Meteorology-driven Causal Nowcasting of Fugitive Landfill Emissions Enables Proactive Public Health Response

Fugitive emissions from waste sites increasingly expose communities to toxic and odorous gases, yet public-health responses remain largely retrospective, with episodes investigated only after residents have been exposed. Here we show that the meteorological drivers of elevated hydrogen sulphide (HS) at a long-monitored European landfill, and the timescales over which they act, can be identified directly from routine monitoring data. We introduce CAIRN (Causal-Anchored Inference for Receptor Nowcasting), a machine-learning framework whose internal memory is matched to these measured timescales: a fast component tracking hour-scale wind-borne transport and a slow component tracking multi-hour weather changes. Trained to predict gas measurements, CAIRN operates using only routine weather variables and the calendar, without hand-engineered features. Its behaviour is consistent with the identified transport mechanisms, and the framework transfers unchanged to a second monitoring station and to co-emitted methane. Combining four such nowcasters produces a site-level, tiered alert aligned with WHO odour guidance that closely reproduces the alert generated by a direct sensor network and tracks an independent record of community odour complaints. Weather-driven nowcasting can therefore estimate community impact as an emission episode unfolds, providing public-health authorities with a validated, graded trigger for intervention and enabling exposure to be reduced during events rather than after them.

UAV-Based Environmental Monitoring of Rip-Current Indicators Using Wavelet-Derived Texture Features

Rip currents are recurrent coastal natural hazards that threaten beachgoers and create operational challenges for lifeguards and coastal managers. Reliable monitoring from standard RGB (red-green-blue) imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) remains difficult because hazardous channels often appear as subtle gaps in breaking waves, foam texture, or sediment patterns, and these signatures are affected by illumination, sea state, and environmental noise. This study presents a physically informed coastal environmental monitoring workflow for detecting visually expressed rip-current indicators that integrates wavelet-derived spatial-frequency texture features with deep learning. We evaluate multiple strategies for incorporating Discrete Wavelet Transform features into convolutional architectures, from computationally efficient channel replacement to dual-stream fusion with attention mechanisms. Performance is assessed against a standard RGB baseline using a task specific convolutional neural network for image-level presence classification and a YOLOv8 model for object-level localization. Under the evaluated dataset conditions, integrating wavelet derived texture features improves performance over RGB-only models. The dual-stream architecture achieves the strongest classification performance, exceeding 95% accuracy with high recall, while channel replacement is most effective for YOLOv8 object detection, reaching 94% mAP@50 for localization. Explainable artificial intelligence analyses provide qualitative evidence that the models attend to visually plausible wave-gap regions associated with rip currents. These results suggest that under the conditions of the evaluated dataset, physically informed wavelet integration may support UAV-based decision-support tools for interpretable beach-safety risk mitigation.

From Forest to Future Capital: Tracking Land Cover Change in Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) from 2021 to 2026 with PlanetScope Imagery

Indonesia's relocation of its political and administrative capital from Jakarta to Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) has been framed around a Forest City vision, yet rapid construction within the Core Government Area (KIPP) raises concerns over land conversion, vegetation loss, and carbon stock decline. This study applies remote sensing techniques to systematically assess land use and vegetation cover change in KIPP from 2021 to 2026 using PlanetScope SuperDove satellite imagery. Cloud-free mosaics were prepared and analysed through spectral indices, including the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Red Edge (NDRE), and Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), alongside supervised land use and land cover (LULC) classification using a Support Vector Machine algorithm. Results show substantial environmental transformation, with mean NDVI declined by 17.1%, total carbon stock decreased by 0.28%, developed land expanded by 672%, and total vegetation declined by 18.1%. Vegetation loss was most extensive between 2023 and 2024, although a temporary recovery in NDVI and carbon stock occurred from 2024 to 2025 as active clearing slowed and development shifted towards already-cleared land. Overall, the findings demonstrate that remote sensing provides an effective approach for monitoring the environmental impacts of large-scale urban development, while highlighting the need for higher-resolution, hyperspectral, and SAR-based methods to improve detection of construction stages and plantation-related land cover changes.

