Xin Yu, Shuwei Huang, Jicheng Liu +4cs.LG stat.AP stat.ME
Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) measure the effect of a treatment on the distribution of an outcome, and their estimation at extreme quantile levels is of central interest in applications where the target quantiles lie far beyond the range of the data. For heavy-tailed potential outcomes, existing extremal QTE estimators rely on extrapolation combined with a causal extreme value index (EVI) estimator, but the resulting estimator is not invariant under a common location shift of the potential outcome distributions, even though the population QTE is. We address this issue in two steps. First, we adapt the location-invariant Fraga estimator of the EVI to the causal setting using inverse propensity score weighting. Second, we replace the original extrapolation formula with a difference-based scheme, under which the location parameter cancels when quantile differences are taken. The resulting QTE estimator is therefore location invariant. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed extremal QTE estimators, and provide a consistent variance estimator, leading to asymptotically valid inference. A simulation study confirms the location invariance, the stability with respect to the threshold, and the coverage of the proposed methods.
Restricted eigenvalue (RE) bounds govern stable recovery by norm-regularized estimators. For isotropic sub-Gaussian measurements, the benchmark sample size is $1+w(A)^2$, where $w(A)$ is the Gaussian width of the normalized descent cone. The COLT 2015 open-problem note (Banerjee et al., 2015) asked whether the same law follows for heavy-tailed designs from a uniform small-ball condition alone. We give an explicit and systematic negative answer to the general question as formulated there: the proposed law fails in its full dimension-free, arbitrary-set form, and the missing obstruction is simultaneous threshold occupancy. A constant-width polyhedral descent cone with fixed small-ball constants has zero empirical RE on every sample path up to half the ambient dimension. More generally, every finite range space admits exact threshold encoding in an arbitrarily narrow spherical cap and a lift to a full polyhedral descent-cone section. For every fixed threshold VC dimension $d$, as $β\downarrow0$, the sharp worst-case sample complexity is $Θ(β^{-1}[d\log(1/β)+\log(1/δ)])$. The separation persists under exact isotropy and all finite moments: on the same constant-width cone, Gaussian measurements succeed with $O(1+\log(1/δ))$ samples, whereas an isotropic heavy-tailed design fails pathwise for $n\lesssim\sqrt{p/\log p}$. Gaussian smoothing yields an everywhere-positive $C^\infty$ density while retaining arbitrarily poor RE. Under isotropy, a distribution-free fallback governed by affine dimension times squared enclosing radius is sharp on this family.
Jinran Wu, You-Gan Wang, Geoffrey J. McLachlanstat.ME stat.CO stat.ML
High-dimensional clustering is challenging when component distributions are both heavy-tailed and directionally asymmetric. We propose a deep skew-$t$ mixture model (DStMM), a hierarchical factor-analytic mixture based on the generalised-hyperbolic skew-$t$ normal mean--variance representation. A shared inverse-gamma mixing variable is propagated along each complete latent pathway, allowing heavy tails and directional asymmetry to be modelled jointly while preserving conditional Gaussianity. Each complete pathway therefore admits an exact GHST marginal representation. We formalise the reductions to symmetric deep $t$, Gaussian deep-mixture, and single-layer GHST factor-analytic models, discuss local non-identifiability and the implementation-level parameter-counting convention, and derive the conditional generalised inverse Gaussian law used for estimation. Estimation is carried out by a stochastic/Monte Carlo EM algorithm, with an explicit implementation-based parameter count for BIC architecture comparison. Simulation studies show that DStMM performs similarly to the symmetric robust model when skewness is absent but provides increasing gains as directional asymmetry becomes stronger, particularly under heavier tails; the same qualitative behaviour persists under smaller samples and unequal mixture proportions. Two real-data applications provide complementary evidence. On the UCI handwritten-digit benchmark, DStMM gives the strongest clustering performance under a common deep architecture, while on the Gas Sensor Array Drift data, DStMM improves on both deep Gaussian and deep $t$ alternatives and, under the implemented BIC criterion, selects a non-trivial second mixture layer. Together, these results support the value of propagating skewness and heavy-tail variation through a deep latent mixture while retaining an exact pathway-level likelihood.
