Post-hoc Alignment of LLM-judges to Human Judgment Distribution

The LLM-as-a-judge (LLMaJ) framework offers a cost-effective and reproducible solution for automatic evaluation. However, current evaluation practices typically compare LLMaJ judgments against aggregated ground-truth labels, overlooking the valuable information contained in Human Label Variation (HLV). Inspired by an increasing line of work that proposes to leverage HLV, we systematically study LLMaJ performance on predicting both a single, aggregated ground truth hard-label and unaggregated soft-labels that represent Human Judgment Distributions (HJD). Our results across five diverse datasets reveal that while LLMs achieve near human-level performance at hard-label prediction on most tasks, they exhibit poor performance when predicting soft-labels. To address this limitation, we propose NAPHA (eNtropy-Aware Post-Hoc Alignment), a simple yet effective lightweight post-hoc alignment method that matches the LLM distribution to the HJD by first assigning an instance to a discrete entropy class and then routing it to specialized, trained alignment models. We find that NAPHA consistently improves soft-labels prediction across base LLM models and datasets, with particularly strong gains on high-entropy instances where capturing diverse human perspectives is most critical. We also show via oracle experiments that improving entropy class prediction can substantially enhance NAPHA's practical effectiveness.

Selection Shapes the Boundary: A Preregistered Replication of Monotonicity and Label Agreement in Unselected NLI Populations

Prior work on human label variation (HLV) in natural language inference (NLI) has often relied on re-annotation resources that select items by disagreement level. An earlier study (arXiv:2607.15870) found that hypotheses containing non-upward monotonicity operators showed lower label agreement in ChaosNLI (Cliff's delta = -0.284), which is restricted to items whose majority label carries exactly three of five votes. We preregistered a replication of this boundary in the unselected populations that ChaosNLI was drawn from: the SNLI and MultiNLI development sets, using the same operator tagger and a four-level ordinal agreement outcome. The registered prediction fails. All seven contrasts return a positive Cliff's delta (non-upward items agree slightly more, not less), the only significant confirmatory contrast has the opposite sign to the registration, and every effect is far below our smallest effect size of interest (0.10). Robustness checks support the measurement: simulated tagger misclassification shrinks the effects rather than manufacturing them, and a manual re-tagging audit reaches four-class agreement of 0.875 on a fresh 200-item sample. We conclude that the earlier negative boundary is plausibly a structure conditional on low-agreement selection rather than a population-level property, and that HLV structure claims built on selected re-annotation resources should state their selection conditional explicitly.