Bo Qian, Yuting Wu, Shuang Zeng +3cs.LG cs.AI cs.CL
Credit assignment is challenging in long-horizon agentic reinforcement learning, where supervision often comes only from final rewards. Existing methods refine trajectory-level signals into step-level credits through step grouping or graph-based advantage estimation, but can overlook meaningful intermediate milestones. We propose MileGPO (Milestone Inference with Local Evidence for Graph-Based Policy Optimization), which derives process-level credit from grouped on-policy rollouts through three designs. Milestone Discovery identifies candidate milestones on successful rollouts and recurring traps on failed ones. Reliability-Calibrated Shaping (RCS) weights these candidates by outcome-based confidence, strengthening reliable milestones and traps while down-weighting uncertain ones. Progress-Contrastive Calibration (PCC) further tests whether a candidate reflects local progress and whether its incoming ansition outperforms observed alternatives from the same state.MileGPO requires neither auxiliary models nor additional environment interaction. Experiments on ALFWorld and WebShop show state-of-the-art performance and a small in-distribution to out-of-distribution gap on ALFWorld. Ablations and credit diagnostics indicate that reliability weighting, local progress, and same-state branch evidence complement milestone discovery and resolve ambiguous intermediate credit.
Many two-stage estimators assess the first-stage learner by prediction error, even when the next stage uses its residual. In control-function instrumental variables, that residual must preserve the latent control direction without removing the treatment variation that identifies the structural response. A scalar prediction score does not reveal how the learner allocates this variation. Under piecewise-smooth graph geometry, interpolation can suppress the control, whereas isotropic smoothing can leak systematic variation across boundaries. We formulate this as a variation-allocation problem and introduce Adaptive Anisotropic Instrumental Heat Flow (A-IHF). The method uses pilot treatment contrasts to adapt edge conductance, takes the complement of a sparse graph resolvent as the generated control, and selects candidates without consulting outcomes. For a linear control-function regression, the generated control is identified only by its span. Working in that projective geometry, we derive an exact finite-sample fidelity--relevance frontier, spectral identities for remaining treatment variation and coefficient distortion, and a lower bound for monotone fixed-graph residual filters. A connected construction proves that adapting conductance can remove the corresponding fixed-graph obstruction. In a 54-cell benchmark, the A-IHF family wins 32 cells; its guarded observational variant lowers mean nonlinear response error by 8.3%, with the largest gains in fractured designs. Controlled rewiring explains when the graph should be used, replaced by a fallback, or rejected. The resulting lesson is task-specific: a first stage for generated controls should be judged by control fidelity, downstream relevance, and graph compatibility together.