Recent advances in machine learning have produced probabilistic weather forecasting models comparable to state-of-the-art numerical weather predictors. But no model consistently dominates spatio-temporally, and relative performance is highly context-dependent. This motivates adaptive methods for combining multiple forecasts to obtain improvements and robustness. While combined forecasts have been proposed in the literature, these are achieved either through supervised learning or through prediction with expert advice methods. We introduce AdaWeather, an adaptive framework that combines many probabilistic forecasts using both machine learning as well as mixture of experts to arrive at a unified improved probabilistic forecast. While traditional expert methods develop the regret bounds with respect to the best single expert in hindsight, we extend the algorithm and analysis to show our method has logarithmic regret compared to the best static mixture of experts in hindsight. Empirically, we focus on forecasting temperature, and observe improvements over existing methods.
In Orabona and Pál [2016], we introduced the shifted KT potentials, to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the parameter-free learning with expert bound. In this short technical note, I show that this is equivalent to changing the prior in the Krichevsky--Trofimov algorithm. Then, I show how to use the same idea to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the data-independent bound for the Squint algorithm.