Pathology foundation models (PFMs) are increasingly used as general-purpose backbones, yet existing benchmarks cannot systematically diagnose their whole-slide cellular representation capabilities, including the decodability of cell-type information and the transferability of such information across tissue sections, datasets, and anatomical organs. We introduce CellPath-Bench, a cellular-resolution benchmark that evaluates frozen PFMs themselves. Following quality control of 52 candidate Xenium datasets, we construct a panel of 25 spatially aligned H\&E--Xenium tissue sections spanning 11 organs and 7,079,283 cells, harmonized into fine- and coarse-grained taxonomies. CellPath-Bench samples frozen WSI feature maps at registered nuclear coordinates and evaluates them using standardized multiclass linear probes. Cell Representation Advantage (CRA) measures the within-section advantage of nucleus-anchored representations over patch-level mean pooling, while Cell Representation Transferability (CRT) characterizes the generalization of cell-type decodability across tissue sections, datasets, and organs. We benchmark 30 pathology-specific and general-purpose foundation models through 304,920 runs across spatial readouts, magnifications, taxonomic granularities, and evaluation protocols. The results reveal substantial model-dependent differences in cell-type decodability and its cross-domain generalization, yielding distinct multidimensional capability profiles. CellPath-Bench provides a standardized framework for auditing cellular information in frozen PFM representations.
Yongcan Huang, Li Jiang, Ze Yu Liucs.LG physics.ao-ph
Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations that pose severe public health risks, yet forecasting rare, hazardous-level spikes remains a fundamental challenge. Time series foundation models (TSFMs), pretrained models offering zero-shot inference and efficient adaptation, perform strongly on general benchmarks, but their behavior under extreme out-of-distribution conditions is poorly understood. We present the first systematic benchmark comparing six TSFM configurations (zero-shot TimesFM, Chronos-2, Moirai-2, and Time-MoE, plus LoRA fine-tuned Chronos-2 and Time-MoE) against fully-trained baselines (LSTM, BiLSTM, Transformer) and naive persistence on a 12-year (2013--2025) hourly PM$_{2.5}$ dataset covering 1,375 wildfire incidents across 79 California monitoring sites. A leave-one-incident-out (LOIO) protocol evaluates generalization to unseen fires, using MAE, RMSE, and exceedance F1 at EPA AQI thresholds across 6-, 12-, and 24-hour horizons. Results reveal a consistent hierarchy. The BiLSTM achieves the lowest MAE ($5.16\,μg/m^3$) and the highest exceedance F1 at every threshold, including the Hazardous band ($>225.5\,μg/m^3$), reaching 0.63 versus at most 0.54 for any foundation model. Zero-shot TSFMs improve on persistence only modestly, and zero-shot Chronos-2 exhibits severe RMSE tail instability ($23.4\,μg/m^3$, negative $R^2$) from sporadic large errors. LoRA fine-tuning substantially improves both adapted families and largely repairs this instability, yet no foundation model surpasses the trained recurrent baselines on any metric. These findings challenge the assumption that larger pretrained models universally dominate environmental forecasting and provide actionable deployment guidance for wildfire air quality prediction.