Scalable and Versatile Identification for Hierarchical Structural Causal Models: A New Look at Project STAR

The STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio) experiment (1985, Tennessee, USA) is a landmark hierarchical dataset designed to assess the impact of class size on student outcomes, with observations nested within classes. To encode class-level interventions in such hierarchical settings, we develop a complete, scalable, open-source pipeline for Hierarchical Structural Causal Models (HSCM) that bridges symbolic identification and practical estimation. Our approach integrates graph transformations, pyAgrum's do-calculus for automatic identification of causal effects, adaptation of symbolic expression into closed-form HSCM formulas, and numerical estimation from fitted local probability models. A key innovation is our adapted Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), which decomposes pyAgrum's identified formulas into independent density, expectation, and marginalization tasks, enabling parallel and scalable computation. We validate the pipeline on canonical HSCM motifs and benchmark scenarios with known ground truth, then apply it to STAR kindergarten mathematics outcomes. The results show that flat baselines (ignoring hierarchy) recover associations but fail to encode class-level interventions, and that symbolic identification alone is not enough for practical Hierarchical Structural Causal inference; scalable estimation and numerical stability checks are central parts of the scientific object.

Generalized Hierarchical Conformal Prediction

Many prediction problems arise with data collected in groups. In this setting, hierarchical conformal prediction (HCP) (Lee et al., 2026) provides distribution-free prediction sets for a new observation from a previously unseen group under hierarchical exchangeability. In many applications, however, prediction is conducted only after a few observations from the group of interest have already been collected. Standard HCP cannot leverage these observations, as its required symmetry conditions do not hold in this setting. At the same time, the initial sample may still be too small for standard conformal prediction applied within the test group to be informative. We develop predictive inference methods for this setting. Our proposed method, Generalized HCP (GHCP), restores the relevant symmetry needed for conformal inference by assigning the test group a randomly "donated" reference group size. GHCP further leverages the initial test group observations to improve the quality of the nonconformity scores for prediction within that group. To improve efficiency, we introduce a variant that restricts the set of eligible donors. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method through simulations and an illustration on the American Community Survey dataset.

Non-Archimedean Polydisc Spaces and Applications to Optimisation

We propose a new framework for optimisation over non-Archimedean spaces inspired by Berkovich geometry. Specifically, we introduce polydisc spaces, which consists of products of closed balls over a non-Archimedean field. These spaces retain the rigid hierarchical structure of the non-Archimedean field whilst acquiring many desirable geometric features absent from it. We show that metric trees embed naturally into these spaces, demonstrating their capacity to represent hierarchical data. We study their metric geometry, establishing properties such as geodesic uniqueness, confirming their comaptibility with classical optimisation techniques. We further propose a class of real-valued functions given by linear combinations of absolute values of polynomials. These functions admit a piecewise polynomial description along geodesics and satisfy a universal approximation property. We formulate a theory of optimisation on polydisc spaces: we prove existence of minimisers and explore algorithms for finding them. We provide an accompanying open-source Julia library implementing the core objects and optimisation procedures introduced.