From Deterministic to Generative Deep Learning for Urban Air Quality Reconstruction from Sparse Observations

Full-field reconstruction of air pollution is essential for evaluating pollution exposure and supporting public health decision-making. However, the complex interactions among pollutants, hard-to-predict weather patterns, and limited monitoring station coverage make this a complex task. We apply deep learning techniques to provide fast and accurate reconstructions from sparse observations of four key pollutants: NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10. Models are trained on full-field simulation data and evaluated on real-world observations collected from 9 to 28 monitoring stations in the city of Paris. We introduce a diffusion-based generative framework for multi-pollutant reconstruction and benchmark its performance against deterministic deep learning models. Despite noisy observations and strong spatial variability, the models achieve high structural similarity on simulated validation data and produce realistic spatial patterns on real-world observations, as indicated by power-spectrum analysis. We introduce data augmentation methods that enable transfer to real-world observations without retraining, allowing the models to generalise beyond the training period. These findings highlight the potential of ML models for reliable real-world deployment in air pollution reconstruction tasks.

Spatial Prediction of Soil Microplastics and Organic Matter Using Graph Attention Networks

Accurate estimation of soil microplastics and organic matter is essential to assess ecosystem health and support sustainable land use. This study presents a graph-based deep learning approach using Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to model spatial dependencies among 91 georeferenced soil samples. By incorporating spatial coordinates, soil properties, and land use data, a two-layer GAT architecture was developed to capture local interactions. The final model showed strong performance, achieving RMSEs of 625.06 ($R^2 = 0.87$) for microplastics and 0.43 ($R^2 = 0.91$) for organic matter. However, cross-validation results revealed limited generalization, probably due to the small sample size and sparse graph structure. These findings demonstrate the potential of GATs for spatial soil prediction and underscore the need for dense datasets and improved graph connectivity.

Evaluating the Generalizability of Foundation Models for Extreme Environmental Events: Case Study of California Wildfire PM2.5

Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations that pose severe public health risks, yet forecasting rare, hazardous-level spikes remains a fundamental challenge. Time series foundation models (TSFMs), pretrained models offering zero-shot inference and efficient adaptation, perform strongly on general benchmarks, but their behavior under extreme out-of-distribution conditions is poorly understood. We present the first systematic benchmark comparing six TSFM configurations (zero-shot TimesFM, Chronos-2, Moirai-2, and Time-MoE, plus LoRA fine-tuned Chronos-2 and Time-MoE) against fully-trained baselines (LSTM, BiLSTM, Transformer) and naive persistence on a 12-year (2013--2025) hourly PM$_{2.5}$ dataset covering 1,375 wildfire incidents across 79 California monitoring sites. A leave-one-incident-out (LOIO) protocol evaluates generalization to unseen fires, using MAE, RMSE, and exceedance F1 at EPA AQI thresholds across 6-, 12-, and 24-hour horizons. Results reveal a consistent hierarchy. The BiLSTM achieves the lowest MAE ($5.16\,μg/m^3$) and the highest exceedance F1 at every threshold, including the Hazardous band ($>225.5\,μg/m^3$), reaching 0.63 versus at most 0.54 for any foundation model. Zero-shot TSFMs improve on persistence only modestly, and zero-shot Chronos-2 exhibits severe RMSE tail instability ($23.4\,μg/m^3$, negative $R^2$) from sporadic large errors. LoRA fine-tuning substantially improves both adapted families and largely repairs this instability, yet no foundation model surpasses the trained recurrent baselines on any metric. These findings challenge the assumption that larger pretrained models universally dominate environmental forecasting and provide actionable deployment guidance for wildfire air quality prediction.

Scalable and Trustworthy Earth Observation Foundation Models

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed machine learning from isolated task-specific model development toward general-purpose models pretrained on broad data and adapted to multiple downstream tasks. Earth observation (EO) is an important domain for this paradigm because satellite and airborne archives are large, high-revisit, and increasingly multimodal, while reliable field labels are often sparse. Remote sensing foundation models (RSFMs) cannot be transferred reliably/optimally without domain-specific adaptation. This is because EO data are governed by measurement physics and operational decision constraints. This chapter reviews the design principles arising from these domain-specific constraints. It first defines the FMs paradigm in remote sensing (RS), then synthesizes the current model landscape, pretraining objectives, architecture designs, downstream adaptation and trustworthiness requirements. The chapter also incorporates recent benchmark evidence showing that no single geospatial foundation model is universally best and that inconsistent evaluation remains a major issue to fair comparison and reliable deployment. In addition, two brief environmental monitoring case studies; physics-informed spectral targeted masking for harmful algal bloom prediction and reinforcement learning for adaptive environmental monitoring station selection to illustrate the FMs domain-guided principles in practice. This chapter posits that next-generation RSFMs should be evaluated not only by benchmark accuracy, but also by modality-aware transfer and physically plausible representations for trustworthy EO decisions.

