Free-Probability Kernels for Zero-Rollout Hyperparameter Selection in Reservoir Computing

Reservoir computing (RC) couples a fixed recurrent dynamical system with a trained lightweight readout, but this efficiency is partly lost during hyperparameter selection: the recurrent gain, input scale, and leakage rate determine the reservoir's stability and temporal processing regime and are usually tuned through many rollouts. We introduce a deterministic, pilot-informed selector for leaky linear reservoirs followed by coordinate-wise nonlinear features. Free probability yields cross-lag propagation coefficients that summarize how the reservoir mixes past inputs. In the large-width limit, these coefficients define a deterministic temporal kernel that approximates the finite-reservoir feature geometry. Kernel ridge regression on a short labelled pilot sequence therefore ranks candidate operating regimes without instantiating or rolling out a reservoir, and the selected configuration transfers across widths. Across ten synthetic temporal benchmarks, zero-rollout selection obtains a mean deployment score of $0.772$, compared with $0.774$ for exhaustive simulation-based search, while avoiding $156\,600$ selection rollouts. With a small rollout budget, the proposed ranking provides the strongest mean performance at every tested budget and reaches the exhaustive reference using $4.8\%$ of its rollout cost. On four public electricity-transformer-temperature (ETT) forecasting datasets, five retained candidates recover the exhaustive operating point on three datasets. On multivariate cellular-traffic forecasting, 15 rollouts per cell reach the 462-rollout exhaustive reference and outperform random search and Bayesian optimization at low budgets. These results position free-probability kernels as deterministic surrogates for selecting reservoir operating regimes when validation rollouts are scarce.

Dynamics Models for Offline Hyperparameter Selection in Real-World RL

A key obstacle to deploying reinforcement learning in real-world systems is hyperparameter selection, particularly when simulators are unavailable and online experimentation is costly. Prior work has proposed calibration models trained on offline data to approximate environment dynamics and enable offline hyperparameter selection, but these methods have so far been evaluated only in simple simulated settings. In this paper, we present the first application of calibration models in a real-world industrial setting: a municipal water treatment plant. We evaluate several calibration model approaches, including a k-nearest neighbors model with a Laplacian distance metric, on high-dimensional, non-stationary sensor data for nexting prediction tasks. Our results show that these models can generate realistic long-horizon rollouts and recover meaningful hyperparameter sensitivity trends. We further examine how calibration models scale to year-long datasets, how they support the selection of fine-tuning learning rates for pre-trained agents, and how robust they are under distribution shift. Overall, our findings provide a proof of concept for using offline dynamics models to support RL deployment in real-world environments, while highlighting important practical challenges for future work.

Fuzzing Large Language Models to Elicit Hidden Behaviours

Sleeper agents are the canonical model organism of deception: models trained to behave normally but to emit an unsafe behaviour on a specific trigger. Eliciting that behaviour without knowing the trigger has not been studied systematically. We study fuzzing: injecting Gaussian noise into a model's weights or residual-stream activations and checking whether the perturbed outputs reveal the behaviour. On 6 backdoored models (7B-13B) we compare both forms of fuzzing head-to-head against temperature-sampling baselines. Fuzzing elicits the hidden behaviour more often than temperature sampling on 4 of 6 models (up to ~6x on OpenHermes-13B), and which form wins depends on the task, so both are worth running. Elicitation is uneven across each method's hyperparameter grid: a uniform sweep gives only a few percent on most models, while the best cell is 2-10x higher, so the bottleneck is hyperparameter selection, not the technique. To select hyperparameters without ground-truth access, we use a cheap proxy task (in-context secret elicitation, where a base64-encoded secret is placed in the system prompt for the model to hide) and run Thompson sampling on it to pick candidate cells, which we evaluate on the real backdoor. On the four models that can decode the secret, proxy-selected cells raise activation-fuzzing elicitation ~4x over the uniform-sweep mean (recovering ~70% of the best-cell rate on the best performing model) and weight-fuzzing by 1.3-1.8x. To our knowledge this is the first systematic study of fuzzing on sleeper-agent backdoors and the first to show proxy-task hyperparameter selection transferring to real-task elicitation. We also propose reporting such results as a (uniform-baseline, proxy-selected, oracle) triple, since these are three distinct claims that prior work has often blurred.

Enhancing RL Generalizability in Robotics through SHAP Analysis of Algorithms and Hyperparameters

Despite significant advances in Reinforcement Learning (RL), model performance remains highly sensitive to algorithm and hyperparameter configurations, while generalization gaps across environments complicate real-world deployment. Although prior work has studied RL generalization, the relative contribution of specific configurations to the generalization gap has not been quantitatively decomposed and systematically leveraged for configuration selection. To address this limitation, we propose an explainable framework that evaluates RL performance across robotic environments using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to quantify configuration impacts. We establish a theoretical foundation connecting Shapley values to generalizability, empirically analyze configuration impact patterns, and introduce SHAP-guided configuration selection to enhance generalization. Our results reveal distinct patterns across algorithms and hyperparameters, with consistent configuration impacts across diverse tasks and environments. By applying these insights to configuration selection, we achieve improved RL generalizability and provide actionable guidance for practitioners.