CausalGraphX: A Counterfactual Graph Neural Network Framework for Explainable Systemic Risk Assessment

The interconnected nature of global financial systems makes them vulnerable to systemic risks, where the failure of a few institutions can trigger catastrophic cascading defaults. Traditional risk models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dynamics of these networks. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promise in modeling relational data, they primarily learn correlative patterns and function as black boxes, offering little insight into the causal mechanisms of shock propagation. This limitation is critical for regulators who require explainable models to perform stress tests and devise effective interventions. We introduce CausalGraphX, a novel framework that integrates GNNs with counterfactual reasoning to provide explainable assessments of systemic risk. CausalGraphX employs a Graph Attention mechanism to learn representations of institutional vulnerability and uses an adversarial regularization technique to ensure these representations capture causal drivers rather than spurious correlations. Furthermore, we propose an optimization-based approach to generate counterfactual explanations, answering questions such as, "What minimum capital injection would have prevented Bank A's default under a specific stress scenario?" We validate CausalGraphX on large-scale synthetic financial networks. Our results demonstrate that CausalGraphX significantly outperforms traditional and deep learning baselines in predicting cascading defaults while providing sparse, plausible, and actionable counterfactual explanations.

Clue-Guided Money Laundering Group Discovery

Money Laundering Group Discovery (MLGD) aims to identify hidden criminal groups and recover their complete structures in large-scale financial networks. Existing graph anomaly detection methods mainly produce node-level risk alerts, while global group discovery methods passively search for suspicious groups over the whole network. Both are mismatched with real Anti-money-laundering (AML) investigations, where analysts usually start from a concrete clue and gradually expand the investigation to recover the responsible group. To address this gap, we propose Clue-Guided Group Discovery (CGGD), where a laundering group is progressively recovered from an initial clue set through analyst interaction. We further propose Clue2Group, a framework that first constructs a compact local investigation context to reduce noise and preserve chain-like and cycle-like laundering structures. It then estimates a clue-conditioned local risk field with a multi-semantic local-temporal GNN, and finally integrates risk, structural, and prior-pattern evidence to recover a coherent laundering group. Experiments on two large-scale AML benchmarks show that Clue2Group provides a practical clue-driven analysis framework for AML investigations, offering a feasible step toward bridging the gap between graph-based AML research and real investigation workflows.