Autonomous UAV Route Planning for Coverage Maximization in Environmental Monitoring: A Systematic Literature Review

Environmental monitoring with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) requires route planning methods that maximize covered area while handling energy limits, operational constraints, and geometric complexity. This paper reports the protocol and preliminary results of an ongoing systematic literature review (SLR) on autonomous UAV route planning for coverage-oriented environmental monitoring. The review follows the PRISMA 2020 framework and searches Scopus and Web of Science for studies published between 2015 and 2026. The protocol focuses on path planning, coverage path planning, and informative path planning, with emphasis on algorithmic families, coverage and energy metrics, obstacle handling, geometric environment representations, and environmental constraints. At the current stage, 562 records have been identified, 161 duplicates have been removed, and 401 unique records have been screened by title, abstract, and keywords. From these, 247 studies were retained for full-text eligibility assessment (235 eligible and 12 borderline records to be resolved during full-text review). A preliminary analysis of the retained studies suggests strong concentration on coverage-oriented formulations, multi-UAV coordination, and energy-aware optimization, while fewer studies explicitly address weather, uncertainty, or obstacle-rich environments. Most retained studies rely on simulation-based validation, highlighting a potential simulation-to-reality gap, and recent publications show increasing interest in reinforcement learning, hybrid optimization, and geometry-aware planning. These early findings indicate an active but fragmented research landscape and support the need for a structured synthesis to identify mature techniques and unresolved gaps for realistic environmental monitoring missions.

Predicting Groundwater Arsenic Concentrations Using Graph Neural Networks

Arsenic contamination in groundwater presents a longstanding public health crisis in the United States, especially for households depending on private wells. Accurate and spatially informed prediction of arsenic concentration is vital to identify high-risk areas and focus mitigation efforts. However, there is a lack of generalizable models for representing continuous variation in arsenic concentrations across regions. In this work, we pose arsenic prediction as a regression task and construct a spatially integrated dataset to aggregate over 74,000 arsenic samples from the Water Quality Portal (WQP), Mineral Resources Data System (MRDS), and Gridded National Soil Survey Geographic Database (gNATSGO). Specifically, we use a variety of techniques including kNearest Neighbors (k-NN) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to join arsenic measurement points from across the United States by location. Building on this dataset, we evaluate a diverse suite of machine learning models, including tree-based ensemble approaches, multilayer perceptrons, and spatially aware graph neural networks (GNN). Our findings show that while gradient-boosted trees are still considered state-of-the-art in the field of tabular data, GNNs are able to further account for spatial dependence to match or outperform the results of gradient-boosted trees. These results demonstrate that graph-based and spatially informed learning can enhance environmental prediction and provide a foundation for improved groundwater risk mapping and monitoring.

Air Quality Arena: A Large-Scale Multi-Region Ground Monitoring Dataset and Benchmark for Air Quality Forecasting with Time-Series Foundation Models

Air pollution causes an estimated 7.9 million premature deaths annually, making accurate forecasting a critical public health priority. Machine learning is increasingly being applied to forecast air pollution levels, yet existing benchmarks remain narrow in both geographic scope and pollutant coverage, and fail to evaluate the latest generation of time series foundation models (TSFMs) on real world, large scale data. We present Air Quality Arena (AQA), a large scale multi-country and multi-pollutant dataset (AQA-Data) and benchmark (AQA-Bench) to address this gap. AQA covers 6 major pollutants over a three year period across 7 diverse countries and 4 continents, with more than 14,000 station-pollutant series, aiming to provide a comprehensive benchmark for air quality tasks. We benchmark this dataset across 11 leading time series foundation models and classical baselines to assess performance on short-term air quality forecasting. Our results demonstrate that TSFMs are effective zero-shot forecasters and consistently outperform classical baselines, with our top-performing model employing a cross-modal architecture that leverages a vision foundation model for time series forecasting. AQA is publicly released at AirQualityArena.github.io

