducible evaluation harness for regression ensembles under distribution shift.
WEASEL 2.0 is a dictionary-based time series classifier that combines dilated sliding windows with a randomised hyperparameter ensemble and a fixed-size dense feature representation. Two of its hyperparameter choices, the maximum ensemble size and the maximum window size, are specified by simple thresholding rules whose chosen thresholds are not empirically justified in the original paper. In this work we reproduce WEASEL 2.0 on 114 UCR datasets, achieving a mean accuracy of 0.865 and median of 0.928, closely matching the published values (Wilcoxon signed-rank, p = 0.655). We then test the sensitivity of four design choices: the downstream classifier, the absence of feature weighting, the maximum window-size rule, and the maximum ensemble-size rule. The first three are robust to perturbation. The fourth is over-provisioned for long-series datasets, motivating an adaptive rule that sets the maximum ensemble size from series length and number of classes. Evaluated on fixed-length datasets, the adaptive rule reduces peak fit memory by a median of 37 MB (mean 395 MB) and fit time by a median of 0.4 s (mean 4 s), with a median accuracy change of 0% (mean -0.11%). Memory and time savings concentrate on long-series datasets where the original rule allocates the largest ensemble size.
Tabular anomaly detection is dominated by classical density-proxy methods (Isolation Forest, OCSVM, LOF), reconstruction-based detectors (Autoencoders, VAEs), and modern non-parametric scorers (COPOD, ECOD, Deep SVDD), all of which approximate the inlier distribution only indirectly; explicit energy-based models are largely absent. Motivated by the recent revival of EBMs in deep learning (e.g., Energy-Based Transformers, JEPA), we revisit the classical Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) for this task and hypothesize that its mean-field energy combines more effectively with a reconstruction-based score than same-lineage pairs do. We evaluate a two-hidden-layer DBM on two tabular benchmarks spanning distinct domains (UCI Bank Marketing and NSL-KDD) against eight classical and modern baselines across twenty random seeds. The DBM mean-field energy matches the strongest baseline (the Autoencoder) on Bank Marketing and statistically beats it on NSL-KDD, while significantly outperforming the remaining seven on both datasets. When fused with the Autoencoder via rank fusion, the DBM energy yields a statistically significant improvement on both datasets (AUROC=+0.014, p<0.01 on Bank Marketing; +0.002, p<0.001 on NSL-KDD); every non-DBM-derived base model instead fails to improve or significantly degrades the AE-paired ensemble. Our position is that classical EBMs, exemplified by the DBM, deserve a place in the tabular anomaly detection toolbox as a non-redundant complementary view to the reconstruction-based scores that dominate current practice.
We revisit the problem of learning predictors robust to adversarial examples at test-time. We prove that VC classes are adversarially robustly learnable with sample complexity linear in the VC dimension $d$, providing an exponential improvement over the previous upper bound of Montasser, Hanneke, and Srebro (2019). Remarkably, this result is achieved with a simple improper algorithm that combines the classic heuristic bagging (bootstrap aggregation) of Breiman (1996) with robust empirical risk minimization (RERM). Our algorithm computes RERMs on $O(d^\star)$ independent bootstrap samples and outputs their majority vote, where $d^\star$ denotes the dual VC dimension. We complement this result with a lower bound showing that this is unavoidable: in general, any learner in this oracle model requires $Ω(d^\star)$ calls to an RERM oracle, even when given arbitrarily many training examples.
Giancarlo Sportelli, Nicola Belcari, Roberta Pace +4cs.CV cs.LG physics.app-ph
Non-destructive X-ray imaging can reveal internal hazelnut defects that are difficult to detect by external inspection alone; however, automated interpretation remains challenging because of subtle radiographic differences among classes, marked class imbalance, and limited annotated data. Here, we present a benchmark for binary hazelnut quality classification (healthy versus defective) based on 799 segmented single-kernel X-ray images (224 x 224 pixels, grayscale), grouped into 101 acquisition units. Seven single-model configurations and ten probability-aggregation ensembles were evaluated using a group-wise split-rotation protocol across five data splits generated using different random seeds. Decision thresholds were selected on the validation set, and performance was assessed deterministically on validation and test sets. Under the expert-reassessed annotation condition, the average-probability ensemble of the binary cross-entropy-trained convolutional neural network and frozen Swin Transformer achieved the highest mean balanced accuracy (86.3% +/- 1.8%, five seeds), with several other ensembles providing comparable performance. Across methods, substantial split-to-split variability was observed, indicating that multi-split evaluation is essential for reliable model comparison at this dataset scale. Expert reassessment of ambiguous samples improved the performance of all 17 evaluated methods by 2.8-8.1 percentage points, while having only a limited effect on cross-split variance. The results highlight both the potential of deep learning for automated X-ray-based hazelnut quality assessment and the importance of rigorous evaluation and label curation in small, imbalanced agricultural imaging datasets.
Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.
Learning from heterogeneous representations is often reduced to feature concatenation, erasing which representation produced each error. We propose residual algebra, in which each representation retains its coordinate system and owns its unresolved residual until an explicit aggregation boundary. Fold instantiates representations as point-in-time conditional-mean fields on 10x10 rank grids, and FPRC-PQ composes them through relax-aggregate-close: each field first fits a correction to its own residual, corrected fields then meet at a fixed mean, and a shared learner closes only the aggregate's fresh residual. We formalize aggregation as a quotient by the zero-sum redistribution kernel, characterizing legal post-aggregation operators as those constant on its cosets. The resulting composition separates representation, local residual estimation, and residual-of-residual estimation, with population variance reduction and first-order coupled-path mean orthogonality. Rumination-B and Rumination-H extend the algebra with quotient-legal finite correction and feedback. On 3.67M Chinese A-share stock-day observations (2023-2026) under a frozen point-in-time protocol, FPRC-PQ raises net-of-cost return from 13.52% to 19.10% and Sharpe from 1.42 to 2.09, outperforming matched-capacity, unified-residual, identity-free two-stage, and pairwise-only controls. The gain is thus attributable to explicit residual ownership and composition rather than additional features or trees.
Abbas Al-Sabbagh, Shalom F. Mushtaq, Tomás M. da Silva +7cs.CV
Few-shot learning has emerged as a promising approach for anatomical segmentation when labelled data are scarce. However, different few-shot learning algorithms exhibit complementary strengths and weaknesses, with performance varying across anatomical targets and institutions. Existing few-shot segmentation ensembles, that combine predictions from multiple algorithms, typically employ fixed weighting schemes and therefore cannot adjust model contributions according to the target domain. In this work, we propose a Bayesian adaptively-weighted ensemble framework for segmentation under label scarcity and domain shift. Multiple few-shot segmentation algorithms are first adapted using a small labelled support set. Bayesian optimisation is then used to automatically identify ensemble weights that maximise segmentation performance on a target-domain validation set. The learned weights are subsequently fixed and applied to combine predictions on previously unseen query images from the target domain. The proposed framework is evaluated on the Cross-institution Male Pelvic Structures dataset using held-out anatomical structures and institutions to simulate simultaneous label scarcity and institutional domain shift. Results demonstrate statistically significant improvements over individual few-shot learners, fixed-weight ensembles, training-from-scratch baselines and recent state-of-the-art ensembling approaches. By adapting model contributions to the target anatomy and institutional domain, the proposed framework provides a practical mechanism for deploying segmentation systems to new clinical sites under severe annotation constraints.
Named Entity Recognition (NER) for Gujarati remains underexplored, hindered by the absence of capitalization cues, rich morphology, lexical ambiguity, and free word order. Prior ensemble work has emphasized architectural diversity by combining heterogeneous classifiers, multilingual encoders, or classical sequence models, rather than exploiting language-aligned monolingual pretraining. This study asks whether, for a low-resource, morphologically rich language like Gujarati, a homogeneous ensemble of a single monolingual encoder outperforms such architectural diversity. We propose HomoEnsNER, a homogeneous ensemble of five independently fine-tuned GujaratiBERT models combined via majority voting, evaluated against a single GujaratiBERT baseline and six heterogeneous alternatives, including combinations with MuRIL-base, MuRIL-large, IndicBERT, mBERT, BiLSTM, CRF, and a stacked BiLSTM-CRF-GujaratiBERT architecture. All eight models were trained under a consistent budget and evaluated using entity-level F1 on the Naamapadam Gujarati test split. HomoEnsNER achieved the highest F1 (0.8442), surpassing the baseline (0.8347) and every heterogeneous alternative (lowest: 0.7855), indicating that language alignment is a more effective, budget-conscious ensembling strategy than architectural complexity for low-resource Indian language NER.
