Inducing Task Models from Computer-Use Traces

Naturalistic computer-use traces, passively recorded screenshots and mouse or keyboard actions, are a valuable resource for deriving symbolic, auditable, and reusable models of how everyday work is done. Such models matter as computer-use agents enter real work, where agents need to learn how tasks are actually performed, and organizations need to audit and reuse that knowledge. However, inducing such task models is challenging, as activity is observed only as low-level events and real-world work is multi-threaded with interleaved goals. Existing methods assume a given task or a single workflow, and produce step-level summaries rather than structured task models. We introduce Task Model Induction (TMI), which (i) discovers the latent tasks in an unconstrained trace, disentangling concurrent activity, and (ii) for each latent task, induces a task model pairing a hierarchical objective model of recursive goal decomposition with a procedure model of the control flow that organized the execution. Intrinsically, on controlled human and agent trajectories, TMI recovers interleaved tasks with 0.974 agreement against ground-truth groupings and reconstructs 74.9% of the observed execution steps, far more than the strongest workflow induction baseline. Extrinsically, skills derived from TMI's task models improve held-out task accuracy by 30.0% over the strongest baseline.

hint$^2$: Hierarchical World Models for Inference-Time Temporal Logic Guidance

A central goal of robot learning is to enable robots to execute rich instructions specified at runtime. Large-scale language-conditioned policies have made substantial progress toward this goal, yet still struggle with temporal structure and safety constraints. Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) provides a powerful language to express complex, non-Markovian instructions. However, guiding learned manipulation policies toward LTL satisfaction remains challenging because modern policies generate short-horizon action chunks and replan in closed loop, while almost all LTL specifications are evaluated over long-horizon trajectories. In this paper, we introduce hint$^2$, a method for guiding short-horizon policies toward satisfying complex LTL specifications at inference time using hierarchical world models. Our key idea is to derive two separate guidance objectives using each world model's abstraction level. A high-level model predicts future action-induced transitions in task-relevant atomic propositions to guide progress through the LTL automaton, while a low-level dynamics model predicts immediate state evolution for accurate local safety guidance. Our results show that hint$^2$ overcomes the limitations of current LTL-guided diffusion methods, outperforms existing inference-time steering methods in CALVIN, and successfully completes instructions with complex liveness and safety constraints more elegantly than language-conditioned alternatives. Finally, we demonstrate that hint$^2$ can handle complex instructions on a real UR5e manipulator.

Renormalising Generative Models for Active Inference: Foundations, Derivations, and Verification

Active inference offers a unified framework for perception, learning, and action, but scaling discrete active-inference models to rich spatial and temporal domains remains difficult. Renormalising generative models (RGMs) address this challenge by composing discrete generative models across spatial and temporal scales, coarse-graining lower-level states and paths into higher-level causes for objects, events, and action. However, fully reproducing and adapting the framework remains difficult: the mathematical exposition is compact, and the reference implementations are deeply integrated within specialized software environments, leaving many algorithmic details implicit. This paper addresses these challenges by providing a self-contained, derivation-oriented account of RGMs together with an open, verified implementation. We explain how the hierarchy is built, how beliefs and actions are updated within it, and how information is passed between levels. Where the published equations and implementation differ in emphasis, we make those choices explicit and explain their modelling consequences. By clarifying the theory and separating it from its original implementation context, this work lowers practical barriers to entry and makes RGMs more transparent, auditable, and reproducible, providing a foundation for future quantitative evaluation and development on machine-learning benchmarks.

The Bayesian Reflex: A Predictive Coding Engine for Artificial Intelligence

Predictive coding offers a powerful theory of cortical computation, but corresponding scalable algorithmic implementations for artificial intelligence have remained elusive. This paper introduces the Bayesian reflex, a computational framework that directly instantiates predictive coding through three pillars: belief maintenance via hierarchical generative models, sequential Bayesian updating via prediction-error minimization, and uncertainty-driven action via active inference. We show that recent breakthroughs---ellipsoidal decomposition for exact $i.i.d.$ sampling, recursive Gaussian processes for deep hierarchical inference, and derivative-aware Bayesian optimization---provide the missing algorithmic ingredients. The resulting framework enables mathematically principled, scalable, and brain-inspired continual learning, perception, and decision-making. We illustrate its versatility through applications ranging from climate model evaluation to prime number discovery, offering a blueprint for truly adaptive artificial intelligence.

Exact computation of posterior distribution of mixture weights in hierarchical Bayesian models

Hierarchical mixture models are a powerful tool for modeling data generated from heterogeneous sources, particularly when the mixing proportion $\boldsymbol{w}$ itself is treated as a random variable with a Dirichlet or Beta-Liouville prior. Such models are widely employed in scenarios where uncertainty in class membership or data-generating processes must be probabilistically quantified. This paper studies the exact marginalization of the mixture weight. For the two-component case we give an $O(n^2)$ dynamic program -- and an $O(n \log^2 n)$ FFT variant -- for the marginal likelihood, and show that the exact posterior of the weight is a finite mixture of Beta distributions, delivering closed-form posterior summaries, credible intervals and per-observation local false-discovery rates without any sampling. For $K \ge 3$ components we give an exact joint dynamic program. The gain is largest in the small-sample regime the method is built for: on a real multilevel meta-analysis, a pathway-level dysregulation analysis of leukemia gene expression, and a leukemia-derived gene-panel benchmark with known ground truth, the exact interval for the signal proportion is calibrated where EM gives no interval at all (collapsing to a boundary) and Gaussian/Laplace approximations mis-cover, and it is two orders of magnitude faster than the sampler that would match it. On the large prostate-cancer benchmark, where every method has ample data, it agrees with locfdr on the gene ranking while adding a posterior interval for the null proportion.

Multi-Task Bayesian In-Context Learning

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.