Enabling Cloud-Level Accuracy in Edge AI through IoT Data Preprocessing

Large language models (LLMs) offer a natural-language interface for interpreting Internet of Things (IoT) sensor data in smart environments; however, cloud deployment introduces latency, privacy, and connectivity concerns. Local LLMs can reduce these limitations, but compact edge-deployable models often show weaker numerical reasoning when raw sensor readings are provided directly. This paper investigates whether prompt-side preprocessing can improve the accuracy-latency trade-off of local LLMs for environmental monitoring. We propose a structured prompt construction framework that transforms raw air-quality and thermal-comfort measurements into progressively enriched textual representations: raw sensor values, threshold-aware descriptions, and compact environmental summary flags. The approach is evaluated using indoor Raspberry Pi/BME680 datasets from Tampere University and outdoor air-quality datasets from Helsinki, Katowice, and Warsaw. We construct a binary LLM query dataset covering air quality, thermal comfort, and joint environmental conditions, and evaluate five local and five cloud LLMs across three prompt variants and two inference modes, with and without chain-of-thought prompting. Results show that prompt enrichment substantially improves local-model accuracy. In No-CoT mode, local accuracy increases from 50.9% to 81.7% indoors and from 63.7% to 89.3% outdoors from the raw to the most enriched prompt. Local No-CoT inference is the fastest configuration, with mean latency close to 0.22 s, while CoT substantially increases inference time. These findings suggest that lightweight prompt-side preprocessing can narrow the local--cloud performance gap and support low-latency IoT analytics in smart environments.

Context-Aware Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of IVF Laboratory Environmental Conditions

IVF pregnancy rates are routinely modeled using patient-level variables, while high-resolution laboratory environmental data remain underutilized. We show that this is a missed opportunity. Rather than relying on raw sensor averages, we engineer 55 context-aware temporal features, including rolling thermal stability, simultaneous temperature-humidity adherence, peak stress duration, and post-stress recovery speed, that capture the dynamics of incubator microenvironments. On 61 weeks of data from an Asian IVF clinic, these features reduce cross-validated prediction error to 1.27%, compared to 3-5% for raw averages. We then train a hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression model that shares environmental effects across an Asian and a Northern European clinic via partial pooling, while preserving site-specific baselines. On held-out data from the Northern European clinic, the model achieves R2 = 0.86 and a 64% error reduction for the 35-39 age group over a naive baseline, demonstrating that structured environmental monitoring contains clinically meaningful, transferable signal.

Open-access model for detecting openly dumped dispersed municipal solid waste from crowdsourced UAV imagery in Sub-Saharan Africa

Managing municipal solid waste in rapidly urbanizing Sub-Saharan Africa remains challenging due to dispersed informal dumping and limited high-resolution datasets for spatial monitoring. We present an open-access deep learning model for automated detection of openly dumped dispersed solid waste via crowdsourced UAV imagery, trained and evaluated across 29 regions in 10 countries, encompassing diverse environmental contexts. A deep learning model trained on manually annotated image tiles achieved excellent performance in detecting openly dumped dispersed solid waste across all study regions. Predicted distributions reveal heterogeneous accumulation patterns, ranging from localized hotspots - often along waterways, where waste can exacerbate flood and public health risks - to more dispersed litter across urban areas. Waste accumulation is most strongly associated with population density and indicators of lack of local infrastructure access, whereas its relationship with broader measures of regional development is weaker, highlighting the importance of fine-scale data for understanding localized waste dynamics. By releasing the model, this study provides a ready-to-use tool for UAV imagery collected by municipalities and local mapping communities, enabling openly dumped dispersed solid waste monitoring without extensive technical expertise. This approach empowers local practitioners to convert UAV imagery into actionable insights, supporting targeted interventions and improved municipal solid waste management across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Deep Learning-Enabled Dissolved Oxygen Sensing in Biofouling Environments for Ocean Monitoring

The escalating climate crisis and ecosystem degradation demand intelligent, low-cost sensors capable of robust, long-term monitoring in real-world environments. Absolute dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is a key parameter for predicting climate tipping points. Inexpensive optoelectronic sensors based on microstructured polymer films doped with phosphorescent dyes could be readily deployable; however, signal drift and marine biofouling remain major challenges. Here, we introduce a sensing paradigm that combines camera-based DO sensors with a visual transformer (ViT)-based physics-informed neural network (PINN) for high-fidelity sensing under biofouling conditions. Training and testing data were obtained from an algae-laden water tank over 14 days to capture accelerated biofouling. The ViT-PINN, which embeds the Stern-Volmer (SV) equation into the loss function, reduces mean average error (MAE) by 92% and 89% compared to classical statistical and ML approaches, achieving ~2 umol/L absolute error. A deep ensemble further quantifies predictive uncertainty, enabling self-diagnostic sensing.