The use of variable well perforation and injection strategies can improve the efficiency of geological carbon storage operations. We develop a new multimodal auto-regressive transformer surrogate to model these operations under geological uncertainty. A modified SEAM CO2 geomodel, which involves a faulted system with three stacked aquifers, is considered. The two injection wells are perforated in stages, from bottom to top, with the stage durations and individual well injection rates treated as control variables. The surrogate model processes three input modalities - the 3D geomodel, scalar parameters characterizing relative permeability functions, and control variables - through separate encoders. These are fused via self-attention in a transformer encoder, and a temporal decoder generates predictions auto-regressively through encoder-decoder cross-attention. The surrogate is trained, using 4000 GEOS flow simulations, to predict saturation and pressure at monitoring locations, total injected and mobile CO2 mass, and saturation footprints. For a new test set, involving randomly sampled geomodels and control variables, the surrogate achieves a median saturation MAE of 0.028 and median relative errors of 0.2-5% for the other quantities of interest. Importantly, it captures the switch from rate to bottom-hole-pressure control. The surrogate model is used within a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation procedure for a synthetic true model under three operational strategies. Substantial uncertainty reduction is achieved for key metaparameters, particularly the fault permeabilities. Posterior predictions for saturation footprints and total injected and mobile CO2 mass are also shown to be generally consistent with true model results.
Training operator-learning models for large-scale problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging due to the curse of dimensionality, memory constraints, and limited training data. These challenges arise in many scientific and engineering applications, including subsurface flow, climate modeling, and geological carbon storage (GCS). In this work, we propose a scalable operator-learning framework based on the Karhunen-Loeve Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) and demonstrate its performance for modeling GCS. The model is trained on a dataset comprising 100 samples of large-scale simulations in a three-dimensional domain with 1.7 million cells and 50 time steps. The KL-DNN method constructs latent spaces using low-rank singular value decomposition of static properties and a nested Karhunen-Loeve expansion for dynamic pressure fields, enabling full-resolution predictions without subsampling or spatial coarsening. The KL-DNN model achieves an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.1 psi for pressure (0.04% relative error with respect to the average pressure in the domain) and RMSE of 0.0146 for CO2 saturation (5% relative error with respect to the average saturation inside the plume). The model requires 20 minutes of training on a single GPU, representing a 19% reduction in the pressure errors, 7% reduction in the saturation error, and a two-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to DeepONet trained on the same dataset. These results, along with inference time of less than one minute, establish the proposed model as a practical and accurate solution for large-scale PDE problems, enabling rapid uncertainty quantification, history matching, and real-time decision support.
Romal Ramadhan, Seyyed A. Hosseini, Larry W. Lakecs.LG physics.geo-ph
Accurate prediction of bottom-hole pressure (BHP) and CO2 plume migration is essential for safe geological carbon storage, yet practical simulations often rely on truncated domains where artificial boundaries distort pressure diffusion and CO2 saturation footprints. In this study, we evaluate how boundary-condition fidelity affects BHP and CO2 plume prediction by comparing ten reduced-domain boundary treatments against full-domain reference simulations in homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs. We test uniform pore-volume multipliers, transmissibility modifiers, corner-adjusted pore-volume corrections, layered corrections, and gradual modifiers using BHP RMSE, NRMSE, peak pressure deviation, and plume Intersection over Union (IoU) as performance metrics. Our results show that conserving corner pore volume is the most important requirement for truncated-domain modeling. We find that uniform treatments which neglect corner storage generate large pressure errors, with BHP RMSE of 362 to 382 psi in the homogeneous model and 250 to 304 psi in the heterogeneous model, and yield plume IoU values near 0.80 to 0.84, indicating roughly 16 to 20% of the combined plume area is misrepresented. Corner-adjusted scenarios substantially reduce pressure errors and raise plume IoU above 0.94, but we observe that transmissibility correction is not universally beneficial. In homogeneous reservoirs, uniform transmissibility adjustment improves pressure fidelity; in heterogeneous reservoirs, it can over-restrict flow across variable-permeability boundary faces, increasing BHP error and contracting the predicted plume. We find the gradual modifier with transmissibility correction provides the most consistent performance, achieving BHP NRMSE below 3.7% and plume IoU above 0.97 in both reservoir types.