Standard offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms typically assume that the actions in the dataset are observed without error. However, in many real-world applications, the true actions are unobserved and only noisy proxies are available, causing existing RL methods to yield biased and potentially misleading conclusions. We study off-policy evaluation in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes with hidden actions. By leveraging the next-state variable as a natural proxy for the unobserved action, we establish identification of the policy value and propose an influence-function-based estimator called LURE (Learning from the Unseen: Robust Estimator). LURE is multiply robust, remaining consistent under several combinations of correctly specified nuisance components, and is asymptotically normal, enabling valid statistical inference. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address offline RL with hidden actions. We demonstrate LURE's effectiveness through simulations and a sepsis management application using the MIMIC-III database.
Xin Wang, R. Tyrrell Rockafellar, Xuegang +1cs.LG cs.AI
As constrained learning becomes increasingly common, models are trained under explicit feasibility requirements to enforce fairness, safety, robustness, regulariza- tion, and physics or logic constraints. Understanding how training samples in- fluence the model solution (e.g., learned parameters) is crucial for interpretability and robustness. The classical influence function (IF) estimates sample contribu- tions via local sensitivity analysis, measuring how the solution changes when a specific training sample is perturbed or removed. However, IF becomes unreli- able in constrained settings: data perturbations can reshape both the objective and the feasible region, leading to estimates that violate feasibility. In response, we propose the Directional Influence Function (DIF), a novel estimator that explicitly incorporates these constraints into influence estimation. DIF formulates the opti- mality conditions of constrained learning as a variational inequality (VI) and ana- lyzes how perturbing training data affects this VI. We validate DIF on constrained linear regression and demonstrate that it recovers leave-one-out retraining results, whereas IF and penalty-based IF exhibit significant bias. We further apply DIF to fairness-constrained CNNs, where DIF accurately predicts test loss changes under data removal and aligns closely with actual retraining. Our results establish DIF as an efficient and reliable tool for data attribution in constrained learning.
Currently, most foundation models can reproduce or strongly depend on copyrighted training content, but output similarity alone is insufficient for infringement detection, because similar outputs may also arise from public-domain concepts, common stylistic conventions, or ordinary statistical generalization. In this paper, we develops a unified post-hoc detection framework that treats copyright infringement evidence as a counterfactual conditional distribution shift: a protected target is suspicious when the model's behavior under aligned conditions would change measurably if that target were included in, or removed from, the training process. We formalize this view through conditional differential privacy and introduce Dual-Branch Conditional Sensitivity (DCS), an operational statistic that measures the observable gap between two locally perturbed model states. Specifically, the proposed DCS framework creates a learning branch and an unlearning branch around the deployed model, connects their displacement to the unavailable counterfactual retraining effect through influence-function analysis, and bounds the observable sensitivity by the counterfactual privacy-budget surrogate, local curvature, training-set scale, and perturbation step size. To distinguish target-specific memorization from generic fine-tuning instability, we further define a calibrated detection statistic that subtracts the sensitivity measured under orthogonal conditions. The DCS framework is instantiated for ridge-regularized linear regression, conditional diffusion models, autoregressive language models, and multimodal models. These instantiations show how the same principle can be evaluated through prediction gaps, image-embedding divergence, token-distribution or entropy shifts, and cross-modal representation changes.
Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making. Two common sources of model performance degradation are (i) covariate shift, where the target covariate distribution differs from the source, and (ii) selective labels, where the observability of outcomes depends on historical decisions. We study pre-deployment model evaluation under the joint presence of covariate shift and labeling of outcomes selectively based on observed features. In particular, we present a double machine learning procedure for estimating the target risk of an arbitrary black-box prediction model under a general loss function. We show identification of this estimand under standard assumptions and derive a bias-corrected estimator based on the influence function of the target risk. Finally, we evaluate our estimator through experiments using the eICU electronic health records database, showing that it tracks the true target risk more accurately than methods that address either selective labels or covariate shift alone, as well as baselines that combine standard plug-in approaches.