Algorithmic statistics of retinal images

There has been a tremendous amount of image processing and machine learning research to measure and classify disease progression from live optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging of the retina. The images considered here are large, complex, three-dimensional (3-D) and difficult to visualize effectively. Many current supervised machine learning approaches, \emph{e.g.} neural networks, are non-metric meaning that any features or measurements generated can introduce systematic distortion that may be correlated with underlying non-meaningful physiological differences. Here we present a metric learning approach using the normalized compression distance (NCD) combined with anisotropic structure-enhancing filters to quantify and visualize the principal differences among a collection of 3-D retinal images. We validate the NCD-measured structural differences between pairs of images against the physician-measured change in visual field function, achieving a prediction error of $\sim$ 0.5 dB, more accurate than non-metric deep learning approaches. The normalized compression vectors (NCV) are proposed as a feature set measuring visual differences among a collection of 3-D microscopy images. The utility of the NCV for visualizing and measuring patterns of change is demonstrated for a human with moderate non-progressing glaucoma and for a non-human primate model using intraocular pressure setting manipulation. We conclude with a brief simulation of non-metric embedding features, \emph{e.g.} from neural networks, introducing class-correlated statistical distortion.

Beyond Point Estimates for Glaucoma Visual Field Forecasting with Diffusion Models

Forecasting visual fields (VFs) is critical for personalized monitoring and treatment planning in glaucoma. This is inherently uncertain due to heterogeneous disease progression and measurement variability, yet most existing methods produce single deterministic predictions that fail to represent this uncertainty. We formulate VF forecasting as a probabilistic prediction problem and the use of conditioned denoising diffusion models to generate distributions of plausible future VFs from longitudinal observations with irregular follow-up intervals. Experiments on two independent VF cohorts show that diffusion-based predictions produce well-calibrated distributions for clinically relevant VF measures. When reduced to a standard point-estimate, the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy compared to clinical baselines and prior learning-based methods. Our results highlight the advantages of distributional modeling for VF forecasting and support a shift from point-estimate prediction toward uncertainty-aware, clinically interpretable risk assessment in glaucoma.