We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics. The method is the Wasserstein gradient flow of the Lipschitz-regularized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence penalized by a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) discrepancy term: the Lipschitz-regularized KL divergence enables robust learning under minimal assumptions on the target distribution, while the CVaR penalty restores the velocity that otherwise vanishes prematurely in the under-sampled tails. The penalized flow admits a bounded but non-Lipschitz velocity field. This departs from the Lipschitz transport maps of standard generators, which preserve the tail behavior of a light-tailed source, and enables transport toward heavier-tailed targets. To define this flow on empirical measures, we derive the first-variation subgradients of CVaR from its Rockafellar-Uryasev representation, valid precisely where the classical density-based formula fails. The particle algorithm CVaR-GPA fine-tunes the output samples of any pre-trained model, without access to its architecture, and runs on an adaptive time horizon set by a kinetic-energy stopping criterion rather than a preset depth. On synthetic isotropic and anisotropic Student-$t$ target distributions, Neal's funnel distribution, and the real-world high-dimensional Fama-French 25 portfolio dataset, CVaR-GPA dramatically improves global and tail accuracy on heavy-tailed targets over the pre-trained baseline.
Tsallis statistics generalizes Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics through a single real parameter $q$ that controls the weight assigned to rare and frequent events. Originally proposed to describe physical systems with long-range correlations, multifractal geometry, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, the framework has become a recurring ingredient in modern artificial intelligence (AI): it underlies sparse attention mechanisms (\textsc{sparsemax} and $α$-\textsc{entmax}), maximum-entropy reinforcement learning with controllable exploration, robust and heavy-tailed probabilistic models, and a family of generalized loss functions and regularizers. This paper offers a structured perspective on where Tsallis statistics meets AI. We first review the mathematical core: $q$-entropy and its variational (maximum-entropy) foundation, the $q$-exponential and $q$-logarithm, the $q$-central limit theorem, $q$-Gaussian distributions, and their dynamical origin in superstatistics, emphasizing the properties that matter for machine learning. We then survey applications across softmax generalization, reinforcement learning, sequential and graph neural models, generative and probabilistic modeling, loss design, and optimization, extracting the recurring design pattern in each case: a tunable interpolation between dense/uniform and sparse/peaked behavior governed by $q$. We further argue that the heavy-tailed weight spectra and gradient-noise statistics empirically observed in deep networks are themselves nonextensive signatures, placing modern learning dynamics within the scope of $q$-statistics. Finally, we discuss methodological pitfalls, the relationship to information geometry and $q$-exponential families, and open directions, arguing that $q$ should be treated as a learnable inductive bias rather than a fixed hyperparameter.
Heavy-tailed distributions arise naturally in sequential decision-making problems such as financial investment, online advertising, and network management, where rare but extreme outcomes can dominate performance. Heavy-tailed bandits model online decision-making in these settings by assuming only that rewards $X$ satisfy $\mathbb{E}[|X|^{1+ε}]\leq u$, for some tail exponent $ε\in(0,1]$ and moment bound $u<+\infty$. However, most existing regret minimization algorithms require these parameters to be known. This assumption is particularly restrictive in practice: $ε$ and $u$ govern the frequency and magnitude of rare events and are therefore precisely the quantities that are hardest to infer reliably from limited observations. Motivated by an open problem posed by Genalti and Metelli at COLT 2025, we resolve the assumption-free adaptation problem for heavy-tailed bandits and characterize the price in the regret of not knowing the tail parameters. We first study adaptation to the moment bound $u$ for a fixed tail exponent $ε$. We prove that every algorithm unaware of $u$, or of any upper bound on it, must obey a sharp trade-off between its distribution-dependent and distribution-free regret guarantees. We then introduce a scheduled-exploration algorithm that requires no knowledge of $u$ and matches the resulting adaptation frontier up to logarithmic factors. Finally, we show that the same algorithm can be instanced without knowing $ε$ by calibrating its exploration schedule to the endpoint $ε=1$. It achieves sublinear regret for every fixed $ε>0$, while no algorithm can guarantee sublinear regret uniformly over all $ε\in(0,1]$. Altogether, our results resolve the COLT open problem without additional distributional assumptions and provide a sharp characterization of the statistical cost of adapting to unknown heavy tails.
The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.
Diffusion models have emerged as a leading framework for deep generative modeling. While the standard Gaussian formulation is theoretically convenient, its suitability for heavy-tailed datasets remains unclear. To address this, heavy-tailed diffusion models (HTDMs) extend the standard formulation by replacing the Gaussian distribution with a Student's t-distribution, thereby improving tail fidelity on heavy-tailed datasets. Although stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based sampling is possible in HTDMs, it has not been fully explored. In this paper, we propose an SDE-based sampler for HTDMs that explicitly incorporates a state-dependent diffusion coefficient. This state dependence naturally induces a self-regulating annealing mechanism by adaptively modulating the effective noise scale. We theoretically explore this mechanism and experimentally verify its necessity for reproducing samples from a heavy-tailed distribution.