The state evolution of a complex system arises jointly from object laws, relational propagation, domain conservation, and unmodeled error. Forcing all sources into one black box makes mechanism attribution and constraint preservation unauditable; forcing every mechanism into one equation family discards mature domain solvers. We propose SD-GWM, a Structural Dynamics Graph World Model as an executable structural contract: nodes declare self-dynamics S, edges declare neighbor graph-coupled dynamics N---both fixed-form mechanism assets (rules, ODEs, solvers) calibrating only authorized parameters. An optional bounded residual R concentrates learnability, while a global projection maps states to feasibility, enforcing constraints without guaranteeing accuracy gains. On eight pre-registered research questions, SD-GWM delivers (i) heterogeneous integration: rules and solvers plug in natively; (ii) semantic fidelity: disabling R preserves source semantics bit-for-bit, with four theory properties under explicit proof/empirical boundaries; (iii) auditable governance: stepwise traces enable counterfactual fault localization (top-1 = 1.0) without post-hoc approximations. On a semi-synthetic flood testbed and USGS streamflow, SD-GWM reduces constraint violations to floating-point tolerance in analytical tests and to zero in semi-synthetic and real-data cases. Persistence matches SD-GWM in calm periods, but during a 254-day extreme-flood shift persistence and all neural baselines collapse (90-min RMSE 892-3007 cfs) while SD-GWM holds at 108 cfs (8-28x gain). The bounded residual cuts RMSE ~50% only under backbone bias. We position SD-GWM not as a universally superior forecaster, but as a verifiable substrate for auditable, constraint-safe spatiotemporal mining.
Compound flooding in managed coastal systems is influenced by hydrological conditions and water-management activity observed across multiple monitoring stations. Current forecasting models can capture temporal dependencies with low average errors, but global error metrics may conceal poor reproduction of prolonged high-water plateaus that are relevant to flood early warning. Because hydrometeorological and operational signals are distributed across heterogeneous gages, single-site records do not fully represent high-water dynamics. Nevertheless, unconstrained fusion of cross-site signals can degrade the stability of local temporal forecasts. This work proposes an anchored forecasting framework that incorporates cross-site information through state- and lead-dependent bounded residual corrections. A multi-source regime representation constructed from hydrometeorological and operational observations adaptively calibrates inter-site relationships and correction scales, enabling targeted cross-site adjustment while preserving the local temporal forecast as a stable anchor. Beyond conventional global error statistics, we evaluate event-scale high-water characteristics through the temporal alignment of forecasted and observed high-water processes. Experiments demonstrate that selectively integrating multi-station dynamic conditions improves the prediction reliability of sustained high-water plateaus while maintaining high accuracy during routine hydrological conditions, supporting flood early warning and water-management decision support.
Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li +20physics.geo-ph cs.LG
Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer. Although artificial intelligence methods have advanced flood prediction and model-error correction, most existing studies have not explicitly represented the tacit expert rules, review checkpoints, and workflow constraints that connect model outputs to operational warning decisions. To address this issue, we propose HydroAgent, a skill-orchestrated agent framework that embeds Large Language Models (LLMs) into a model-driven flood forecasting workflow, where each skill encodes explicit rules to bound LLM reasoning. We validated its effectiveness using five state-of-the-art LLMs in the South Yamhill River basin. Our results demonstrate that prior judgment captures observed peak flow and flood volume within 5% tolerance in 10 and 11 out of 14 events, with 5-fold cross-validation over 129 events yielding Pearson correlations of 0.62 and 0.84. Building on a high-baseline scheme library (average KGE 0.890), the guided scheme selection further improves KGE by 0.023-0.154, with simulated peak flow and flood volume falling within the prior judgment ranges for 14 and 13 out of 14 events. All five tested LLMs successfully execute the HydroAgent workflow with comparable judgment accuracy (40%-80%), while showing moderate performance variation and substantial cost differences. HydroAgent does not aim to replace human forecasters; instead, it translates their tacit expertise into an auditable and reproducible workflow, streamlining analytical steps and supporting more informed decision-making. This skill-orchestrated paradigm demonstrates how explicit rule boundaries can guide language model reasoning to complement physically based simulation in next-generation flood forecasting.
Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities. However, purely data-driven machine learning models often struggle in data-scarce environments and may violate fundamental hydrological principles. Standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can generate physically inconsistent predictions, particularly when extrapolating to extreme weather conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) framework that incorporates hydrological knowledge directly into the loss function of an LSTM model. Specifically, a Trend Alignment constraint penalizes directional inconsistencies between precipitation and discharge trends, improving model robustness without requiring complex hydrodynamic equations. This regularization encourages the model to learn physically plausible hydrograph behavior, even with limited training data, while enhancing reliability during peak flood events. Experimental results show that the proposed physics-informed model outperforms a standard LSTM baseline in data-scarce settings, increasing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.23 when trained on only 5% of the available data. Additional stress tests under simulated extreme climate scenarios demonstrate that the baseline model exhibits unstable behavior, whereas the physics-informed model maintains directional consistency and physical plausibility. Although accurately predicting extreme peak magnitudes remains challenging with limited data, the proposed approach substantially reduces unphysical fluctuations common in purely data-driven models. These findings demonstrate that simple physical constraints can significantly improve the reliability of deep learning models for real-time flood forecasting, offering a practical solution for ungauged basins and evolving climate conditions.