A Unified Particle Filter LSTM for Data-Driven Process Simulation

Data-driven process simulation aims to generate realistic case trajectories from historical event logs without requiring an explicitly specified model of the underlying dynamics. Deep sequence models can capture complex temporal dependencies through next-activity probabilities and conditional time distributions. However, event logs provide only a partial view of the underlying process state, often recording activity completions without the corresponding service-start times. Consequently, the same observed process history may be consistent with multiple plausible latent process conditions, whereas standard recurrent models compress each process prefix into a single deterministic recurrent state. We propose a Unified Particle Filter LSTM (Unified PF-LSTM) that maintains and sequentially updates a weighted set of recurrent-state hypotheses. We summarize this particle belief using its weighted mean and learned features based on the moment-generating function. The resulting representation is used to predict a categorical distribution over the next activity and conditional quantiles of the current activity's sojourn time. The framework is trained end-to-end from event-log data and evaluated on three real-world emergency department datasets. The results show that the proposed framework consistently outperforms the considered data-driven baselines in reproducing routing, duration, and system-level behavior across all datasets, with particularly strong gains in settings where complex process dynamics are only partially reflected in the available event logs.

Mind the Long Tail: Understanding the Difficulty of Delay Detection in Business Processes

The early detection of delayed cases in business processes is a critical capability for organizations. Predictive process monitoring (PPM) supports this task by using historical event logs to predict the remaining time of ongoing cases, enabling timely interventions to avoid missed deadlines and service level violations. Although remaining time prediction has advanced considerably through sophisticated deep learning architectures, little is known about the intrinsic difficulty of delay detection itself. Since performance is typically assessed using aggregate metrics, prior work provides limited insight into how models perform across the target distribution, especially on the operationally most critical cases with large delays. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the difficulty of delay detection. Across 14 event logs, we show that remaining times are typically strongly right-skewed, with only a small fraction of cases exhibiting large delays. Existing models capture the mode of this distribution well but perform poorly on high-delay cases. We further uncover pronounced heteroscedasticity, showing that predictive uncertainty increases with delay magnitude. Based on these findings, we evaluate approaches to mitigate the imbalance problem, but find only limited benefits, suggesting that the key underlying problem may not be imbalance but higher uncertainty associated with delayed cases. We show that this correlation can be exploited to substantially improve the identification of delayed cases. Overall, our work provides new insights into the sources of difficulty in delay detection and identifies uncertainty-aware modeling as a promising direction for future PPM research.

Framework for Grouping Local Process Models

Local Process Models (LPMs) are an underexplored concept in process mining. LPMs describe patterns in event data considering sequence, choice, concurrency, and loop. In recent years, process mining has proved successful in the analysis and improvement of operational processes. More often than not, surprising findings are found when one does not consider the full process, making LPMs and their discovery highly valuable. However, similar to other pattern mining approaches, LPM discovery algorithms face the problems of model explosion and model repetition, i.e., the algorithms may create hundreds if not thousands of LPMs, and subsets of them are close in structure or behavior. Practically, no analyst would be able to comb through thousands of LPMs leading to using a sample of LPMs that are easily accessible. The current sentiment is that the top-scoring LPMs form the optimal sample to be presented. However, different applications should demand a different optimal sample. With this work, we show that if the goal of the mined LPMs is to understand a process, using the top-scoring LPMs as an optimal sample is a poor choice because of high repetition. We propose a framework for grouping LPMs and creating an optimal sample by taking one representative LPM for each group. We measure similarity between models via established process model similarity measures or by comparing the context in which an LPM appears. The context is formed using data attributes available in the underlying event logs. We demonstrate the usefulness of grouping on multiple event logs by comparing repetition and coverage between samples comprised of the top-scoring models and the representatives of discovered groups.

Agent Behavior Mining: Generative AI Agent Governance in Business Processes

As organizations increasingly deploy generative AI agents to automate business processes, they face a governance dilemma: although these agents can increase operational flexibility, their non-deterministic nature challenges the control and standardization that Business Process Management seeks to enforce. This paper addresses this \emph{invisible autonomy risk} by introducing \emph{Agent Behavior Mining}, a governance capability that enables the application of process mining techniques to render generative AI agent decision-making observable and traceable. We (1) improve the understanding of generative AI agent behavior through an event data model that translates granular agent activities -- including reasoning traces, tool usage, and token costs -- into standardized process logs; (2) instantiate the data model in a multi-agent order-to-cash implementation, demonstrating how process managers can leverage agent logs to detect policy deviations and quantify operational variability; and (3) evaluate the perceived practical utility of the approach in an exploratory study with 18 industry practitioners. The results indicate that practitioners view behavioral transparency as a prerequisite for trust and consider the ability to examine agent reasoning as an important governance requirement for the next generation of AI-driven business processes.

LLM-Orchestrated Conformance Checking in Stroke Care Without Computer-Interpretable Guidelines

Objective: Conformance checking in healthcare seeks to assess whether patient care pathways adhere to clinical guidelines. However, its practical application often depends on the availability of formal, machine-interpretable representations of guidelines, such as Computer-Interpretable Guidelines (CIGs), which are seldom available in real-world clinical settings. Methods: This work introduces a modular framework based on the orchestration of Large Language Models (LLMs) to support medical conformance checking directly from unstructured clinical and guideline texts, without requiring predefined CIGs. The proposed architecture integrates multiple LLMs and supporting components to extract patient traces from clinical discharge letters, identify normative rules from textual clinical guidelines, translate these rules into executable scripts, and compute a Trace Conformance Indicator to quantify compliance within the event log. Results: The framework was implemented and evaluated in the stroke care domain at the neurological ward of Alessandria Hospital. Hundreds of patient traces were automatically extracted from hospital data and assessed against 50 rules derived from the reference guideline. The analysis showed that more than 86\% of the available traces were conformant. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the feasibility of using orchestrated LLMs for practical healthcare conformance analysis. At the same time, the study provides evidence of a high level of adherence to stroke care guidelines at Alessandria Hospital.