Kalman Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Fault Detection in Combined Cycle Gas Turbines

Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) play a key role in modern power generation, offering both high efficiency and reduced environmental impact. However, their complex thermo-fluid and mechanical interactions complicate fault detection, particularly when labeled fault data are scarce. In this paper, we introduce the Kalman Prototypical Network (KPN), a metric-based few-shot learning (FSL) framework specifically tailored for CCGT fault diagnosis. We model the evolution of class prototypes as latent stochastic states in a dynamic system to reduce episodic variance and improve robustness in embedding representation. Synthetic data sets generated with a high-fidelity Modelica-based dynamic simulation of an offshore CCGT system were used, simulating both normal operation and progressive leak faults under transient conditions. Application of the proposed framework on simulated leak fault detection tasks demonstrate that KPN outperforms conventional FSL methods such as Matching Networks, Relation Networks, and MAML in both accuracy and stability under varying support and query configurations. The proposed framework significantly improves training convergence and generalization by stabilizing class representations, making it well-suited for real-world CCGT fault detection where labeled data is limited.

Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

Machine learning-based predictive emissions monitoring systems offer a practical alternative to direct emissions measurement, but their deployment across gas turbine fleets is challenging when emissions labels are available for only a small subset of assets. In this work, a trust-aware probabilistic framework is proposed for fleet-level gas turbine NOx prediction under limited labelled supervision. The framework combines a multi-head recurrent prediction model with learned confidence estimation, ensemble-based uncertainty quantification, auxiliary feature prediction, feature-space distance analysis, and operating-range diagnostics. These signals are calibrated on labelled data to produce interpretable per-sample trust scores, providing indicators of prediction reliability on unlabelled turbines, supporting the identification of predictions that should be treated with greater caution during fleet-level deployment. Confidence-based filtering reduces MAE from 0.202 at full coverage to 0.070 for the highest-confidence 10\% of predictions, demonstrating that confidence estimates are meaningfully related to prediction error. Unlabelled and out-of-distribution samples exhibit increased uncertainty and reduced confidence, indicating that the framework responds appropriately to distributional shift. The results show that the proposed trust framework provides actionable reliability information for emissions prediction on unlabelled turbines, supporting more transparent and trustworthy deployment of PEMS across industrial fleets.