Henri Funk, Cornelia Gruber, Göran Kauermann +2stat.AP cs.LG physics.ao-ph
Predicting drought risk is essential for anticipating impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate adaptation planning. Yet drought forecasts remain uncertain because variability can substantially alter regional precipitation and evaporative demand. Treating this variability as unstructured noise ignores the fact that internal variability has spatial, seasonal, and temporal structure and thus contains information that can be used to improve drought forecasting. We propose a deep-learning-based forecasting framework for European drought prediction and extend it with an uncertainty-aware drought bound that explicitly incorporates internal forecast variability from a large climate model ensemble. This bound represents a physically plausible lower-tail trajectory of future drought conditions and marks how severe drought could plausibly become under an unfavourable realisation of internal variability, giving adaptation planning a conservative, risk-averse reference. We compare the proposed bound with a lower bound derived from reanalysis data only and show that our proposed ensemble-informed bound is better calibrated across most regions and seasons. This is specifically true during anomalously dry conditions, when historical reanalysis alone underestimates lower-tail drought risk. Our results show that internal variability should be treated as a forecast quantity in its own right. More broadly, large ensembles provide a practical way to transfer physically plausible climate variability into machine-learning drought forecasts, yielding risk-aware bounds that are more informative for drought assessment under shifting climate conditions.
Reliable decision-support in digital agriculture requires accurate predictions and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensemble methods provide strong uncertainty quantification, but their computational and memory demands limit practical use, while single-model approximations often trade off uncertainty quality for efficiency. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble framework that builds diverse ensemble members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. Each member shares a frozen pretrained backbone and differs only in lightweight low-rank adapters, reducing trainable parameters to under 10% of the full model while preserving ensemble diversity. We evaluate across two agricultural datasets - GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse) - using SegFormer and Mask2Former, covering in-distribution performance, calibration under distribution shift, and out-of-distribution detection. Ablations show feed-forward layers, not attention layers, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, contrary to the attention-only convention from language models. ST-LoRA matches or exceeds full-rank ensembles in segmentation accuracy and calibration across both datasets and architectures, while substantially reducing training time, inference latency, memory footprint, and storage requirements. Against efficient baselines - Snapshot Ensemble, MC Dropout, and Deep Deterministic Uncertainty - ST-LoRA consistently matches or outperforms them in image/pixel-level OoD detection, calibration stability under shift, and cross-seed variance, with far fewer parameters and lower compute. These results show LoRA-efficient ensemble adaptation is a highly effective, practical approach for uncertainty-aware agricultural vision systems.
Semantic segmentation models are vulnerable to transferable adversarial perturbations, yet evaluating transfer attacks on dense prediction models can be computationally expensive. Existing ensemble attacks often rely on multiple surrogate models, increasing the computation cost, even harder for segmentation. This paper studies an efficient single-source alternative for transferable attacks on semantic segmentation. We formulate transferable attack composition as a chained computation over differentiable attack components, allowing the expensive source-model gradient computation to be shared. To reduce the update instability introduced by chained composition, we further use an integrated-gradient-style path-averaged direction as an empirical stabilization heuristic. Experiments on Pascal VOC and Cityscapes evaluate the resulting transferability efficiency trade-off across CNN- and transformer-based segmentation models. IGME achieves competitive transferability compared with single-source baselines and favorable runtime compared with model-ensemble attacks, while requiring access to only one source model.
We study feature bagging through the lens of algorithmic stability. Feature bagging is an ensemble strategy that aggregates base learners trained on randomly subsampled feature subsets, possibly in a data-dependent manner. We introduce feature instability (FI), the feature-axis analogue of instance instability (II), which measures sensitivity to removing a single feature. Smaller values of II or FI correspond to stronger stability, and our experiments show that FI captures generalization-relevant information complementary to II. Within this framework, we analyze feature bagging in both a parametric linear model and a model-free setting inspired by recursive feature subsampling in random forests. In both settings, we establish formal guarantees showing that feature bagging improves the relevant stability relative to its non-bagged counterpart, with larger improvements under more aggressive subsampling. We further show that a modest number of bagging rounds is sufficient to approach the infinite-bagging stability level.
