Exposure mappings are often assumed to be known in causal spillover analyses. In environmental settings, however, they are typically induced by transport processes that are not directly observed and must instead be learned from pollution data. We study how uncertainty in learned transport processes propagates into exposure mappings and downstream spillover inference under interference. We compare mechanistic transport models with modern operator-learning approaches, including PDE, PINO, FNO, and GeoPT, using both simulation studies and an empirical analysis of California PM$_{2.5}$ data. In simulations, all four transport models achieved nearly identical pollution prediction accuracy, yet estimated spillover effects ranged from 1.78 to 2.27. Models that more accurately recovered the induced exposure mapping also produced spillover estimates closer to the true effect. Disagreement was modest for regional interventions but substantially larger for localized point-source interventions. The California analysis showed the same pattern: competing transport models produced similar predictions of observed PM${2.5}$ concentrations while implying different spillover effects under hypothetical pollution-control interventions. Our findings suggest that predictive agreement alone is insufficient for reliable causal inference when exposure mappings are learned rather than directly observed.
We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings. Specifically, we consider settings where the binary outcomes over N units are Markovian across T time steps. At each time step, the outcomes of N units have dependencies captured through an Ising model; each outcome is also impacted through an external field capturing the effects of its treatment as well as latent confounders. Similar to panel data literature, these latent confounders are modeled to have a low-rank factor structure. Our data is a single sample from this high-dimensional distribution. To estimate causal quantities of interest, we provide a computationally efficient method based on Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood Estimation (MPLE) for learning the model parameters. Under mild assumptions, we establish non-asymptotic consistency for parameter estimation and show this translates to faithful estimation of causal quantities of interest after sampling from the learned model. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through synthetic experiments as well as a real-world case-study investigating causal effects of vaccine rates on COVID-19 death rates within US counties nationwide.
Robots deployed in realistic settings will accumulate experience across many sessions and tasks over their deployment. The robot's tasks may often require it to remember information from multiple sessions ago, making long-context robot memory important for real-world deployments. However, most robot-memory benchmarks today are based on single episodes or a short context. To measure how current robot memory systems perform on longer sessions with more distractions, we introduce RoboMME-Interference, a cross-session benchmark built on RoboMME (Dai et al., 2026). For each query episode, we construct a session history using the query's relevant prior demonstration followed by a controlled number of unrelated sessions, which we provide to the VLA as memory and measure accuracy. Running RoboMME's released memory-augmented $π_{0.5}$ variants unmodified through this benchmark, we find that while perceptual memory variants improve success when given the history without any distractors, they decay strongly and steadily as unrelated sessions accumulate. The subgoal variants, which read the history with a vision-language model and pass written subgoals to the policy, improve less at their best but hold more of that improvement as distractors accumulate. Adding a retrieval step to the strongest perceptual variant, which selects the section of history most visually similar to the robot's current view and passes only that section to the policy, restores its no-distractor success rate at every interference level. With this release, we emphasize the importance of long-context memory and robustness to interference and show that current systems largely fail on such capabilities. The project page, videos, code, and data are at https://robotmemorybench.com.
Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training improves large language models (LLMs) on individual domains such as mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and creative writing (CW), but training on one domain often degrades performance on others. Existing explanations based on catastrophic forgetting or global gradient conflict are incomplete: substantial interference can occur even when full-model gradients are nearly orthogonal. We show that single-domain RL produces sparse, small-magnitude parameter edits with weak overlap among top-changed neurons, while different domains still share substantial active computation routes on which update directions determine whether they act synergistically or conflict. Guided by this observation, we prove under a local perturbation model of multi-domain RL that later-domain training harms an earlier domain mainly through a second-order damage term, which under the observed sparse route structure concentrates in a low-dimensional shared conflict subspace. Moreover, a short domain refresh contracts the harmful component on this subspace, enabling selective recovery with limited collateral damage. Consistent with the theory, a brief Re-Math refresh after Code $\rightarrow$ Math $\rightarrow$ QA $\rightarrow$ CW recovers Math from 57.66 to 66.04 while largely preserving performance on the other domains, yielding the best average score of 66.39. Beyond refresh, a training-free rollback on a sparse proxy conflict coordinate set for the Math-QA pair partially restores Math, providing direct proxy-level evidence for localized damage. These results provide a localized mechanistic account of interference and recovery in multi-domain RL.