Fisher8: Stabilizing Neural Heteroscedastic Regression via Output-Layer Fisher Geometry

Training neural networks to jointly predict mean and uncertainty estimates from noisy observations can be unstable, prompting a series of independent stabilization efforts. We argue that these interventions highlight a common underlying issue where gradient steps are poorly aligned with the geometry of the loss landscape. To better align updates with local curvature, we derive Fisher8, an output-layer gradient correction that reorients and rescales updates using Fisher geometry rather than Euclidean geometry. Unlike past stabilizers, Fisher8 introduces no data-dependent hyperparameters beyond learning rate and admits an approximate KL trust radius between successive predictive distributions. We show that prior stabilizers converge on overlapping components of this geometric correction. Across multidimensional regression and representation-learning tasks, Fisher8 obtains superior likelihood--error tradeoffs, predicts calibrated uncertainty estimates, and learns rich uncertainty-aware feature spaces.

A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with $β$-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.