H. Martin Gillis, Isaac Xu, Gabriel Spadon +1cs.LG
A Last-Layer Ensemble (LLE), $K$ linear units on one shared frozen feature map, is an efficient single-pass approach to the disagreement-based epistemic uncertainty for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Its weakness is that members share the backbone gradient and can converge toward the same function, collapsing the inter-member diversity the signal depends on. Whether last-layer diversity can be restored, and what mitigates the collapse, is an open question. The weight-orthonormality defining Orthonormal Certificates (OC), the weight-orthonormal special case of the LLE, is only an indirect correction; it decorrelates the weights of the members, not their predictions. Here, we instead target the collapse directly in function space, with a Covariance Last-Layer Ensemble (cov-LLE) that places a direct covariance penalty on member activations. Cov-LLE restores the function-space diversity that weight-orthonormality cannot, and at matched $K$ recovers much of the diversity and calibration of a deep ensemble at $1\times$ backbone cost (in-distribution prediction variance $0.05\!\to\!9.3$ vs. $22.1$ ($\times10^{-3}$), and ECE $0.135\!\to\!0.090$ vs. $0.035$, for a $K\times$-cost deep ensemble), at no cost to accuracy. Viewing OC as a last-layer ensemble also organizes detectors into a two-axis taxonomy (by how their units are trained and how their outputs are scored) and exposes the OC score as a magnitude, motivating a scale-invariant, label-free direction score that repairs its near-OOD failure, adding $+0.16$ to $+0.18$ ROC AUC on every backbone.
Volatility forecasting is dominated by persistence and measurement noise, leaving limited residual structure for nonlinear models to exploit. We introduce Susceptible Architectures (SUSA), a reservoir-design principle for volatility forecasting, and its two concrete implementations, based on complex-valued open-chain and periodic reservoirs and regime-conditioned experts to interpret reservoir features across calm, onset, recovery, and persistent-stress states. We also implement open-system $q$-qubit counterparts in Qiskit while retaining a common AR-Ridge anchor and a bounded residual correction trained under QLIKE. We evaluate models on 16 U.S. equity and exchange-traded-fund series using three disjoint chronological training, validation, and test folds, a 12-observation input window, and a five-observation forecast horizon. The proposed models perform competitively with GARCH, achieving statistically significant QLIKE improvements for specific assets (IWM, XLP). Also models' forecasts complement HARQ-style predictions: a stacked ensemble improves mean QLIKE by 0.0116 over its strongest constituent and wins in 75% of test scenarios.
Yehuda Rudin, Osnat Keren, Michal Yemini +1cs.LG cs.MA
Tsetlin Machine (TM) is a rule-based machine-learning algorithm comprising collectives of two-action Tsetlin Automata (TAs) that cooperatively form conjunctive logical clauses from Boolean inputs through stochastic feedback. Although few recent studies have examined TM Federated Learning, the broader area of distributed and decentralized TM learning has not received much attention in the existing literature and warrants further exploration. In this work, we propose a paradigm for decentralized collaborative learning under a vertical feature-partitioning setting among an ensemble of Tsetlin Machines using consensus-based inference. Within this decentralized paradigm, each agent maintains its own private TM model, and there is no exchange of raw data among agents. Inference combines individual agents model predictions into a global consensus. The paradigm accommodates heterogeneous TM-based agents with differing data acquisition means, local data distributions, or computational resources, thereby facilitating the integration and fusion of information in settings such as multi-modal sensing environments. Experiments conducted using two-dimensional grid and connected graph network topologies demonstrate that the classification accuracies achieved are comparable to those of centralized models.
This paper studies an optimal linear combination of binary classifiers based on a logical structuration of the dataset via truth tables. The given classifiers partition data into equivalence classes, allowing for a rigorous analysis of the convexified empirical risk through a multidimensional generalization of classification calibrated functions. We establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the (global) point of minimum of the convexified empirical risk for any list of classifiers (when the number of classifiers is large, there frequently could be no point of minimum). In the case of three classifiers, our analysis allows to list all the configurations leading to either a unique solution, infima or non-unique points of minimum. Furthermore, we derive explicit analytical formulae for optimal weights using Exponential (Boost) and Logistic (Logit) loss functions, bypassing iterative optimization. The stability of the resulting classifier and the analysis of data quality can be evaluated through the introduction of the notion of $φ$-frontiers.
