We revisit median-of-means estimation from a deterministic optimization viewpoint and develop a family of block-Lp estimators for robust learning with heavy-tailed and adversarially corrupted data. In a block contamination model with at least a fraction 1 minus epsilon of good blocks, we first show that every convex block M-estimator has worst-case robustness constant at least 1 divided by 1 minus 2 epsilon. This matches the classical median-of-means bound and proves that the trimmed-block oracle constant 1 divided by 1 minus epsilon cannot be attained within the convex class. We then introduce a nonconvex block-Lp family for p between 0 and 1 and derive finite-sample deterministic robustness bounds for all global minimizers. As p decreases from 1 toward 0, these bounds continuously approach the trimmed-block oracle constant. For sufficiently small p, the global minimizers coincide with those of the oracle under a mild separation condition. We also show that the block-Lp objectives have a benign landscape, with all local minima remaining close to the truth and no bad basins. Combining these results with block-level concentration yields sub-Gaussian deviation bounds under finite 2 plus delta moments and high-dimensional extensions to robust mean estimation and sparse regression.
Babak F. Dehkordi, Jeffrey L. Andrews, Andrew Jirasekstat.ME stat.ML
We propose a multivariate extension of the pseudo-Voigt profile-a weighted convex combination of Gaussian and Cauchy distributions-within a finite mixture modeling framework for robust model-based clustering and outlier detection. To ensure parsimony and coherence within clusters, shared location and scale parameters are imposed between the Gaussian and Cauchy components. Parameter estimation is carried out via an Expectation Maximization algorithm, with latent variables facilitating efficient likelihood-based inference. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated through simulation studies and applications to real-world data. Comparisons with established robust models, including mixtures of contaminated normal distributions, are provided to illustrate the model's clustering accuracy and outlier detection capabilities. The framework is shown to be particularly effective for data characterized by heavy-tailed behavior.
Heavy-tailed data arise in many domains where rare events carry disproportionate importance, such as imbalanced image datasets, financial returns, and weather extremes. Standard diffusion and flow-matching models typically begin from Gaussian noise or Gaussian source distributions, which yield tractable training targets but provide a poor inductive match for heavy-tailed data. We propose Heavy-Tailed Flow Matching via Random Clocks (HTFM), a framework that portrays heavy-tailed sources as mixtures of clock-conditioned Gaussian sources. Conditioning on a given clock path, the source distribution and flow are Gaussian; marginalizing over the clock gives a Gaussian scale mixture covering Gaussian, $α$-stable, and Student-t families. To make the clock-conditioned vector field practical, we encode the path-valued clock using truncated logsignature features, allowing the velocity field to adapt to the realized conditional space with negligible overhead. Empirically, on 2D imbalanced $α$-stable mixtures, CIFAR10-LT, and HRRR weather fields, HTFM improves mode coverage, sample quality, and tail-statistic recovery over Gaussian flow matching and competitive heavy-tailed baselines, while retaining the low-NFE sampling advantage of flow matching. Moreover, the random-clock formulation further provides a practical tail-control interface: by varying only the clock law or tail parameter, the same architecture can calibrate the ``heaviness'' of generated tails across different distribution families.
We develop a new, differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean. The main features of the balloon mean are that it is computationally tractable and enjoys robustness to outlying observations. It is based on an iterative clipping procedure over expanding Mahalanobis balls, or ``balloons.'' The method satisfies zero-concentrated differential privacy and depends on a small number of interpretable tuning parameters. We provide theoretical guarantees under heavy-tailed and contaminated elliptical models, characterizing its statistical performance and robustness to outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the balloon mean is robust to heavy-tailed and contaminated data, and outperforms existing differentially private mean estimators in contaminated settings.
Qianqian Lei, Soham Bonnerjee, Yuefeng Han +1stat.ML cs.LG math.ST
While algorithmic stability is a central tool for understanding generalization of learning algorithms, existing high-probability guarantees typically rely on uniform boundedness or sub-Gaussian/sub-Weibull tail assumptions, which can be overly restrictive for modern settings with heavy-tailed or unbounded losses. We develop a stability-based framework that requires only a finite $L_p$ moment condition. Our first contribution is sharp concentration inequalities for functions of independent random variables under $L_p$ constraints, extending McDiarmid's bounded-differences techniques beyond the classical regime. Leveraging these results, we derive sharp high-probability generalization bounds across a range of learning paradigms, including empirical risk minimization, transductive regression, and meta-learning. These guarantees show that $L_p$ stability suffices for robust generalization even when boundedness fails, substantially weakening the standard assumptions in the stability literature.
Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation in practice demands three properties simultaneously: heterogeneous effects $τ(x)$, calibrated uncertainty over them, and robustness to the heavy tails that contaminate real outcome data. Meta-learners (Künzel et al., 2019) give (i); causal forests and BART give (i)-(ii) with Gaussian-tail assumptions; no widely used tool gives all three. We present Bayesian X-Learner, an X-Learner built on cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes (Kennedy, 2020) with a full MCMC posterior over $τ(x)$ via a Welsch redescending pseudo-likelihood. On Hill's IHDP benchmark the default configuration attains mean $\sqrt{\varepsilon_{\mathrm{PEHE}}} = 0.56$ on 5 replications (lowest mean; differences from S-/T-/X-learners, full-config Causal BART, and a causal forest baseline are not significant at $α=0.05$, and rank ordering is unstable at 10 replications -- IHDP comparisons are competitive rather than dominant). On contaminated "whale" DGPs with up to 20-25% tail density, a one-flag extension (contamination_severity) that selects a Huber-$δ$ nuisance loss per Huber's minimax-$δ$ relation recovers RMSE $\approx 0.13$ with tight credible intervals (single-cross-fit 30-seed coverage 83% [Wilson 66%, 93%] at 20% density; modular-Bayes pooling with Bayesian-bootstrap nuisance draws restores nominal 95% coverage).