We describe our BioASQ Task 14B 2026 system. The work centers on two design decisions: how aggressively to re-retrieve when first-stage retrieval is weak, and how to combine multiple language-model answers. Retrieval unions two parallel pipelines - a hybrid first stage (dense BGE + BM25 + RRF, reaching R@200 = 99.3% on the BioASQ-13b historical archive) and an agent-driven pipeline that decomposes the question over PubMed, Europe PMC, and iCite - with a BGE cross-encoder quality gate flagging weakly-supported questions for selective re-retrieval. On Task 12B 2024 validation, a cost-pragmatic re-retrieval policy beats a skill-strict baseline significantly on list F1 and list precision, at 12% lower re-retrieval cost. Holding prompt and model fixed across val and test 13B (different question sets), list F1 rises by +0.132 absolute on the BioASQ-released gold-input pool, consistent with substantial retrieval-side headroom. For Phase B answering we decompose multi-model ensemble lift into a selection component bounded by the per-question oracle and a fusion component that aggregators can exceed. The decomposition predicts before any experiment that LLM-as-judge wins on selection-dominated metrics (yes/no, multi-reference ROUGE) but is structurally insufficient on the recall component of fusion-friendly metrics (factoid rank-1, list recall). On Task 13B 2025 our synonym-union resolver wins list recall on every head, while GPT-5.5 solo retains the list-F1 lead because the resolver's wider item set costs precision. On the Task 14B 2026 preliminary leaderboard our team places first on the combined-exact aggregate on three of the eight (phase x batch) leaderboards, wins four individual question-type cells, and takes #1 on Phase B b3 ideal.
Francesco Di Salvo, Shyam Nandan Rai, Hamed Damirchi +4cs.CV cs.LG eess.IV
Despite exposing rich intermediate representations, Vision Transformers (ViTs) are almost exclusively utilized as black-box feature extractors, where only the last layer is considered for downstream tasks. We challenge this convention by introducing the notion of recoverability: the capacity of intermediate representations to correct last-layer failures. By evaluating independent classification probes at every model depth across 16 datasets, we observe that intermediate probes correctly classify 18% to 76% of samples that the last-layer probe misclassifies. We show that these gains are not primarily driven by predictive diversity, but by a redundancy-correctness correspondence, where the internal hierarchy acts as a series of stable, redundant probes of a shared discriminative signal. While established horizontal ensemble strategies (i.e., across multiple models) can improve performance, they incur high computational cost and ignore this vertical signal within a single model. To bridge this gap, we propose VFusion, a principled vertical aggregation strategy employing a learnable mapping into a low-dimensional latent space that synthesizes features across the internal ViT hierarchy. VFusion substantially outperforms established aggregation baselines in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings, notably closing 45% of the accuracy gap between the best individual layer and a theoretical oracle performance. Our gains consistently generalize across model sizes and pre-training regimes, confirming that VFusion offers a robust and efficient alternative to horizontal ensemble methods. The code is available at https://github.com/francescodisalvo05/vit-vertical-fusion.
Uncertainty quantification of hydrological predictions is necessary to inform operational decisions. Recent generative machine-learning methods have advanced probabilistic streamflow prediction, but have remained confined to lumped models that predict a basin outlet directly. At the same time, deterministic LSTM runoff models are increasingly applied at grid or catchment scale and routed through river networks to produce spatially continuous, physically consistent discharge fields. This technical note argues that moving probabilistic prediction from lumped to distributed models introduces a specific new requirement: the joint distribution of upstream runoff generation must be sampled jointly. In lumped inference, the model predicts the outlet distribution directly and can modulate spread from basin attributes. In distributed inference, downstream discharge is obtained by routing many upstream runoff predictions, so independent local sampling averages uncertainty away. Using Japan as a case study, we train two probabilistic basin-scale runoff LSTMs and route their runoff through a Hayami routing scheme. Randomly matching upstream ensemble members produces severely under-dispersed downstream ensembles, whereas a simple quantile matching strategy restores much of the spread of the direct basin-scale reference. The shift from lumped to distributed probabilistic hydrology therefore requires explicit attention to the spatial joint structure of runoff uncertainty.
This technical report describes our system for Task 1 of the DCASE 2026 Challenge, which aims to classify heterogeneous audio recordings according to the Broad Sound Taxonomy (BST). The task requires both accurate second-level prediction and consistency with the top-level taxonomy. Our system is built on CLAP-based audio-text representations and is improved along three strategies: expanding the training set with a filtered subset of BSD35k, enhancing acoustic modeling with feature-specific branches, and refining predictions using hierarchy-aware classifiers and KNN-based post-processing. Among the acoustic features considered, the log-STFT branch provides the strongest single-model performance. With KNN-based post-processing, our best single system achieves a hierarchical F1 score (Hier. F1) of 80.84% on the BSD10k-v1.2 set under the same evaluation protocol as the baseline. We further construct ensemble systems by combining models with complementary acoustic features and classification heads, achieving Hier. F1 scores of 81.25% and 81.18%, respectively.
The geometric and topological structure of quantum cost landscapes (QCLs) governs the optimization and thus the predictive power of variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). We systematically analyze ravines - low-cost paths connecting local minima - using an adapted version of the nudged elastic band (NEB) algorithm, a method originating from theoretical chemistry. By training quantum neural networks (QNNs) to classify the concentratable entanglement of quantum states, we apply the NEB algorithm and numerically identify ravine structures in QCLs of hardware-efficient ansatzes. Beyond visualizing these ravines, we construct an ensemble prediction framework by averaging predictions from QNNs parameterized along the low-cost NEB path. We introduce a resource-light pre-training metric which quantifies local-prediction variability and serves as a strong performance indicator for VQAs, even beyond the scope of this study. When base classifiers are drawn from circuit and weight initializations exhibiting high local-prediction variability, the quantum-based NEB ensembles outperform both classical and naive quantum alternatives. Moreover, a complexity analysis shows that leveraging the ravine-like structure of QCLs with the QNN NEB approach substantially reduces computational costs compared to naive QNN ensembling. A depth and qubit scaling analysis indicates that ravines persist across both scalings, and that, despite the expected growth in resource requirements with the qubit scaling, the NEB approach also accelerates convergence over the naive alternative.
Mathswitch is an open-source project that imports mathematical concept records from sources such as Wikidata, Wikipedia, MathWorld, Encyclopedia of Mathematics, nLab, ProofWiki, and Agda-Unimath, and links records that refer to the same concept. It does not reorganize or redefine the imported content; each source retains its own structure. The current focus is on importing concept data from Wikidata and the resources it links to, with plans to expand to further sources and better concept linking. Because the concept set is approximated through queries over Wikidata's collaboratively edited graph, the imported data is noisy: some items are non-mathematical, while others are ambiguous. In this paper, we test whether a voting ensemble of LLM judges can filter this noise. We evaluate it on Wikidata items with known MathWorld identifiers as a positive control, and examine how classification changes when database identifiers are removed from context. We then inspect the cases where the judges disagree with MathWorld and group these disagreements into three categories (degenerate descriptions, narrow scope bias, and editorial-scope mismatches) that suggest different remediation strategies.
Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva Filhocs.LG cs.AI
In financial forecasting, predictive performance depends not only on which model is trained, but also on how the trained model is deployed. We study this issue in multi-horizon volatility forecasting. Our starting point is that a trained multi-output (MIMO) forecaster does not define a single deployable predictor: by changing the inference-time rollout rule, the same trained model induces a family of forecasts with different accuracy and cost profiles. Across 20 stock-volatility series, three forecast horizons, and architectures ranging from linear models to PatchTST, we find that non-default rollout rules often improve over standard MIMO deployment. However, the best fixed rule varies substantially across architectures and horizons, making any single static replacement unreliable. We therefore evaluate validation-based deployment policies over the induced rule family. Under the primary MSE objective, validation-selected singletons provide a low-cost improvement over default MIMO, while small rule subsets recover much of the benefit of larger ensembles at substantially lower inference cost. We also find that policy rankings are metric-sensitive: MSE-selected policies do not transfer uniformly to QLIKE, a finance-standard volatility loss. These results show that inference-time deployment is a meaningful source of adaptiveness in financial forecasting, and that trained volatility forecasters should be evaluated not only by their architecture, but also by their deployment policy.
Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.